STG

Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) reports third-quarter earnings Wednesday, with CEO Sundar Pichai facing a $200 billion question: Is Google’s massive AI spending paying off?

On Kalshi, traders have wagered more than $171,000 on which words Pichai and his team will say during the call.

Analysts expect earnings of about $3.02 per share on revenue near $128 billion, up 25% from a year ago.

Alphabet shares have gained just 2% this year and sit roughly 22% below their May high.

What Kalshi Predicts Google Will Say

“Gemini” leads at 98% for at least three mentions. Google’s flagship AI powers products across Search, Workspace and Cloud, making it central to the company’s competition with OpenAI and Anthropic.

The Gemini app reached 950 million monthly users last quarter, while Google said nearly 90% of Fortune 100 companies use Gemini Enterprise. Investors will be watching whether that adoption translates into revenue.

“AI Mode” follows at 92%. Google’s conversational search feature faces a more immediate financial test: whether AI-powered answers can generate as much advertising revenue as traditional search.

“Nvidia” trades at 84%. Google Cloud rents out Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) GPUs, but its own Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), are emerging as a challenge to Nvidia’s dominance.

Oracle announced Tuesday it will offer Google’s TPUs to cloud customers starting in 2027, potentially expanding Google’s chip business beyond its own cloud platform.

“Wiz” sits at 79%. Google completed its $32 billion acquisition of the cloud security firm in March, expanding its enterprise offering.

“Headwind” is at 76%. CFO Anat Ashkenazi warned that currency movements could weigh on third-quarter Search and YouTube advertising revenue.

"Chrome" trades at 73%. The world’s most popular browser drives traffic to Google’s lucrative Search business and now integrates Gemini, turning it into a key distribution channel for Google’s AI.

A federal judge rejected a forced sale of Chrome last year, but the Justice Department is appealing that decision.

What Kalshi Predicts Google Will Skip

“Regulator,” “Regulation” or “Regulatory” trades at 23%, despite Google’s ongoing legal battles over Search.

“Ironwood” trades at just 16%. Google unveiled its eighth-generation AI chips, TPU 8t and TPU 8i, in April, promising major performance improvements over Ironwood. Traders may expect Pichai to focus on the newer chips instead.

“SpaceX” is at 14%. Alphabet’s stake in Elon Musk’s SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) was worth $94 billion at the end of June, and Google agreed to pay the company $920 million monthly for AI computing capacity.

Reading the Board

Google Cloud revenue is expected to reach $29 billion, nearly double last year’s figure. But keeping up with that demand is becoming increasingly expensive.

Alphabet plans to spend $195 billion to $205 billion on capital investments this year. Bank of America analyst Justin Post sees potential upside from Cloud growth and TPU sales, but estimates spending could climb to $300 billion in 2027.

That’s another $100 billion a year, raising questions about when Google’s AI investments will deliver stronger cash flow.

Pichai needs to show investors not just how fast Google’s AI business is growing, but how much money it can actually make.

Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.

Image: Shutterstock