The countdown is on, and SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) is heading toward one of its biggest tests since its Wall Street debut. Elon Musk's space and AI giant is set to report third-quarter earnings after Tuesday's closing bell, and investors have good reason to hope for a turnaround. The stock has shed nearly 15% of its value over the past eight trading sessions, taking some of the shine off its latest rally.

While Tuesday's results could determine where the stock goes next, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas believes investors should be thinking much further ahead. In a weekend research report, he suggested the market may be overlooking an opportunity that could fundamentally change how SpaceX is valued.

"SpaceX's underappreciated value to investors is its central role in building the Physical Intelligence Economy (PIE). We believe the PIE is ultimately multiples of global GDP while also consequential for national sovereignty," Jonas wrote.

If Jonas is right, traditional aerospace and telecommunications valuations may eventually prove inadequate for assessing SpaceX's potential. The analyst envisions a future where robotics, autonomous systems, and artificial intelligence create entirely new opportunities for Musk's sprawling technological empire.

For now, however, Tuesday's financial report will provide the next opportunity to test the market's confidence.

Jonas expects quarterly revenue of $13 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $6.9 billion, and earnings of $0.19 per share. The analyst also anticipates 14.3 million consumer Starlink subscribers, generating average monthly revenue of $63.60 per customer.

Yet, strong financial performance alone might not be enough to satisfy investors. Concerns surrounding SpaceX's costly computing expansion continue to weigh on sentiment, particularly regarding electricity availability, construction timelines, and future financing requirements. Jonas' projections call for debt issuance of $60 billion in 2027, followed by $80 billion in 2028 and another $90 billion in 2029. Skepticism also remains over whether Musk can deliver the computing capacity he has previously outlined.

The analyst, however, sees the market's hesitation as an opportunity worth considering.

"Complacency is opportunity. The rest of the year is setting up to be a rich, upside-skewed catalyst path, beginning with Flight 15 and a possible ship catch (first half Nov) – potentially the largest catalyst since IPO," Jonas opined.

That upcoming Starship mission could give investors another reason to reconsider their expectations before November is over. Successfully catching the returning spacecraft would mark an important step toward full reusability, potentially reducing launch costs and supporting more frequent satellite deployments.

The analyst also believes the stock's current valuation leaves considerable room for appreciation, particularly within its AI operations. At $146 per share, Jonas' calculations assign $127 to the company's space and connectivity activities, leaving just $19 attributable to AI. That implies investors are paying only about twice estimated 2028 sales for the computing division, despite its considerable expansion potential.

Tuesday's earnings call could therefore become a turning point for SPCX, with investors looking beyond quarterly profits for updates on Starship Flight 15, computing capacity, and capital spending. Whether those developments can reverse the recent selloff remains to be seen.

Against this backdrop, Jonas assigns SPCX shares an Overweight (i.e., Buy) rating, while his $300 price target suggests the stock could more than double over the next 12 months. (To watch Jonas' track record, click here)

Jonas may be aiming high, but the rest of Wall Street isn't exactly betting against SpaceX either. Among 35 analysts covering SPCX, 28 recommend buying, 5 prefer sitting on the sidelines, and only 2 advise selling, giving the stock a Moderate Buy consensus rating. The average 12-month price target of $217.50 suggests nearly 49% upside from current levels. (See SPCX stock forecast)