BofA: 3Q Memory
Key Takeaways from the 3Q Contract Price Check> Strong Server DRAM Pricing: Up 20–30% QoQ, spearheaded by high-speed LPDDR5 (compared to the market consensus of 20% or less). > Upbeat Spot Demand: Spot demand is healthy, driven by commodity DDR5 and legacy DDR4, with July prices increasing Month-on-Month (MoM). > Transition to HBM4: There is a near-term rise in orders shifting toward higher-priced HBM4 over the cheaper HBM3e. > Lower Long-Term Agreements (LTAs): LTA-based sales represent well below 50% of total DRAM sales (non-LTA portion is at 60–70%), allowing for solid QoQ price increases (e.g., 5–10%) that are often settled even under existing LTAs. > Rush Orders: Sudden OEM rush orders confirm a QoQ price increase of over 20% for both commodity DRAM and NAND. > Optimistic ASP Outlook: BofA forecasts a 21% QoQ rise in 3Q DRAM ASP, which is significantly more optimistic than TrendForce's assumptions (13–18% QoQ for conventional DRAM, or only 8–13% including HBM). Spot Market Dynamics > Price Rallies: DRAM spot prices have risen for eight consecutive weeks, defying earlier expectations of a price cap at US$35–40 for 16Gb DDR5. > OEM Buying Behavior: Having previously cut device production to resist the spot-price rally, OEMs are now actively purchasing memory chips to prepare for high sales in September and the peak 4Q season. > NAND Recovery: NAND spot prices rebounded, driven by a 4% Week-on-Week (WoW) rise in 1Tb wafers, supporting expectations of a 10%+ NAND ASP rise in 3Q.$DRAM $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Western Digital(WDC.US) $EWY
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