š„ HOT TAKE: YOU DONāT NEED NEW QE TO GET A LIQUIDITY TAILWIND.
Donāt confuse āno new stimulus waveā with āno support.āThe Liquidity Trinity + Treasury Buybacks gives us FOUR channels to watch heading into the late-October/November window:šµ TREASURY CASH IS MOVING.The Treasuryās cash account fell approximately $96.8 BILLION between September 23 and October 7, reaching $880.3B on a weekly-average basis. A falling TGA can return liquidity to the banking system, all else equal. That matters.š¦ THE FED BALANCE SHEET IS HOLDING STEADY.Approximately $6.748 TRILLION as of October 7, essentially unchanged over two weeks. My read: a stable backdropānot an accelerating money printer.š $14.6 BILLION OF BILL RE-INVESTMENTS ARE PLANNED.The October 15āNovember 13 program replaces agency principal payments with Treasury bills. Maintaining the portfolioānot adding $14.6B of fresh net expansion. No additional reserve-management purchases are planned for this period. *Federal Reserve Bank of New York*šÆ TREASURY BUYBACKS TARGET THE BOND MARKET.Buying older, less-liquid bonds can help dealers move inventory and improve market functioning.Support for trading conditionsānot a guaranteed ceiling on yields. Scheduled capacity is not the same as completed purchases. U.S. Department of the TreasuryMY READ: A CUSHION, NOT A BLANK CHECK.These channels overlap. Do NOT add them together and call it four separate liquidity injections.For $SPY $QQQ $SMH, I want easing yield pressure, improving breadth, and buyers reclaimingāand HOLDINGākey levels before upgrading the bullish setup.Respect the support. Demand confirmation. Donāt abandon risk management.LIQUIDITY SETS THE STAGE. EARNINGS TEST THE STORY. PRICE CONFIRMS THE TRADE. šÆ@Norseman1 @Banana3Stocks @ISABELNET_SA @Micro2Macr0 @StockPatternPro @acethebulllly @blondebroker1 @RyanDetrick @MikeZaccardiThe copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.
