Meta/Facebook

D
Dolphin Research

META Follow-up Call Trans: Muse biz. value driven by high-value users; shopping is a high-frequency use case

Below is the Follow-up Call Trans for $Meta Platforms(META.US). For earnings commentary, refer to Dolphin Research's review (original review) and the earnings call recap (original review).

1) Key takeaways: Muse currently monetizes only via subscriptions, with transactions/ads and other channels to follow once the user base and Connect partners reach scale. In the U.S., 20%+ of Muse users are high-value, with annual ARPU above $1,000...

图片 1,共 1 张
D
Dolphin Research

META: Core biz breathes easier; Muse P&L still up in the air?

Hi everyone, this is Dolphin Research! Compared with last quarter’s awkward report card, this time $Meta Platforms(META.US) delivered results that let investors breathe easier. Core revenue, profit excluding one-offs, and Q4 guidance all beat estimates.

Near-term spend also didn’t ramp just because Muse offered an aggressive outlook.

However, on the 2027 guidance the market cares about, there weren’t many quantitative details. Expectations of potential equity financing will also keep longs sober amid optimism. Meta usually hosts a small callback meeting after the main earnings call...

MetaMuse
Meta (META.O) Financial Results USD in 100 mn 1Q25A 2Q25A 3Q25A 4Q25A 1Q26A 2Q26
USD, in 100 millions 33.1% 28.0% 700 600 27.3% 24.7% 26.2% 26.1% 23.2% 484 23.8%
Meta DAP (in 100 millions) phinResearch 78% nResearch esearch 9.0% 8.0% 5% 7.2% +9
D
Dolphin Research

META (Trans): Muse’s Long-Term Goal Is a Billion Users; Burn compute first, Monetize later

Muse has amassed over 10 mn registered users in the US and Canada roughly six weeks post launch. DAU penetration is ~25%, and Q4 revenue guidance is $73–76 bn.

However, Muse's compute costs remain elevated, and management targets >10x improvement in compute efficiency over the next year to reach profitability as revenue scales. The company is pivoting its focus to personal superintelligence and plans to monetize earlier than in prior cycles.

Meta
D
Dolphin Research

Muse goes viral: Is this the CPU's ChatGPT moment?

Meta launched Muse on Sep. 8. Each Muse runs on a dedicated virtual machine, the Muse Secure VM, which stores both the agent and user data. Long-running jobs keep executing even after the app is closed, then re-engage the user when something changes or an approval is needed.

The product went viral, briefly topping the US mobile download charts. For details on Muse and its implications for Meta, see Dolphin Research's take 'Muse goes viral: real inflection or hype peak?'...

AI Agent 一
ohinResearch OpenClaw Muse Nature 10 Open-source development framework Commercia
CPU GPU 三
Pure Inference Agent Orchestration User Goal User Request CPU: Loop until done P+14
D
Dolphin Research

Muse went viral, is META at a real inflection or just a head fake?

$Meta Platforms(META.US) Since Muse's US launch on Sept 8, it has been live for over two weeks. Dolphin Research shared an initial quick take, but as user reviews piled up, interest stayed high in recent days. As of today, Muse still ranks No.1 on the iOS US free download chart.

The buzz has spilled over into Muse's back-end supply chain and front-end commercial ecosystem, also stirring price action in related names. Today we will focus on a deeper look at the product. A review of the back-end supply chain shifts is coming soon.

17:10 95 L Muse from Meta W Your personal AI agent Open 28K RATINGS AGE RATING C
58 53 Claude Opus A\ 5.5(max with fallback) 53 Claude Fable A 5.1(max with fallb
Personal AI assistant comparison Platform Meta Muse Instinct OpenAI ChatGPT Grok
User's VA External Services Ingress - TLS + Noise User control Inference proxy n+2
D
Dolphin Research

META's Awkward Spot: Big Promises, Big Spend, No Payoff

Hi everyone, this is Dolphin Research. As the spark for the latest 'excess compute, supply chain peak' narrative, $Meta Platforms(META.US) posted results likely to disappoint all sides.

For Meta investors, Q2 revenue growth and the next-quarter guide both missed. Opex rose on litigation expenses, pressuring earnings and rapidly draining FCF and net cash.

For supply-chain investors, the full-year Capex guide only lifted the lower end of the range, well below aggressive expectations. Although Zuckerberg still says compute remains tight...

oMe etc
Meta 1(META.O) D) Financial Results USD in 100 mn 1Q25A 2Q25A 3Q25A 4Q25A 1Q26A
Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task 图 目 Artificial Analysis
USD, in 100 millions 33.1% 28.0% 700 600 27.3% 24.7% 202% 23.2% 484 23.8% 6 500 +11
D
Dolphin Research

Excess subleasing vs. aggressive buildouts: Is META's 'split personality' a blatant open play?

After $Meta Platforms(META.US) began weighing compute leasing, it stoked worries that the compute supply chain may be peaking. While the market debated whether this was a stopgap or a long-term strategy, Meta answered with three concrete moves: it is serious about the compute biz.

Expanding data centers is the most straightforward prep. Mass-producing in-house ASICs aims to cut cost and lift ROI.

The newly launched LLM, Muse Spark 1.1, is the true upside surprise in Dolphin Research's view. These three changes will likely push near-term Capex higher...

oMe etc
Agent JobBench MCP Atlas DeepSearchQA 60 100 100 54.7 88.1 87.8 48.4 82.2 82.2 8
OSWorld 2.0 BabyVision 80 50 40 70 30 60 ● Muse Spark 1.1 ● Muse Spark 1.1 20 ●
骨 ClaudeDevs A @ClaudeDevs We've reset 5-hour and weekly rate limits for all use+7
D
Dolphin Research

AI compute too costly: Is META upending the game?

Last week, Bloomberg reported that $Meta Platforms(META.US) is building a cloud infra biz and plans to lease compute externally.

The single headline slammed Neocloud—an AI hardware vendor heavily exposed to Meta—and kicked off an 'excess compute' narrative. Bearish sentiment spread, and even storage names with the strongest recent fundamentals got hit by panic selling.

Bottom line, Dolphin Research thinks: (1) judging by the day’s drawdown, the selloff likely overshot; yesterday’s move looked like a chain reaction in a crowded long tape once signs emerged that a short thesis might be getting validated. (2) At the same time...

Meta
Hyperscaler capex is on trend to outpace their cash inflows by the end of 2026 U
Capex from Hyperscalers and Neoclouds $bn 1,400 DolphinReseak AWS Google Meta IM
Meta Cash Flow Breakdown Core operations External investment Capex (SW & HW) Sha+8