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2 days ago, 12:20 PM
U.S. stocks were slightly lower as oil and 10yr treasury yields ticked higher. Gold, silver and bitcoin rose, and chip names were mixed. $Broadcom(AVGO.US) slipped after slight miss in revenue guidance. U.S.-Iran strikes continued with no resolution in sight. Traders priced a 62% chance of a Sept. Fed hike, although I don’t see it given slowing job growth and temporary nature of oil supply shock. S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have continued to climb on AI and energy sector gains. S&P 500 forward earnings yield remains below 10-year treasury yield (no equity risk premium; normal +50-100 bp premium). Tesla’s Austin Cybercab event is today; I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) shares amid negative TSLA long term earnings revisions, unsupervised autonomy being commoditized, and an extended valuation.
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