SPCX beats, NFLX misses, Musk merger buzz

U.S. futures are higher, with Nasdaq leading, as AI infrastructure confirmation from overnight results offsets mixed prints elsewhere. Dow closed +1.02% yesterday on healthcare/value rotation while Nasdaq was flat; small caps led. Oil remains elevated near multi-month highs on Middle East shipping risks. Heavy earnings day ahead—$Meta Platforms(META.US) and $AT & T(T.US)esla(TSLA.US) after the close are the key events for AI spend and risk appetite. Premarket: $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) and $SpaceX(SPCX.US) leading gains on volume.

★ MOST ACTIONABLE · ▲ POSITIVE · $SpaceX(SPCX.US) $AT & T(T.US)esla(TSLA.US)

SPCX reported Q3 revenue of $14.6B (+161% Y/Y), well ahead of ~$12.7B consensus, with net income of $4.4B (vs prior-year loss) and adjusted EBITDA of $8.8B (+306%). Super Intelligence segment drove the beat at $7.6B (+830% Y/Y) on cloud services agreements, Cursor acquisition, and Grok adoption; Connectivity (Starlink) rose 69% to $5.2B with 13.6M subscribers. Capex was roughly in line; nameplate compute reached 1.7 GW. Shares +8–10% premarket.

On the call, Elon Musk said special committees at both SPCX and TSLA have been formed to evaluate a potential merger (he is not on either), calling the idea a good one with synergies in AI software, chips, robotics, and connectivity, while noting no agreement or guarantee and that it is not a certainty. TSLA +1–2% premarket ahead of its own print. Other space names (Rocket Lab, Intuitive Machines, ASTS) firmed. This is the clearest near-term reinforcement of the AI infrastructure demand narrative heading into mega-cap earnings; the merger chatter is speculative but keeps the FinTwit “Musk complex / superintelligence” theme active. Full results call Nov. 3 for some peers; watch TSLA guidance and any color on compute/power constraints.

★ MOST ACTIONABLE · ▲ POSITIVE · $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US)

SMCI pre-announced preliminary Q1 FY27 (ended Sep 30) revenue of $18.5–19.5B vs prior guide $14.5–15.5B and Street ~$15B, primarily on AI platform demand. Gross margin raised to 12.0–12.5% from 10.4–10.8%. Shares +11–13% premarket; $Dell Tech(DELL.US) and $Hewlett Packard Enterprise(HPE.US) also higher. Full results Nov. 3. This is a loud counter-signal after recent AI-debt/credit concerns—demand held through quarter-end. Street models still appear light relative to the new run-rate; margins improved on mix. DOJ overhang remains but is not the immediate driver. Positive read-through for AI server/infrastructure complex into the rest of earnings season.

▼ NEGATIVE · $Netflix(NFLX.US)

Q3 revenue $12.87B (in line, +12% Y/Y—slowest in ~3 years), EPS $0.87 beat. Operating margin 34.6%. But Q4 revenue guide ~$13.44B missed Street ~$13.5B; Q4 EPS $0.67 vs ~$0.73. Full-year ad revenue forecast cut to ~$2.7B from ~$3B on slower product rollout. FY26 revenue narrowed to $51.1B (low end of prior range, slightly below consensus). Shares –6%+ premarket, near multi-year lows. Co-CEO Sarandos acknowledged need to “do better” on content after recent layoffs and exec changes. Engagement/churn and growth durability remain the open questions; ad miss and soft guide overpowered the beat. Software/consumer growth names sensitive to deceleration signals may see spillover.

Today’s Earnings Card

Options pricing elevated moves. After close: $Meta Platforms(META.US) (~±10–11%), $AT & T(T.US)esla(TSLA.US) (~±6–7%), $IBM(IBM.US) (~±7%), $Lam Research(LRCX.US) (~±7–8%), $AT & T(T.US)exas Instruments(TXN.US) (~±7–8%). Before open: $AT & T(T.US), $Abbott Laboratories(ABT.US), $AT & T(T.US)MO, $Danaher(DHR.US), $Nextera Energy(NEE.US), $Phillip Morris(PM.US), $Moodys(MCO.US) and others. $Meta Platforms(META.US) AI capex/guidance and $AT & T(T.US)esla(TSLA.US) margins/guidance are the highest-impact for the AI and growth complex. $Lam Research(LRCX.US) and $AT & T(T.US)exas Instruments(TXN.US) provide semiconductor demand color (positive setup from recent peer strength). Busy week continues; implied moves have historically been exceeded in both directions on some of these names.

Analyst Actions

Upgrades/positive:

$Northrop Grumman(NOC.US) to Outperform at Baird (PT $675 from $550); $Digitalocean(DOCN.US) to Overweight at Piper (PT lowered); $Intuitive Surgical(ISRG.US) to Buy at Erste; $Clean Harbors(CLH.US) to Buy at UBS; $Zoom Communications(ZM.US) to Outperform at Oppenheimer. BofA raised PTs on storage ($Western Digital(WDC.US) to $800, $Seagate Tech(STX.US) to $1,200).

Downgrades:

$Netflix(NFLX.US) to Hold at Needham; $Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG.US) to Hold at TD Cowen (PT $32 from $44); $Accenture(ACN.US) to Neutral at Baird. Multiple $Braze(BRZE.US) downgrades to Neutral/Hold after Salesforce acquisition agreement at $47.50/share (stock +50%+ yesterday on the deal).

Initiations include $Applied Digital(APLD.US) Buy at Roth, $Robinhood(HOOD.US) Buy at Rosenblatt.

Macro / Energy

Brent near $109–110 and WTI near $98–100 after touching five-month highs. Ongoing Hormuz/Gulf of Oman tanker attacks (Iran claims a mine incident), Houthi strikes on Saudi sites, and limited diplomatic progress keep the risk premium elevated. No major U.S. data today (EIA inventories and a Treasury auction later). Fed in blackout ahead of Oct 27–28 meeting. Elevated oil is a headwind for risk appetite if it reaccelerates; healthcare/defensive rotation from yesterday remains a background theme.

Other Notes

$Intuitive Surgical(ISRG.US) down ~8% despite a beat, on a litigation charge and narrower procedure growth outlook. $Braze(BRZE.US) is a completed M&A event rather than an ongoing catalyst. Speculative small-cap premarket volume (e.g., $Robin Energy - WI(RBNE.US)) is noise unless a clear catalyst emerges. FinTwit focus is on the AI confirmation from $SpaceX(SPCX.US)/ $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) versus the soft $Netflix(NFLX.US) guide and oil risk; constructive $Meta Platforms(META.US)/ $AT & T(T.US)esla(TSLA.US) prints would likely extend the AI bid, while misses would reinforce rotation.

NFA / DYOR. Not financial advice. Markets can reverse quickly; size positions for your risk tolerance and do your own research.