Nvidia Held $200 Through a Bear Market Scare and Just Got Cleared Back Into China. The Moat Keeps Widening.
While memory crashed and recovered and Intel got left for dead, Nvidia just quietly held the line at 200 and closed around 203. Then the news that actually matters landed: China cleared Alibaba, ByteDance and DeepSeek to buy H200 chips for training. The company everyone keeps trying to write the obituary for just got handed back a piece of the largest AI market on earth.
Why the China clearance is a bigger deal than it looks
For months the bear case has included "China is designing Nvidia out with DeepSeek's own chip." Then China turns around and approves H200 purchases, admitting that for frontier training you still need Nvidia. The approval covers fewer than 200,000 chips and training only, so it is limited, but the signal is huge: even the country most motivated to build an alternative still lines up to buy the real thing. That is what an unbreachable moat looks like in practice.
The valuation still does not make sense for a bubble
Nvidia sits around 203, below its all-time high of about 235, trading at a forward P/E near 21 or 22. That is roughly the S&P 500 average multiple for the single most important company in the biggest capex wave in tech history. Meanwhile Meta just said it wants to nearly double its compute to 14 gigawatts next year. Every hyperscaler capex headline is a direct read-through to Nvidia demand, and they keep getting bigger, not smaller.
What actually held the stock up
On the worst day for chips this month, Nvidia was the name that would not break. That is not luck, it is money concentrating into the highest-conviction position when the sector gets scary. Buyers do not abandon the leader in a shakeout, they consolidate into it. The Kyber delay rumor got denied, the China door reopened, and the demand signals from Meta and the neoclouds keep stacking. The bear needs a story. The bull just needs the roadmap and the orders.
How I am positioned
I hold $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) as my core AI position. I did not add on the way down because it never gave me a real flush, and I am not chasing it toward the highs now. My plan is simple: hold the core, add only on a genuine market-wide washout, and let the demand keep compounding. With the stock below its ATH, a reasonable multiple, and China buying again, this is the last name in my book I would ever sell in a panic.
Not financial advice, just reading the moat.
The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.
