The renewed US-Iran confrontation has materially increased geopolitical and energy-supply risk, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. Oil’s sharp rally reflects a higher disruption premium, while equities declined as investors reassessed inflation, interest-rate and growth risks. Near term, markets may remain volatile, with sustained oil strength potentially weighing on consumer spending and corporate margins. However, the eventual market direction will depend heavily on whether military escalation broadens or remains contained.