Alibaba - Dolphin Research

Alibaba

Dolphin ResearchAug 24 at 04:22 AM

BABA's RMB 80bn raise: Will delivery subsidies be market-funded, and is AI the real future?

AI compute arms race vs. an e-com war of attrition? The choice isn’t hard; we’re just too slow. Moving too slow comes at a cost.

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Dolphin ResearchAug 20 at 09:07 PM

BABA's investment spree: building 'China's Google'?

Alibaba, often dubbed China's Google, released its calendar Q2 (FY27 Q1) results on the evening of Aug. 19. Having updated guidance recently, the quarter came in broadly in line with the Street.

Broad retail growth appears to have bottomed, with margin repair helped by narrower losses in food delivery. Meanwhile, AI & Cloud surged, with both growth and margins moving higher.

The only clear beat, similar to Tencent, was capex, which jumped to over RMB 67bn, underscoring accelerated compute investment across leading players. Spend across the top platforms is ramping quickly.

1) Disclosure structure revamped again. Before reviewing this quarter's results...

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Dolphin ResearchAug 20 at 02:03 PM

BABA (Trans): Cloud +45%, CapEx RMB 67.7 bn in the quarter

External cloud revenue growth accelerated to 45%. AI-related product revenue recorded triple-digit growth for 12 consecutive quarters, reaching RMB 12.376 bn.

However, Qtr CapEx of RMB 67.678 bn drove a FCF net outflow of RMB 44.67 bn. Group Adj. EBITA fell 30% YoY.

Management shortened the AI payback period to 2.5 years, even 2 years. They also reaffirmed 2030 targets of $100 bn external cloud revenue and a 20% EBITA margin.

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Dolphin ResearchMay 13 at 04:50 PM

BABA (Trans): E-com Steady, AI Push

Below is Dolphin Research's summary of BABA's FY26 Q4 earnings call transcript.

For our in-depth read, please see 'Amid the AI boom, is Alibaba bleeding?'.

Shareholder returns: the BOD approved an annual dividend of $1.05 per ADS.

Guidance: no specific next-quarter or full-year revenue/profit outlook. Management reiterated firm investment in AI and consumer biz, and expects on-demand retail UE (unit economics) to turn positive in FY29.

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Dolphin ResearchMay 13 at 04:39 PM

BABA: E-comm Steps Back, AI Takes Lead; Cash Burn Not a Concern

$Alibaba(BABA.US) released its last-quarter FY26 results pre-mkt on May 13. As widely expected, headline performance was weak this quarter.

The main drag was aggressive Lunar New Year promos and 'cash burn', which pushed group profit below even last Q3's peak during the food-delivery price war. The cloud biz also lacked any standout prints, failing to offset the shortfall.

From an expectations perspective, the print landed within the range of updated sell-side estimates, albeit at the low end. So it was not a negative surprise. Specifically, 1) CMR growth appeared soft...

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Dolphin ResearchMar 19 at 03:13 PM

BABA (Trans): Flash Sale 2-yr target RMB 1tn; AI + Cloud 5-yr target RMB 700bn---

Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of $Alibaba(BABA.US) FY26 Q3 earnings call.

For our full take, see 'Alibaba: E-com Slips Again, AI Is the Lifeline'.

1) Shareholder returns: as of Dec 31, 2025, the company held net cash of $42.5bn. Excluding debt maturing beyond five years, net cash exceeds $60bn, underscoring balance-sheet strength that supports continued investment.

2) Performance trends: consolidated revenue was RMB 284.8bn. Excluding Sun Art Retail and Intime revenue, ...

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Dolphin ResearchMar 19 at 03:04 PM

BABA: E-com slips again; AI is the only lifeline---

With a two-track push in food delivery and AI, $Alibaba(BABA.US) released FY26 Q3 results pre-mkt tonight (Mar 19).

From an expectations lens, aside from softer Intl commerce growth and deeper losses in other segments, the print broadly tracked the recently lowered guidance.

In absolute terms, however, performance was weak.

As the tailwind from state subsidies and the monetization uptick cycle largely faded, core commerce growth slowed markedly.

The bright spot was Alibaba Cloud, which continued to post solid growth.

Bloomberg consensus was not timely updated this quarter, so its reference value is limited...

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Dolphin ResearchJan 16 at 12:24 PM

Qwen: Can BABA stage a comeback in the AI internet era?

Qwen ranks among the strongest open-source models globally, and with Alibaba Cloud’s distribution, $Alibaba(BABA.US) has achieved solid enterprise adoption in China.

But its AI-to-C push looks far less compelling.

The Qwen consumer app, initially bundled with model R&D, never broke out, and Quark has wavered amid an unclear strategy.

Versus ByteDance’s early bet on Doubao and Tencent’s heavy backing of Yuanbao, Alibaba has moved slowly and hesitantly on AI-to-C.

As we head into end-2025 and early-2026...

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Dolphin ResearchJan 9 at 11:51 AM

AI Internet: 2026 ByteDance vs. BABA vs. Tencent — Three-Way Showdown

$Alibaba(BABA.US) $ByteDance(BYTED.NA) $TENCENT(00700.HK) $Baidu(BIDU.US) In our previous discussions of the AI value chain, Dolphin Research focused chiefly on North America. We examined the tangled, interdependent bargaining among upstream players.

By contrast, China’s AI ecosystem only truly broke into the mainstream last year, shaped by a consumer-driven base. After DeepSeek broke the compute-cost stalemate, the industry has tacitly converged on an application-first path as the locus of competition...

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