I believe it’s better for equities if the Fed raises short-term rates by 25bp tomorrow (first Fed rate increase since July 2023) in response to elevated oil prices (brent crude +50% since end of Feb) than to get forced into a series of rate hikes. While brent prices are likely to fall from here if Trump can negotiate an end to the war — which would help Republicans in the midterms — a dose of Fed medicine tomorrow could prevent a situation where a Kevin Warsh-led Fed is forced onto a path of several interest rate hikes, which would likely push 10-year Treasury yields higher, hurting growth equities. A short term rate hike tomorrow if positioned as potentially one-and-done could push 10-year treasury yields lower.