Circle

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Dolphin Research

Circle: Inflated results; key channels bite back; only path is to build the ecosystem.

$Circle(CRCL.US) released Q3 results pre-market on Nov 4 (ET).

Overall, the beat was largely driven by revenue from Arc token sales.

Ex-Arc, results were middling, validating investor concerns ahead of the print.

Specifically: 1) Reserve interest income declined as expected.

Q3 reserve interest income was $660 mn, in line. Despite USDC market cap rising 8% YoY, lower rates led interest income to fall 8% YoY.

QoQ, Avg. USDC in circulation in Q3 was $73.3 bn, down 4% vs. Q2...

)C CIRCLE TTT TT $ 1
Circle Reserve income 800 DolphinResearch Reserve income inResearch 一 -yoy% 700
USDC minted and redeemed $mn USDC minted USDC redeemed 150000 16,119 20,000 1000
USDC marketcap and share of stablecoins in circlulation $mn Stablecoins in circu+7
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Dolphin Research

Circle (Trans): Guidance excludes Arc token presale; to be revised next qtr.

Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of $Circle(CRCL.US) Q1 2026 earnings call. For our take, see 'Circle: Ugly tape, but the No.1 stablecoin play keeps expanding'.

1) Guidance: Full-year 2026 guidance remains unchanged, excluding the future financial impact of the Arc token pre-sale, the Arc incentive program and related revenue. Management plans to provide an updated outlook on the next earnings call.

2) Revenue and profit. Total revenue and reserve income were $694 mn...

BUSD usdt S 5) D DAI U JS 中 三 UST usdc 母 usdt basn 三 H BUSD
Circle (CRCL) 1Q26FY Financial Performance (in $ millions) 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3
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Dolphin Research

Circle: Ugly tape, the first stablecoin stock still expands

On May 11 pre-market ET, the first listed stablecoin play $Circle(CRCL.US) reported Q1 2026 results. The release frames how investors assess drivers beyond rates and USDC scale.

Because USDC circulating supply and reserve asset yields are public, roughly 95% of interest income is largely knowable. As a result, Circle's share price has mostly tracked changes in USDC market cap, effectively a proxy for rate-cut expectations and shifts in crypto policy.

Where the print can surprise is in non-interest revenue, internal operating efficiency, and the guidance. These elements signal the company's medium- to long-term strategic priorities.

)C CIRCLE TTT TT $ 1
Circle (CRCL) 1Q26FY Financial Performance (in $ millions) 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3
USDC minted and redeemed $mn USDCn m 15.485 USDC redeemed 一 200000 150000 Dolphi
Market Cap: USDT vs USDC 200 olphinResearch inR USDT searcr USDC USDT/USDC earch+7
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Dolphin Research

Circle (Trans): New Bill Nears Passage; Arc to Drive Future Growth ---

Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of the $Circle(CRCL.US) FY25 Q4 earnings call.

For the earnings analysis, please see 'Circle: Results rebut bears — can the top stablecoin stock stay 'stable'?'.

I. Key financials recap.

II. Earnings call details.

2.1 Management key messages.

1) Macro outlook — convergence of tech change. We are at the very early stage of a profound transformation in the global economic system, driven by the convergence of blockchain/stablecoins, tech acceleration, and AI. The future will feature tens of billions, or even hundreds of billions, of AI agents...

Circle (CRCL) 4Q25FY Financial Performance (in $ millions) 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3
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Dolphin Research

CRCL: Results Push Back at Bears — Can the First Stablecoin Stock Stay Steady? ---

On Feb 25 pre-market (ET), stablecoin USDC issuer $Circle(CRCL.US) released Q4 2025 results. The biggest driver, interest income on reserve assets, is fairly transparent given public USDC market cap and Fed rate levels.

While Circle's share-price moves are not tied to earnings, the filing still offers useful signals. By tracking other revenue and take-rate mix, Opex, and guidance, we can gauge shifts in its ecosystem build-out and operating efficiency. That, in turn, helps assess management's strategic vision and execution...

)C CIRCLE TTT TT S S
Circle (CRCL) 4Q25FY Financial Performance (in $ millions) 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3
USDC minted and redeemed $mn USD DC 200000 m18445 USDC redeemed cn 25,000 16,119
200000 150000 100000 cea 50000 USDC-Marketcap($mn) 0 Dolpm ea 2025/1/1 Market Ca+8
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Dolphin Research

Circle (Minutes): The Ecological Network is More Important than Commercialization

The following are the Minutes of the $Circle (CRCL.US) FY25 Q3 earnings call. For a quick interpretation, you can simply review the Quick Interpretation of the financial report. 1. Financial Core Data Review: (1) Performance Overview: USDC circulation reached $73.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 108%; on-chain transaction volume was $9.6 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 580%. (2) Profitability: Total revenue and reserve earnings were $740 million, a year-on-year increase of 66%; Adjusted EBITDA was $166 million, a year-on-year increase of 78%. The profit margin reached 57%...

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Dolphin Research

CIRCLE (Minutes): Continue to expand usage scenarios and distribution channels

The following are the minutes of the FY25 Q2 earnings call for $Circle(CRCL.US). For an interpretation of the financial report, please refer to "Circle: Making or Losing Money is a Minor Issue, the Ecosystem is the Main Artery!" 1. Review of Core Financial Information (1) Guidance and Future Outlook: ◦ The company does not provide short-term quarterly guidance but offers a full-year key metrics outlook. It is expected that the total revenue for 2025 will exceed previous expectations, with the core model for USDC's compound annual growth rate at 40%. ◦ Other income for 2025 is expected to be between $75 million and $85 million...

BUSD Lasn S 5) D DAI U JS 中 三 UST oasn 母 Lasn basn 七 W BUSD
Circle (CRCL) 2Q25FY Financial Performance (in $ millions) 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1
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Dolphin Research

Circle: Making or losing a little money is trivial; the ecosystem is the main artery!

Before the market opened on August 12th, Eastern Time, the first stablecoin stock $Circle(CRCL.US) released its first financial report since going public. For this financial report, short-term performance is not the focus. The primary goal at present is to increase distribution channels and expand application scenarios to jointly grow the USDC ecosystem. This means that necessary cost concessions and expense investments are indispensable, and thus the profit figures will inevitably continue to look unattractive. Therefore, the core of this financial report lies in the company's short-term and long-term strategic changes and future outlook. Coincidentally, the management provided an annual guidance in the second-quarter report...

)C CIRCLE TTT TT S S
Circle (CRCL) 2Q25FY Financial Performance (in $ millions) 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1
Smn iResearch LONGBRIDGE DolphinRes Research LONGBRID inResearc 2,138 Dolpl 167
Marketcap of USDC in circulation $mn 70,000 65,000 豚投研 DolphinResearch 海豚投研 Qolp+8
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Dolphin Research

Coinbase vs. Circle: The Symbiotic Rivalry in the Stablecoin Arena – Who Will Prevail?

$Coinbase(COIN.US) $Circle(CRCL.US) In the first two articles of the cryptocurrency series ('Coinbase Business Logic', 'Stablecoin Discussion'), Dolphin Research introduced Coinbase's business model, the market size of stablecoins, and the scarcity issue of USDC. To prevent information overload, let's highlight the key points: 1. Coinbase currently primarily generates revenue from cryptocurrency transaction fees, mainly from retail investors. However, with increasing competition (regulation has both advantages and disadvantages, clearing out low-compliance crypto trading platforms...

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