ZURA

On Polymarket, the "US-Iran ceasefire holds through November 2" contract is priced at 79%, down 19 percentage points over the past 24 hours, on $1.2M of 24h volume. The contract settles on November 3; a week ago the reading was about 79% and 24 hours ago about 98%, and it has now fallen back to 79%. The Associated Press reported on November 3, citing officials, that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is urging the Trump administration to carry out a new round of strikes on Iran, which coincided with the weakening in the ceasefire-extension probability over the past day.

Market Implication

Whether the US-Iran ceasefire holds bears on Middle East energy supply and on overall risk appetite: a lower probability reading means pricing of a de-escalation in the region has loosened, and both uncertainty over energy supply and swings in risk appetite flow into the macro pricing environment, forming a trackable macro thread for the valuation backdrop of stocks and ETFs. (Note: prediction market data reflects crowd sentiment, not certainty, and is provided here as a market indicator only.)

Elsewhere in Prediction Markets

Largest 2026 IPO: on Polymarket, the "largest IPO by market cap in 2026" contract prices Anthropic at 28%, down 14.7 percentage points over 24 hours, on $55K of 24h volume, down from about 39% a week ago; the contract settles on January 2, 2027.

Pakistan military action against Afghanistan: on Polymarket, the contract on Pakistan taking military action against Afghanistan before November 30 is priced at 42%, down 11.5 percentage points over 24 hours, on $53K of 24h volume; it also read about 42% a week ago, a zero 7-day change.

North Carolina's 13th District: on Polymarket, the probability that Republican Brad Knott wins the House seat is 66%, up 11 percentage points over 24 hours, on $77K of 24h volume; the contract settles on November 4.

Bitcoin November price: on Polymarket, the contract on bitcoin touching $80,000 within November is priced at 70%, down 11 percentage points over 24 hours, on $70K of 24h volume; it read about 70% a week ago and about 81% 24 hours ago, back at 70% now, a zero 7-day change.

Methodology: volumes above are 24-hour taker notional (shares traded x traded price) on both platforms. Kalshi contract volume is converted to US dollars at the traded price so the two platforms are directly comparable.

Please note: The figures above are sourced from public prediction market platforms (Polymarket, Kalshi) and represent aggregated market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by Longbridge. Longbridge does not offer prediction market trading. This content is for informational reference only and does not constitute investment advice.