While the U.S. and China compete fiercely across multiple sectors, commercial space has been a sector that has seen Washington maintain an edge over Beijing. However, analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies warn that China’s commercial space industry boom could change that.

600 Chinese Commercial Space Firms Exist Today

According to the report published on Wednesday, the number of Chinese firms, since Beijing opened up the industry to private investment, grew from a few “dozen firms to some 600 today,” the report said. It also pointed to two Chinese firms, Guowang and Thousand Sails, that plan on deploying 10,000 satellites to compete with Starlink, the report said.

The firm, which is led by Kari Bingen, a former Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence under the President Donald Trump administration from 2017 to 2020, says that “commercial launch and satellite broadband have
emerged as the clearest examples of Beijing’s ambitions.” The report pointed to the establishment of at least 10 start-ups as direct competitors to State-run Long March.

“U.S. policymakers must understand these dynamics now, before the United States finds itself outpaced in sheer industrial capacity and output,” the firm said, adding that the companies were capable of producing 4,100–5,000 satellites via “gigafactories” and “smart factories.”

SpaceX As the Benchmark

The report then said that Elon Musk-led Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) had “become both a benchmark and catalyst for China’s launch startups and satellite broadband ventures, with entrepreneurs emulating the Falcon 9 and Starlink playbook.”

Companies like Thousand Sails have pursued agreements with Brazilian as well as Indonesian companies to “expand rural satellite internet,” the report mentioned, while GalaxySpace, another Chinese firm, “positioned Thailand as a regional hub providing integrated networking solutions and secured agreements in more than 10 countries.”

The firm points to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which consolidates “market-oriented space services such as broadband, imagery, and broadcasting to partner nations,” via the “Space Silk Road” or the “Spatial Information Corridor,” the report said.

Notably, NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman had earlier said that the U.S. was in a space race with China, with Beijing targeting a moon landing by 2029, he said.

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