BofA: Google $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) Earnings Preview
2Q'26 Financial Estimates vs. Consensus> Net Revenue: Estimated at $102.1bn (up 25% y/y) vs. Street consensus of $101.0bn. > GAAP EPS: Estimated at $8.38 vs. Street consensus of $2.90. > Other Income Benefit: BofA's significantly higher EPS estimate includes a $80bn one-time mark-to-market benefit from the revaluation of Alphabet’s stake in Anthropic (Anthropic's valuation reportedly surged from $380bn in 1Q to $965bn in 2Q)Segment Performance & Model Revisions> Google Cloud Strength: BofA raised its 2Q Google Cloud growth estimate to 70% y/y ($23.2bn in revenue) driven by accelerating AI demand and a strong backlog. Anthropic has reportedly committed to spending $200bn on Google Cloud over the next 5 years. > Google Search: Expected to grow 17% y/y to $63.6bn. Strong retail search growth is being slightly offset by softness in travel and consumer packaged goods (CPG), alongside minor FX headwinds. > YouTube Advertising: Estimated at $10.8bn (up 10% y/y), which is inline with the Street. Growth is decelerating modestly due to tougher comparisons and automated tools (like PMax) shifting client budgets to Search. > Long-term Revisions (Full Year 2026): Net revenue estimates were raised by 1% to $427bn and full-year EPS estimates increased by 36% to $19.70.Capex Expansion & Infrastructure Leases> Capital Expenditures: BofA notes that higher component pricing (e.g., memory/DRAM) and accelerating AI demand could push Google to increase its CY26 capex range by ~5% to $190–$200bn (BofA models $196bn). 2Q capex is modeled at $50.1bn (up 123% y/y). > SpaceX GPU Lease: On June 5, 2026, Alphabet entered a multi-year agreement to lease 110,000 NVIDIA GPUs from SpaceX, committing to a payment of ~$920mn per month from October 2026 through June 2029 to secure immediate capacity. > Massive Capital Raise: Alphabet raised $85bn in capital ($44.75bn in equity capital/strategic investment and a planned $40bn ATM equity program) alongside issuing $17bn in Euro and Canadian dollar debt to fund AI infrastructure and tax obligations.
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