Leading AI companies are using private capital to control the timing of their public-market debuts as the U.S. IPO market cools.

While macroeconomic conditions—including 10-year Treasury yields exceeding 5%—have prompted prospective issuers across consumer hardware, energy, and dining sectors to postpone or withdraw public listings, major AI developers retain the financial flexibility to set their own public entry timelines.

The Private Capital Buffer in AI

Major AI firms are leveraging private funding rounds to defer public market debuts while continuing high-capital infrastructure investments.

OpenAI has ruled out a 2026 IPO, while Anthropic is reportedly targeting a November debut, according to company reports and market filings.

“I’d call OpenAI pushing back its IPO a deferral, not a defection. Anthropic is still lining up a November debut, and OpenAI pushed to 2027 rather than walking away,” said Luke Lango, technology analyst and editor of Innovation Investor.

“The math eventually forces the issue. These companies are spending on compute at a scale no private round can fund forever. Only the public markets are deep enough for both equity and the debt needed to build data centers. What has changed is leverage. The top labs can raise enormous sums privately, so they don’t have to list into a bad tape. They’ll go public on their own timeline. That’s a luxury only the top two or three players have. Everyone else in AI still needs the IPO window.”

Both firms previously initiated public listing processes earlier in the year. Anthropic announced a confidential filing on June 1, and OpenAI submitted a draft prospectus to the SEC in June, according to Vested CEO Viram Shah.

“I don’t see a permanent shift,” Shah said. “Sam Altman said OpenAI would not list this year because of AI safety concerns, not to avoid public scrutiny. Anthropic’s reported delay is one month, so it can show third-quarter numbers first. What has changed is how much private markets can now provide. OpenAI raised $122 billion in March and is reportedly seeking at least $30 billion more at about $1.4 trillion. That gives these companies control over their timing. At this size, though, they will eventually need public markets for long-term capital and to give employees and early investors a way to sell.”

Arthur Azizov, CEO and Founder at B2BROKER Group, also pointed out the boundaries of private liquidity. “Right now, they simply have enough private capital to refrain from going public on quite unfavorable terms,” Azizov said. “Yet private liquidity has its limits as well. At some point, I guess, early investors and employees will want real liquidity, while the amounts required to finance frontier AI keep growing and public markets will probably remain part of that equation.”

Conditions Required to Reopen the IPO Window

Market analysts outline specific macroeconomic and performance benchmarks necessary for broader public listing activity to resume.

Seven sizable U.S. IPOs were postponed or pulled in the third quarter of 2026, compared to four in the second quarter and three in the first quarter, according to Vested data.

Analysts identify key factors required to stabilize the market:

• Treasury Yield Stabilization: Lango stated that “yields don’t need to fall much, they need to stop spiking.” Shah noted that “the 10-year yield rose 0.54 percentage points in September alone. Companies don’t need low rates, but they need steady ones to price a deal with confidence.”
• Federal Reserve Policy Clarity: Analysts point to a clear signal from the Federal Reserve that the rate-hiking cycle is paused as a key variable.
• Hyperscaler Expenditure Metrics: Lango highlighted the late-October earnings reports from major cloud providers to confirm that AI capital expenditures are generating revenue.
• Aftermarket Performance of Landmark Deals: Successful trading in upcoming listings could provide market confirmation. “If Anthropic lists in November and holds up, that’s the green light,” Lango said.

Dean Chen, analyst at Bitunix Exchange, expects a selective recovery timeline. “Once rates stop putting additional pressure on valuations, recent IPOs demonstrate decent aftermarket performance, and private-market expectations move closer to public-market pricing, I think more companies will be willing to test the market again,” Chen said. “The companies that can wait will keep waiting until the price is right. The companies that need capital will have less flexibility.”

Rising Treasury Yields and Valuation Compression

Higher benchmark interest rates are increasing discount rates and squeezing valuations for non-AI growth issuers.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.29% on Sept. 29, a 19-year high, following a rate hike by the Federal Reserve on Sept. 16, according to market data cited by Vested. Consequently, average post-IPO stock returns for 2026 U.S. debuts dropped from a 24% gain over the offer price at the end of June to less than 1% by late September, according to Dealogic data reported by The Wall Street Journal.

Smart-ring maker Oura postponed its planned $2.2 billion U.S. listing on Sept. 29, citing market uncertainty, Reuters reported. The company had generated $61 million in profit on $1.2 billion in sales across the first three quarters of its fiscal year, with expected full-year revenue growth of 90%, according to Vested. However, potential investors raised concerns over its target valuation of approximately $15.6 billion and single-product exposure, The Wall Street Journal reported.

“Oura’s numbers are strong,” Shah said. “It still stepped back, and the main reason is the bond market… When safe bonds pay over 5%, investors pay less today for growth that comes later. Good financials will get a company a hearing, but not its full price.”

Lango attributed the pause to rate-driven valuation shifts. “Oura didn’t have a demand problem. It had a price problem,” Lango said. “Investors wanted the stock, just not at the top of the range. That’s what a 10-year yield at its highest level since 2007 does. It doesn’t erase good fundamentals; it reprices them.”

Similar delays have occurred across other industries. Nuclear services company Holtec International withdrew its U.S. IPO filing, SoftBank-backed SB Energy delayed its listing date following valuation pushback, and Inspire Brands deferred IPO consideration, according to reports by Reuters and The Wall Street Journal.

“Delays are OK,” said Louis Navellier, founder, CEO and CIO of Navellier & Associates. “It is imperative that IPOs post positive earnings ASAP. Otherwise, they risk severe selling pressure like SpaceX has when it announced operating losses.”

Azizov noted that profitability allows companies to choose their entry window. “A profitable company can still get a lower valuation when the cost of capital is high, but strong financial results give the company one important advantage: it can wait,” Azizov said. “So, if the market is weak, the company doesn’t have to go public just because it’s ready.”

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