M Stanley: Greater China Semiconductor AI Outlook Positive, Memory Innovation Key; Sector Rated 'Attractive'
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.Morgan Stanley rates the Greater China semiconductor sector 'Attractive', highlighting AI prospects and memory innovation. The bank projects the global semiconductor market to reach $1.5 trillion by 2030, with AI semiconductors comprising half. Cloud capex is surging, supporting memory demand. TSMC may expand CoWoS capacity, while HBM consumption grows. DRAM and NAND remain in shortage, sustaining prices.
Morgan Stanley issued a research report stating that its view on the Greater China semiconductor sector is "Attractive", with core themes centered on AI semiconductor prospects and memory innovation. The bank expects the global semiconductor industry market to reach around USD1.5 trillion by 2030, with AI semiconductors contributing about half of the total. It also expects AI semiconductor total addressable market (TAM) to reach about USD753 billion by 2030, representing a CAGR of about 30% from 2023 to 2030. Under an optimistic scenario driven by supply chain data, cloud AI semiconductor TAM could increase to USD485 billion in 2026.
The bank noted that the outlook for cloud semiconductors is becoming clearer. Capital expenditure of the four major cloud service providers, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) , Google, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US) and Meta Platforms, Inc. (META.US) , rose 87% YoY in 2Q26, while the capital expenditure-to-EBITDA ratio exceeded 70%. The bank estimates that global cloud capital expenditure could approach USD1.4 trillion in 2027 among the top 14 listed global cloud service providers, excluding sovereign AI, with memory expected to account for about half of total global cloud capital expenditure in 2027. Utilization rates for logic semiconductor foundries may reach 80% in 2H26. Excluding memory and NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) AI GPU revenue, non-AI semiconductor growth is expected to decline in 2026. The bank also stated that both DRAM and NAND remain in supply shortage, supporting elevated memory prices.
The bank said that amid persistently strong AI demand, TSMC may expand CoWoS capacity to 260,000 wafers per month before 2028. HBM consumption is projected to reach about 44 billion Gb in 2027, with NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) remaining the major HBM consumer. Overall 2.5D packaging capacity is still expected to grow 50% YoY in 2028. The bank also outlined directions for memory innovation including process migration, design, packaging, peripherals and integration, and estimated memory innovation TAM excluding HBM at about USD25 billion. (da/u)(Real-time Streaming US Stocks Quote; Except All OTC quotes are at least 15 minutes delayed.)