Conference Minutes
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Dolphin Research

IBKR (Trans): Dividend to $0.60; Bets on RIAs and AI trading

Pre-tax margin reached 78%, the eighth straight quarter above 70%. Annualized dividend was raised to $0.60 from $0.35. However, trading activity eased vs. Q2, with stock share volume down 24% YoY, while the company increased deployment into RIA tax-aware L/S strategies (c.$300 mn AUM at quarter-end) and proprietary AI trading.

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Dolphin Research

TSM (Trans): Won't leave money on the table; aims to win every possible biz.

Q4 revenue guidance is $53.3bn at the midpoint (+14% QoQ), with full-year USD revenue growth around 44%. However, a steep 2nm ramp and dilution from overseas fabs push the Q4 GPM midpoint down to 66%, and the overseas dilution is expected to widen by 300–400bps over the next few years. The company is adding a second 3nm fab in Tainan and evaluating capacity expansion in Texas, noting that AI demand still far exceeds supply.

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Dolphin Research

AMAT Trans: 2030 target to add 2ppt WFE share; GPM to 54%.

Below is Dolphin Research's Trans from AMAT's 2026 SEMICON West investor tech session.

Key takeaways: AI is concentrating incremental WFE on the company's leading positions in advanced logic, DRAM, and advanced packaging.

By 2030, management targets GPM of 54%, OPM of 40%, and 200bps+ share gains.

However, it gave no WFE outlook and flagged that cleanroom and supply-chain constraints could make growth uneven, while betting on EPIC and AIx services to drive yield innovation...

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Dolphin Research

MRVL (Trans): Data center capex to exceed RMB 3 tn; the company has secured 5-year capacity.

Below is the meeting Trans of MRVL 2026 Investor Day (covering FY27), compiled by Dolphin Research. For in-depth analysis, cf. 'Marvell: Long-term guidance surges — confidence or just painting a rosy picture?'

I. Core highlights. 1) Shareholder returns & capital allocation: From FY21–FY26, the co. invested approx. $8 bn in organic R&D and about $11 bn in M&A.

It also returned about $4 bn to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. Looking ahead, with structurally stronger cash flow...

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Dolphin Research

MU (Analyst huddle): SCA covers 35% of revenue; at least two nodes ahead of Chinese peers

Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of MU's FY26 Q4 post-earnings analyst call. For our earnings read-through, please see 'Micron: Without the melt-up, can long-term agreements really support a memory revival?'.

I. $Micron Tech(MU.US) Key Earnings Recap: 1) FQ1 modeling assumptions: guidance implies DRAM and NAND bit shipments up low single-digit QoQ, with unit costs showing double-digit change. 2) FY27 R&D raised: excluding incentive comp., ...

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Dolphin Research

MU Trans: Supply-demand tight through 2028; bigger capital returns from Dec.

FQ4 revenue was $54.2bn and GPM reached 87%, both beating the top end of guidance.

FQ1 revenue guidance set a new high at $61.5bn.

About $1bn of incentive comp and other costs will pull FQ1 GPM back to ~86.25%, which management views as the FY27 full-year trough.

The company also expects supply-demand to be tighter in 2027–2028 vs. 2026 and has raised FY27 capex.

It will step up capital returns starting Dec 9.

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Dolphin Research

COST (Trans): comps steady at 6.7%, membership growth slowed

FY26 Q4 net sales were $93.87bn (+11.2% YoY). Ex fuel and FX, comps held at 6.7%, while growth in total paid memberships slowed to 3.8%, and the YoY lift from the U.S./Canada fee hike rolled off by quarter-end.

For FY27, capex was raised to approx. $7.5bn, with a target to open net 30 warehouses per year. Most of the tariff refunds received will be reinvested into membership fees.

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Dolphin Research

TCOM (Trans): Antitrust in Force, Intl Expansion Takes the Lead

Intl OTA platform revenue grew over 50% YoY, and inbound travel posted high double-digit growth.

However, a one-off antitrust penalty was booked, with RMB 5.18 bn expensed and RMB 122 mn offset against revenue. Adj. EBITDA fell from RMB 4.9 bn to RMB 4.6 bn.

Domestic biz will remain volatile during the rectification period. The company is betting incremental growth on globalization and AI.

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