Strategy Report

By end-Q1 2026, risk appetite has shifted sharply from the AI asset frenzy of 2025, driven by early-year moves by Trump, rapid progress in AI, and changes in USD liquidity. But how much of this is a short-term repricing of war risk versus a deliberate realignment with long-term trends?

There is always plenty of drama around Chinese New Year. After Trump ramped up tariffs throughout 2025, the policy was effectively gutted, leaving no legal footing.

Barely into 2026, Trump has already kicked off the show. At home, he is pushing a 10% cap on credit card APRs and leaning on the housing GSEs to buy hundreds of billions of MBS; abroad, he has floated a decapitation strike against Venezuela and a strong‑arm bid for Greenland... What policy logic underpins these erratic moves?

Starting in 2020, the U.S. has run through a full fiscal, monetary, and economic cycle. Compared with the prior five-year 'miracle,' as we enter the new cycle in 2026, will U.S. equities deliver another bumper year?

With the US Gov. reopened, we can finally take stock of the year-end macro picture. Yet the latest prints look conflicting — growth remains solid, inflation is falling fast, while jobs are deteriorating so quickly it almost looks like a recession.

A hand-controlled life necessity price, plus a man-made interest price, will ochestrate US' economy boom in 2036.

Originally, the market was continuously declining due to liquidity withdrawal caused by the U.S. government shutdown and concerns over supply chain financing surrounding OpenAI. However, now that the U.S. government has reopened and NVIDIA's strong performance has been released, the market still isn't buying it. What exactly is wrong with the U.S. stock market? With only five weeks left in 2025, has it completely turned into garbage time? Is there still hope for AI in 2026? 1. Looking towards 2026, what exactly are Trump's demands? There is one last chance for a rate cut this year—the interest rate meeting on December 10th. From a macro perspective, the current market's short-term nerves seem to be dominated by the prospect of a rate cut...

Continued tight liquidity has started to affect beneficiaries under ample liquidity, such as Bitcoin, as well as tech growth stocks with weak fundamentals and excessive valuations. But what cause the liquidity shortage abruption? what may ease it? and how to position portfolios under this circumstance?

The U.S. federal government has been in a shutdown since October 1st, and it has now been over a month. During this period, although there has been almost no release of federal-level macroeconomic data, the 'G2' meeting between China and the U.S. in South Korea, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, and the AI infrastructure investment frenzy by American tech giants during the earnings season have resonated to create a small peak in the U.S. stock market. However, the core issue the market now faces is whether the realization of these benefits means that all the good news has been priced in, and whether the remaining time in 2025 will be 'junk' time. 1. Powell's 'hawkish' rate cut...

Originally, in the mid-September Madrid negotiations, the U.S.-China talks resolved the long-standing major conflict over TikTok. However, Trump's emotional essay on a 100% tariff seemed to have set back the bilateral relations overnight. But following Trump's press inquiries, Vance's statements, and press conferences from China's Ministry of Commerce, the TACO transaction became almost a consensus expectation. In this article, Dolphin Research will elaborate more on how this TACO transaction differs from previous ones and what other insights can be drawn besides TACO. 1. This TACO...