Alibaba shared a preliminary preview for next quarter with the market this morning. Overall looks solid: cloud is tracking higher on growth and margin as expected, and e-comm is still bottoming but not deteriorating further.

Details follow. Highlights are below.

1) Cloud: Sep Q revenue expected to grow >50% vs. +45% in Jun Q. External revenue growth is running ahead of overall, broadly in line with prior expectations.

Margin is the standout. EBITA margin is seen around ~15% vs. 12% last quarter, slightly ahead of the expected pace and moving quickly toward the 20% long-term target.

2) E-comm: Sep Q CMR expected to decline mid-single-digit % YoY vs. -7.5% in Jun Q. Excluding definition/scope changes, roughly +1%, broadly similar to last quarter. At least no worse.

Domestic e-comm EBITA expected roughly flat YoY, vs. ~3–4% decline last quarter. This also suggests a bottoming-and-recovery trend, with platform subsidies trimmed.

3) Food delivery: Sep Q loss approx. RMB 9 bn, slightly narrower than RMB 10 bn last quarter. A neutral print.

4) New AI Lab (model R&D and Qianwen consumer and enterprise businesses): Sep Q loss expected at RMB 10–11 bn, a modest improvement vs. last quarter. Also neutral.

5) No equity financing in FY27; other alternatives will be considered. In other words, no direct share dilution.

$Alibaba(BABA.US)