$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

This is an update of my earlier post and am readjusting my target estimate closing based on the latest information.

My latest closing price estimate for August 27th close is 225.5.

I arrived at $225.50 by updating the forecast around the new post-earnings information rather than relying on the original pre-earnings estimate. The most important input is that NVDA is now trading around $226 pre-market, which tells us the market is assigning a much more bullish value to the earnings report and forward guidance than it was before the release.

I then adjust for the fact that Nvidia’s results and guidance were stronger than consensus, which supports a higher valuation range, while also accounting for the tendency of large pre-market gaps to experience some intraday profit-taking. The next meaningful resistance area appears to be around $229–230, so I do not assume the entire pre-market momentum will continue uninterrupted.

Putting those factors together, my highest-probability scenario is that NVDA opens strong, holds most of the earnings gap, but gives back a small portion of the move during regular trading. That creates a likely closing zone of roughly $224–229, with the centre of that distribution around $225–226. Therefore, my updated single-number estimate is $225.50.

@Captain's Watch