ZURA

US equities closed last week lower, with the S&P 500 at 7,376.86 after a 2.68% weekly fall, the Nasdaq Composite at 24,579.42 (down 3.37%) and the Dow at 51,285.73 (down 0.94%); Singapore's Straits Times Index shed 3.67% to 5,179.17. Two tests set this week's tone: Tuesday's US inflation print, which decides whether a December rate move stays in play, and Thursday's AI hardware earnings from Applied Materials and Cisco.

Earnings calendar

The pressure is concentrated in the names reporting. Applied Materials closed Friday at 332.715, roughly 15% lower over the week, and Cisco at 93.85 after a fall of about 10%. Consensus looks for revenue near $10.3bn and $18.1bn respectively, with EPS estimates around $4.00 and $1.07; chip-equipment order commentary and enterprise and data-centre guidance will be read as demand signals for the wider complex. Petroleo Brasileiro reports Tuesday with revenue expected near $32.3bn, and Friday brings three Japanese banks in Mitsubishi UFJ, Mizuho and Sumitomo Mitsui.

Singapore's slate is the heavier of the two. SGX and Singapore Airlines report after Wednesday's close, ST Engineering — consensus revenue about S$3.55bn — and Sembcorp Industries follow on Thursday, and Singtel opens Friday with half-year results before the market.

Economic calendar

Monday is Asia-led: China's October CPI is expected at 0.8% year on year, down from 0.9%, with euro-zone November Sentix sentiment at 2.1 from 2.7 and US September wholesale trade after a 1.8% prior rise. Tuesday carries almost everything else — China's October trade surplus is forecast at about $125bn against $133.53bn, and US October CPI is seen at 3.9% year on year from 3.7%, with core at 2.8% from 2.6% and core month-on-month at 0.2% from 0.3%. The calendar then empties out: no top-tier US data from Wednesday to Friday, no central-bank decision scheduled in either market, and no top-tier Singapore release.

US: what to watch

Rates are doing the damage. A Guotai Haitong research note argued that a stronger-than-expected payrolls rebound removes the case for the Fed to wait and puts a 25bp December hike in play, with December pricing at 76.8% in that note. A softer CPI would lower the urgency without settling direction, so the market's read of the print matters more than the number itself. The AI complex is the second leg: the Nasdaq is reportedly about 12% below its high, Nvidia roughly 23% below its peak, and Micron trades at about 3.7 times FY2027 estimated earnings even with take-or-pay contracts covering over 35% of revenue. Applied Materials and Cisco are the week's read on whether that de-rating has run its course.

Singapore: what to watch

The STI's 3.67% weekly fall to 5,179.17 marks a pullback after a strong run, and the index heavyweights will decide whether it stabilises. ST Engineering, down about 9% last week, reports after a heavy week for the stock, while SGX, Singtel and Sembcorp carry the domestic earnings narrative across three sessions. Regional sentiment has some support: China's State Council put capital-market stability on its agenda for the first time, and PBoC gold reserves rose for a 24th consecutive month. Oil-sensitive offshore and marine names remain exposed to Iran headlines.

Risks to watch

US-Iran talks are the largest external variable. Trump said renewed strikes are "highly unlikely" if nuclear and Hormuz progress is made, while three carriers are deployed, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the two sides remain far from a breakthrough — any change in the Strait of Hormuz would move crude, shipping and offshore marine names. On rates, a hot CPI revives December hike pricing and compresses equity multiples further. Washington's $1.5tn defence budget, whose 44% increase faces congressional opposition, is a second-order risk for defence suppliers. And the AI trade has not finished repricing: a cautious capex guide from either Thursday reporter would extend the Nasdaq's drawdown.

For information only; not investment advice.