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Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has ticked off another point of its bearish checklist, according to prominent analyst Benjamin Cowen, who argues a drop following Wednesday’s FOMC meeting is in play.

Why Cowen Says the Fed’s Pause Fits His Playbook

Cowen posted on X Thursday that the Fed holding rates steady at its FOMC meeting marks the third confirmed item on his bearish roadmap after Bitcoin’s second weekly close below $83,000 and what he’s calling a confirmed fakeout.

Meanwhile, Cowen said on his YouTube video Thursday that the Fed’s decision to hold rates looked hard to justify given a hotter-than-expected producer price index reading, which climbed to 6.35% year over year. 

He compared the situation to 2018, when the Fed paused around the midterms before resuming hikes in December.

He flagged Thursday’s PCE inflation report as the next catalyst, where prices rose 3.6% year-over-year as reported by Benzinga.

Cowen said rising oil prices tend to show up in PCE data with a lag, pointing to WTI crude’s May peak, summer dip and recent rebound as a signal inflation could run hot again.

Cowen expects the 10-year Treasury yield to rally back toward 5.3%, pointing to a seasonal pattern where yields bottomed in late October during both the 2018 and 2022 midterm cycles before rallying into the elections. 

Bitcoin and stocks could drop, while oil may push toward $120 a barrel on Iran war tensions.

Why Cowen Points to a Repeating Pattern Across Global Markets

Cowen said several major indexes, including gold, South Korea’s KOSPI and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, have all formed three distinct lows in 2026: one in the first quarter, one over the summer, and now a potential fourth-quarter low forming. 

He argued Bitcoin could follow the same pattern, having already carved out its first two lows earlier this year.

He also pointed to Bitcoin’s selloff ahead of the SpaceX IPO as a precedent worth watching again, suggesting investors may pull capital from crypto to fund upcoming IPO allocations, including Anthropic’s expected debut in mid-November.

On timing, Cowen flagged Bitcoin’s historical post-rate-hike pattern in midterm years: prices typically stay flat for roughly 50 days before dropping, and Bitcoin currently sits on day 43 of that window. 

He noted all of Bitcoin’s major cycle-bottom drops in 2014, 2018 and 2022 occurred after the midterm elections, not before them, reinforcing his view that a fourth-quarter low remains firmly on the table.

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