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Just five years after its founding, Anthropic could become more valuable than all Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) in circulation, with Polymarket traders giving the AI company a 77% chance of overtaking the cryptocurrency before year-end.

Anthropic filed its IPO prospectus Monday, ahead of an expected November Nasdaq debut under the ticker ANT. Investors have reportedly discussed valuations between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion, although the company has yet to disclose an offering price.

Bitcoin’s market capitalization stood around $1.61 trillion Monday, according to CoinGecko.

At a $1.75 trillion valuation, Anthropic would already be worth roughly $140 billion more than Bitcoin. Even at $1.5 trillion, a Bitcoin decline of about 7%, to roughly $74,600, could put the AI company ahead.

Why Anthropic Could Be Worth So Much

Anthropic generated $4.6 billion in revenue throughout 2025, according to its prospectus. By the third quarter of 2026, it was bringing in $16.8 billion in just three months, nearly four times its entire previous year’s sales.

That single quarter even surpassed the $16.3 billion Anthropic generated in the first six months of 2026, itself a 14 fold increase from a year earlier.

At its third-quarter pace, the Claude developer was generating the equivalent of more than $67 billion annually.

Reuters previously reported that Anthropic projects annual revenue of $190 billion to $200 billion by 2028, helping explain the enormous valuations investors have considered.

Some investors have nevertheless lowered their IPO valuation expectations toward $1.5 trillion as quarterly revenue growth has slowed, according to Reuters.

Technology investor Paul Kedrosky recently warned Benzinga that cheaper, smaller AI models could threaten premium providers like Anthropic, as most consumers and businesses may not need expensive, cutting-edge models for everyday tasks.

What Polymarket Traders Are Betting On

The Polymarket contract has attracted approximately $209,000 in trading volume.

Under its rules, Anthropic only needs to exceed Bitcoin’s market capitalization once before Dec. 31.

A confirmed IPO valuation could resolve the contract before shares begin trading. A qualifying private funding valuation also counts.

Is AI Stealing Crypto’s Spotlight?

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, argued in a June memo that AI stocks, robotics companies and SpaceX were drawing investors away from cryptocurrencies.

“With AI sucking all the oxygen out of the room,” he wrote, crypto was becoming a contrarian investment rather than a momentum trade.

In an Oct. 14 memo, Hougan argued that an AI crash could initially drag Bitcoin lower before government intervention and monetary expansion fuel a recovery.

Traders on Polymarket give the AI bubble just a 10% chance of bursting by Dec. 31, rising to 23% by June 2027. The market has attracted more than $3.1 million in trading volume.

“Money supply surges and bitcoin rallies hard,” Hougan wrote, describing a scenario in which Bitcoin eventually benefits from an AI crash.

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