Key Points

STI: 5,423 (-0.13%) on Wednesday; $DBS (D05.SG)$ S$74.34, $OCBC (O39.SG)$ S$29.00, $UOB (U11.SG)$ S$41.06.

MAS: held policy on Oct 14, pausing after two tightenings, and narrowed its 2026 core-inflation forecast to 1.5-2.0%.

Overnight: hot US CPI (3.7% y/y) sank the Nasdaq 1.9% and hit AI-chip names.

Today: TSMC Q3 results land around 2:00 pm SGT; US PPI, retail sales and jobless claims follow at 8:30 pm SGT.

Singapore Open

The Straits Times Index closed at 5,423 on Wednesday, slipping 0.13%, as profit-taking in the heavyweight banks kept a lid on the index after its September record run. $DBS (D05.SG)$ eased 0.17% to S$74.34, $OCBC (O39.SG)$ fell 0.68% to S$29.00 and $UOB (U11.SG)$ added 0.32% to S$41.06. $Singtel (Z74.SG)$ slipped 0.48% to S$4.14.

The three banks - roughly half the STI's weighting - remain the swing factor ahead of their third-quarter results in November. A pause from the MAS (below) removes one tightening overhang for rate-sensitive names, but higher-for-longer US rates still make a net-interest-margin recovery a Q4 story at the earliest.

Singapore Macro

The MAS held monetary policy steady on Oct 14, surprising most economists - 17 of 20 in a Bloomberg poll had expected a steeper slope. It kept the S$NEER appreciation band's slope, width and midpoint unchanged, and narrowed its 2026 core-inflation forecast to 1.5-2.0% (from 1.5-2.5%), with headline inflation seen around 2%. Advance estimates put Q3 GDP growth at 5.4% year-on-year, cooling from 5.9% in Q2.

Why it matters for SGX: the pause signals the MAS is comfortable that price pressures ease from mid-2027, with the S$NEER already in the upper half of its band doing the heavy lifting. For banks and REITs, that dials back the tightening risk that spooked the market in early October, without adding fresh policy headwinds. The offset is the hot US CPI, which keeps global rates and the Fed on alert into the Oct 27-28 FOMC meeting.

US Overnight

US equities fell after September CPI printed at 3.7% year-on-year, a four-month high, with core inflation accelerating to 2.6%. The S&P 500 dropped 1.1% (86 points), the Nasdaq Composite sank 1.9% - its worst day since July - and the Dow slipped 0.1% (48 points). Treasury yields and the dollar rose, and market-implied odds of a Fed hike at the Oct 27-28 meeting climbed to roughly a third-to-40%. Bucking the trend, $Apple (AAPL.US)$ rose 0.5% to $342.96, closing above a $5 trillion market cap, the second company after Nvidia to hit the mark.

Key Movers

$Nvidia (NVDA.US)$ -3.2% - led the AI-chip retreat as the hotter-than-expected inflation print revived rate fears across the semiconductor complex. CEO Jensen Huang separately said Nvidia would be willing to halt chip supply to customers building unsafe AI, while calling that scenario hypothetical.

$TSMC (TSM.US)$ -3.4% - fell to $430 ahead of today's Q3 results as investors locked in gains and fretted over margin dilution from the 2nm ramp and heavy capex. The ADR has beaten EPS estimates for eight straight quarters, raising the bar for Thursday's print and guidance.

$CoreWeave (CRWV.US)$ -16%, $Oracle (ORCL.US)$ -9% - concerns that AI-infrastructure names are funding the boom with heavy debt hit hardest. $Dell (DELL.US)$ fell about 11% in sympathy, and Micron, AMD and Intel slid alongside.

Asia Pre-Market

US equity futures pointed modestly lower early Thursday - S&P 500 futures about 0.4% down and Nasdaq futures about 0.9% down - extending Wednesday's losses. WTI firmed to around $94 a barrel, gold settled at $4,107.9 an ounce (down 1.6%) after the hot CPI, and Bitcoin traded near $104,800, down about 1.9%.

The soft futures point to a cautious SGX open. TSMC's results at 2:00 pm SGT are the key catalyst for the semiconductor complex, with tonight's US PPI and retail sales the next read on the inflation path.

Today's US Earnings and Economic Calendar

Earnings Spotlight: $TSMC (TSM.US)$ reports Q3 today (results ~2:00 pm SGT, 2:00 am ET before the US open). Consensus is $4.45 per ADR on $45.5 billion revenue, versus $2.92 and $32.36 billion a year earlier. Preliminary Q3 revenue already hit a record NT$1.49 trillion (about $46.7 billion), up 50.9% year-on-year and above the July guidance range, so the focus is on Q4 guidance, gross margin (guided 65-67%) and capex. With the chip selloff still fresh, a strong print could steady the complex - a weak one would compound it.

One More Thing

The tell for the rest of the week is whether the chip selloff is a rate-driven de-rating or a fundamental break. TSMC's revenue is still growing 51% year-on-year, so the earnings story looks intact - what broke Wednesday was the multiple, after CPI revived hike fears. If TSMC's guidance holds and tonight's PPI and retail sales cool, the rotation-out-of-expensive-AI argument regains the upper hand; if not, expect the de-rating to broaden. On the local side, the MAS has already done its part by pausing, which should keep Singapore's rate overhang contained even if the US stays jittery.

Sources: MAS Monetary Policy Statement (Oct 14, 2026); The Business Times; CNBC; Reuters.

This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.