Memory Just Puked 11% in Two Days. Here Is What I Actually Did
Two days, down about 11% across the memory names. Micron broke a thousand dollars and closed at 975, Sandisk swung four hundred dollars intraday and still finished down 13%. My account was not fun to look at. So instead of posting vibes, here is exactly what I did and why.
First, what I got wrong
I added to Sandisk at 2100 during Wednesday's morning pump because I have the memory of a goldfish and it closed at 2032. That was a dumb add into a vertical candle and I own it. I have traded enough of these cycles to know better and I still did it. If you are down today too, you are not alone, and the fix is not to panic sell the bottom of a two day flush.
Why I am still long the cycle
The thing that keeps me in is not hope, it is HBM. High bandwidth memory is hard to make, yields are punishing, and capacity takes years to add. Micron just guided around 50 billion dollars for Q4 revenue. You do not put out a number like that into a real glut. The bear case that ran the tape this week is the price fixing suit plus supply glut fear plus Burry publicly shorting Micron and calling it a bubble. Notice those are all narrative, not demand data. When the story turns to lawsuits and famous shorts, the near term demand is usually fine.
The catalyst nobody is pricing this week
SK Hynix lists ADRs on the Nasdaq on July 10, a raise around 29 billion dollars, the biggest ADR in history, and they own roughly 60% of the HBM market. You do not race to fund that much new capacity unless your customers cannot get enough. That listing is a confirmation of the multi year buildout, not the top of a bubble, and it lands in a week.
How I am actually positioned
I trimmed a third of my Sandisk into the morning spike out of pure fear and kept the rest. I added a starter to $Micron Tech(MU.US) under 1000 and I will only add more under 900. For the piece I do not want to babysit I hold $Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM.US)$ so one ugly single stock day does not wreck me. My real risk is not Burry, it is hyperscaler capex. The day a big buyer signals a pause, I am gone. Until the demand data actually turns, I am staying long the winners with a hand near the exit and not adding into vertical candles ever again.
Not financial advice, just what a slightly bruised account did today.
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