Coinbase

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Dolphin Research

COIN (Trans): Prediction Mkts Fill the Gap as Spot Softens

The prediction market went live in Feb, and by Q3 its annualized revenue had surpassed $200 mn. Together with derivatives, it accounted for about 25% of trading revenue, cushioning a 10% QoQ decline in spot volumes, but overall revenue was flat QoQ. The company is prioritizing AI Agent accounts, tokenized stocks, and post-quantum custody as new growth and defensive focuses.

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Dolphin Research

COIN: Crypto Slide Retests Lows; Will Policy Tailwinds Return?

$Coinbase(COIN.US) reported Q2 results, further deepening the Q1 slump.

Specifically:

1) Trading remained weak: trading revenue fell 19% YoY. The company did not disclose headline trading volume this quarter, but Coinbase spot volumes dropped sharply YoY and QoQ.

The industry showed the same trend. Per CoinGecko, Q2 industrywide spot crypto volumes fell 27% QoQ, and total market cap declined 11% QoQ. In the filing...

THIS NOTE IS LEGAL TENDER FOR ALL DEBTS.PUBLIC AND PRIVATE L92636134V WASHINGTON
Coinbase (COIN) 2Q26FY Financial Performance (in S millions) 1Q25 2025 3Q25 4Q25
Spend (Visa) Save Send & Invest Pay (BTC) Distribute Researc Pay(USDC) Receive B
Coinbase Transaction Subscription Other services Custody Crypto sales Trading X +16
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Dolphin Research

COIN Trans: Shift from Bitcoin to Subscriptions

Below is Dolphin Research's compiled transcript for $Coinbase(COIN.US) FY26Q2 earnings call. Section I: Core takeaways recap.

1. The Circle partnership auto-renewed on existing terms: the company met the renewal conditions, and the agreement will roll on the original terms, removing prior market uncertainty around renewal. The company will continue working with Circle to expand USDC's scale and build out its ecosystem.

2. Revenue mix is meaningfully more diversified: BTC-related trading revenue has fallen from historically more than half of total, to below half of total. ...

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Dolphin Research

COIN (Trans): Confident a bill will be enacted by late summer

Below is Dolphin Research's compiled Trans of $Coinbase(COIN.US) FY26 Q1 earnings call.

For the earnings analysis, please see 'Coinbase: After a long drought, awaiting policy rain'.

1) Earnings highlights recap. Shareholder returns: repurchased approx. 6 mn shares in Q1, spending $1.1 bn. Cumulative buybacks have offset about 90% of dilution from employee equity grants since Q4 2024.

The 2026 convertible notes ($1.3 bn) mature on Jun 1. If the conversion price is not triggered, the company plans to repay in cash...

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Coinbase (COIN) I)1 1Q26FY Financial Performance (in $ millions) 1Q24A 2Q24A 3Q2
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Dolphin Research

COIN: Long Dry Spell, Awaiting Timely Policy Tailwinds

$Coinbase(COIN.US) reported Q1 results, and most of the pullback was largely as anticipated. The quarter played out against a backdrop of the CLARIFY bill stalling and Middle East tensions lifting oil and even reviving rate-hike expectations, both negatives for risk assets.

However, crypto-exposed stocks moved ahead of fundamentals; as geopolitical tensions eased in Apr, digital assets staged a rebound. Versus last quarter’s earnings day, BTC climbed from $67k to $80k, and Coinbase’s valuation rose from $38.5bn to $50bn...

z 目km!3 包 5 1 S 1. C co < 1111 000 宣
Coinbase (COIN) 1Q26FY Financial Performance (in $ millions) 1Q24A 2Q24A 3Q24 4Q
Spend (Visa) Save Send & Invest Pay (BTC) Distribute Researc Pay(USDC) Receive B
Coinbase Transaction Subscription Other services Custody Crypto sales Trading X +16
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Dolphin Research

Coinbase (Trans): Last Year Was an 'Investment Year,' This Year Will See Prudent Cost Control</p>

Below is Dolphin Research's transcript of Coinbase's FY25 Q4 earnings call. For the earnings analysis, please refer to 'Weak Market + Poor Performance: When Will Coinbase Hit Bottom?'

1. Key Earnings Highlights:

a. Capital Management:

i. Buybacks: $1.7bn spent on share repurchases in 2025 (fully offsetting SBC dilution).

ii. New Authorization: BOD approved additional $2bn buyback program.

iii. Asset Accumulation: Committed to using cash flow for opportunistic Bitcoin purchases...

Z 目km!3 包 C E S 1. v co < 1111 coo 首
Coinbase (COIN) 4Q25FY Financial Performance (in $ millions) 1Q24A 2Q24A 3Q24 4Q
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Dolphin Research

Bad Tape + Weak Print: When Does COIN Bottom?---

In the early hours in Beijing on Feb 13, after the US close, $Coinbase(COIN.US) reported its Q4 2025 results. The quarter was weak, missing Street expectations.

However, the stock has largely decoupled from the print. Since Feb, COIN has sold off alongside a deeper crypto pullback, while most Street estimates were set in Jan.

Stepping back from near-term estimates, the company is in an investment-led expansion phase, entering stock trading, equity perpetuals, and prediction markets via M&A and in-house builds. As a result, opex has risen meaningfully...

THIS NOTE IS LEGAL TENDER FOR ALL DEBTS.PUBLIC AND PRIVATE L92636134V WASHINGTON
Coinbase(COIN) 4Q25FY Financial Performance (in $ millions) 1Q24A 2Q24A 3Q24 4Q2
Difficulty Regression Model (Estimated Avg Production Price) Default Zoom Info O
Spend (Visa) Save Send & Invest Pay (BTC) Distribute Researc Pay(USDC) Receive B+20
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Dolphin Research

Coinbase (Minutes): Driving comprehensive asset on-chain around 'Trading and Payment'

The following are the minutes of the earnings call for $Coinbase(COIN.US) organized by Dolphin Research. For a review of the third-quarter financial report, please refer to "Coinbase: Short-term Recovery Within Expectations, Long-term Ecosystem Still Needs Accelerated Expansion." 1. Review of Core Financial Information: Overall Performance: The company achieved total revenue of approximately $1.9 billion in the third quarter of fiscal year 2025. Adjusted EBITDA was $801 million. The company recorded a fair value revaluation gain of $424 million on its crypto investment portfolio this quarter, with $381 million included in other expense items...

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Coinbase ( (COIN) 3Q25FY Financial Performance (in $ millions) 1Q24A 2Q24A 3Q24
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Dolphin Research

Coinbase: Short-term recovery expected, long-term ecosystem still needs accelerated expansion

In the early morning of October 30th Beijing time, after the US stock market closed, $Coinbase(COIN.US) released its Q3 2025 financial report. Overall, the slight outperformance in trading revenue led to a noticeable recovery in overall revenue and profit. The cryptocurrency market saw some recovery quarter-on-quarter in Q3, and Coinbase completed the consolidation of Deribit and launched perpetual futures for cryptocurrencies, which increased the market share of derivatives trading in Q3. Additionally, during the earnings call, management's outlook on launching banking payment services in Germany further stimulated Coinbase's trading sentiment...

THIS NOTE IS LEGAL TENDER FOR ALL DEBTS.PUBLIC AND PRIVATE L92636134V WASHINGTON
Coinbase ( (COIN) 3Q25FY Financial Performance (in $ millions) 1Q24A 2Q24A 3Q24
Spend (Visa) Save Send & Invest Pay (BTC) Distribute Researc Pay(USDC) Receive B
Coinbase Transaction Subscription Other services Custody Crypto sales Trading X +18