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+8
SNDK: DC Boom, But LT Contracts Cap Price Hikes
Beats no longer surprise: LT contracts floor the downside and cap the upside
+8Sandisk
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SanDisk (Trans): NBM pipeline oversupplied, announces 8-for-1 split
Data center revenue rose 61% QoQ to $4.8bn. Next-quarter revenue is guided to $12.2–12.6bn, but management noted the Mar quarter is typically the weakest on a QoQ basis and advised modeling conservatively. NBM has secured roughly half of FY27 and about two-thirds of FY28 wafer allocation, and the pipeline exceeds the company's supply through the end of the decade.
D![a 2 1 三 c )SanDisk PROFESSIONAL]()
![Figure 23： DRAM spot price trend Figure 24： NAND s D spot price trend W%2们 15.0]()
![Sandisk ASP Unit： ($/GB) SNDK Flash $/EB assumptions ($/GB) V Y/Y 0 0.20 hinRese]()
![Sandisk ASP Unit：($GB) SNDK Flash $/GB assumptions Y/Y 0.35 DolphinResearch Dolp]()
+36
AI can't rewrite the DNA — how long can SanDisk's rally last?
In two earlier pieces, 'From Leaves to Flowers: How AI Inference Can Revive NAND?' and 'NAND’s Prolific Nature: Why Can SanDisk Defend 80% GPM?', Dolphin Research argued that AI will not only lift NAND demand but could also break its long-standing 'silicon cycle' fate.
Under an inference-led paradigm, NAND is shifting from a peripheral data warehouse to an essential element on the compute path.With the move from training to inference and longer context windows, today’s SSDs have effectively become a 'token battery' that stores compute...D![a 2 1 三 c )SanDisk PROFESSIONAL]()
![FLASHMARKET TO REACH1.2ZB IN2026 IN 1 2026 DATA CENTER ( OVERTAKES SE EDGE E A A]()
![Nand Demand by use USB Flash cards Enterprise SSD Client SSD/Others Smartphones]()
![Industry NAND(256GB) Demand Unit： mn units Total Total 40，000 50% 36.366 35，000]()
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From Sidekick to Star: How AI inference can rewrite NAND's destiny?
Storing KV cache is storing compute. SSDs are becoming 'token batteries'.
D![High Bandwidth Memory HBM]()
![Evolution Route 1： more Layers 720um- 口 一 口口 一 一 口 口 C 口口 口 一 一 口口口 口口口 C 高品 C 一]()
![More Complicated Cooling for more Layers Next-Generation HBM Roadmap ： Thermal M]()
![Evolution Route 2： uncoventional layout Raised interposer for taller stack heigh]()
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From HBM stack caps to a NAND ramp, NVDA vs. memory makers: who has the leverage?
In the prior piece, Dolphin Research examined the underlying tech to explain why AI's demand for memory capacity 'suddenly' surged and why HBM became the preferred memory for high-performance GPUs. It also outlined the core concepts and rationale of HBM.
As AI advances, how will memory evolve to deliver larger capacity and higher bandwidth? Two seemingly conflicting signals have surfaced recently in the industry.On one side, the HBM roadmap keeps ramping, with stack counts moving from 12 to 16 and 20. On the other hand, per SemiAnalysis...D![a 2 1 三 c )SanDisk PROFESSIONAL]()
![Sandisk revenue Unit： $mn Flash Revenue Y/Y 25，000 arC 200% 20228 20，000 Dolphin]()
![Sandisk Shipment Volume Unit：EB SNDK estimated(EB) 3) Y/Y 140 120 DolphinResearc]()
![Sandisk ASP Unit： ($/GB) SNDK Flash $/EB assumptions ($/GB) V Y/Y 0 0.20 hinRese]()
+34
If NAND is 'born prolific,' how does SanDisk defend an 80% GPM?
NAND is in a tight balance, with the call squarely on demand. Any let-up in supply discipline could cause the market to unravel.
D![SanDisk a ISK]()
![AI compute boom HDD supply gap Enterprise eSSD surge Shifts to eSSD Direct hit·e]()
![Sandisk stake entering 2026 7，513，019 shares Debt-for-equity exchange Feb17-19，2]()
![SanDisk Shareholding structure(2025/12/31) FRMLLC Vanguard Group BlackRock Weste]()
+11
AI inferencing boom: Can beleaguered WDC rise from the ashes?
This AI wave has turned NAND flash from a cyclical, oversupplied commodity into a scarce strategic resource. SanDisk, spun off and freed from the drag of the legacy HDD business, is making a pure-play bet on NAND and data-center SSDs, catching the updraft.
AI servers, when running inference, processing complex tokens and prompts, handling multimodal inputs (video, images), and generating synthetic data, need to read and write historical data at high frequency and in tight loops. Legacy cloud storage architectures can no longer keep up with these workloads...D![图片 1，共 2 张]()
![Core capex (US$100mn) 2024 2025 2026E Notes TSMC 298 409 620 2026 full-year cape]()
An Even Bigger Cash Cow Than DRAM — Is SanDisk Really That Lucrative?
At the 2026 Investor Day (see Trans here), WDC laid out eye-popping metrics. Management provided the following outlook:
1) FY27 (through Jun-27): bit growth in the mid-teens, with prices edging up modestly each quarter. This implies the hyper-inflationary phase in NAND pricing has ended. The next four quarters should see steady, incremental price increases.2) FY28–FY30: a) Revenue to grow in the mid-to-high teens, driven mainly by bits (volume). Dolphin Research adds that the company is assuming bit demand CAGR of ~18%, with little to no price contribution...D![图片 1，共 1 张]()
SanDisk (Trans): 90 bn contract, 80% GPM, Adj. FCF margin 50% — all to shareholders!
Below are Dolphin Research's Trans notes from $Sandisk(SNDK.US) FY26 Investor Day. Key takeaways: FY26 revenue of $20bn (+175% YoY) and a new biz model locking in $93.9bn in TCV, with floor-price GPM at ~80%.
Capex intensity to stay in mid-to-low single digits; Adj. OPM at 75%; Adj. FCF margin at 50%. All FCF will be returned to shareholders...