SK Hynix
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Dolphin Research

SK hynix: Can LTAs smooth the cycle? How far can valuation go?

HBM prices have surged, and SK hynix shares have jumped as much as 10x over the past six months, but Samsung Electronics and Micron Technology are rapidly grabbing supply-chain share.

In Part 1, we mapped the DRAM/HBM supply-demand gaps and identified the cycle inflection; please refer to that piece. However, an industry upcycle does not guarantee steady profits at the company level.

Here we stay focused on SK hynix, analyzing its partnerships with NVIDIA and major ASIC customers. We also compare long-term agreement strategies across the Big Three. We then model forward earnings and assess the current valuation, as incremental memory demand in the AI era is concentrating with a handful of XPU vendors and cloud players...

SANDISK 951 SandiskDr.
HBM demand breakdown 120% NVDA AMD & other GPUs ASIC (TPU, AWS,etc) 100% aRes e
HBM in market share within NVDA (sales) 120% NVDA: SK Hynix 100% Researc Resear
Figure 40: HBM wallet share within ASIC % 100% U70 U70 7% 10% 12% 90% 80% 70% 50+12
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Dolphin Research

SK hynix: How Long Can the AI-led Memory Supercycle Last?

The last two pieces from Dolphin Research outlined the underlying logic and trajectory of the 'memory' rally from a tech lens, while this one shifts back to the company level. It zeroes in on the most representative HBM leader of this cycle — $SK Hynix(SKHY.US).

SK hynix’s current position is delicate. Memory prices have surged and HBM remains tight, driving a step-change in earnings.

The stock at one point rallied ~10x within six months.

On the other hand, Samsung and Micron are rapidly plugging into the supply chain of core customers such as Nvidia, shifting Hynix’s edge from exclusive to merely leading.

As a manufacturing company...

SKhynix N Nasdaq SKhynix SK hynix KRX 000660 Now Listed on Nasdaq 321,000 +1.000
DDR Demand -- Conventional DDR Demand Growth--Conventional bn Gb Computer (PC+La
Figure 3: DRAM/NAND as % of flagship smartphone Figure 4: DRAM/NAND as % of mid/
Products Shipment Growth DDR Used per Unit mn unit IohinResearch GB PC Laptop Mo+23
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Dolphin Research

From HBM stack caps to a NAND ramp, NVDA vs. memory makers: who has the leverage?

In the prior piece, Dolphin Research examined the underlying tech to explain why AI's demand for memory capacity 'suddenly' surged and why HBM became the preferred memory for high-performance GPUs. It also outlined the core concepts and rationale of HBM.

As AI advances, how will memory evolve to deliver larger capacity and higher bandwidth? Two seemingly conflicting signals have surfaced recently in the industry.

On one side, the HBM roadmap keeps ramping, with stack counts moving from 12 to 16 and 20. On the other hand, per SemiAnalysis...

High Bandwidth Memory HBM
Evolution Route 1: more Layers 720um- 口 一 口口 一 一 口 口 C 口口 口 一 一 口口口 口口口 C 高品 C 一
More Complicated Cooling for more Layers Next-Generation HBM Roadmap : Thermal M
Evolution Route 2: uncoventional layout Raised interposer for taller stack heigh+18
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Dolphin Research

Storage Takes the Baton from Compute: Why HBM Stands Out?

From today's vantage point, H2'25 was a pivotal inflection for the AI hardware stack. Until then, 'compute', led by Nvidia GPUs, was center stage. After that, 'storage' — DRAM, NAND and HDD — became the biggest bottleneck across the chain.

As the chart shows, DDR5 DRAM prices surged roughly 7–9x within six months after Sep-25, with NAND up 4–5x over the same period. Correspondingly, ...

High Bandwidth Memory HBM
20 USD/GB 18 16 14 12 10 8 Fig. 5: DDR5 spot vs contract price 6 Spot price 4 2
1,000 1,100 Stock 900 800 700 600 DolphinResear 500 400 SK Hynix 300 200 100 Sam
Parameters of Qwen Flagship Models DRAM Needed to Store Model Param. 3,000 Dolph+17
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Dolphin Research

SK hynix: Memory Rally Over; Are LTAs the Safe Harbor?

SK hynix released its FY26 Q2 results (quarter ended Jun 2026) after the U.S. close, in the morning of Jul 29 (Beijing time). Key takeaways: 1) Core metrics: revenue of KRW 79 tn (+51% QoQ), below consensus (KRW 85 tn).

Growth was driven by both DRAM and NAND, with memory price hikes the largest contributor. GPM was 83%, below street (84–85%)...

SKh hyne
SK Hynix (SKHY.O)FY26Q2 Financial Performance (in W bn) Calendar Year 2Q24A 3Q24
SK Hynix DRAM Revenue DRAM Q/Q(%) 70,000 60,000 hinResearch DolphinResearch Dolp
Data Center Total 5 Capex unit:100mn/$ META Alphabet 十 N Microsoft olphinResearc+6
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Dolphin Research

SK hynix (Trans): LTAs include deposits; capacity adds won't cause immediate oversupply

The following is Dolphin Research's Trans of $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) FY26 Q2 earnings call. It compiles key points from management's discussion.

Core highlights recap begins with shareholder returns. Cash generation has reached a record high, aided by the sale of the Kioxia stake and the ADR offering.

The company is assessing multiple incremental return-of-capital options. Due to regulatory and procedural constraints tied to the ADR offering, it cannot yet disclose the form, size, or timing. It aims to update the market within the year...

图片 1,共 1 张
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Dolphin Research

SK hynix Heads to the U.S. Seeking a Fair Valuation?

Memory is one of the hottest—and most crowded—plays in global tech right now. AI has ignited HBM, DRAM, and NAND all at once, sending shares of SK hynix, Samsung, and Micron up several times over in six months.

Just as the frenzy peaked, the market suddenly reversed, and the memory leaders sold off sharply from their highs. The turn was abrupt.

It was exactly at this 'heated-then-chilled' moment that SK hynix, one of the industry's true heavyweights, brought its stock to Nasdaq. On Jul 10, SK hynix ADRs officially began trading in the U.S. market...

SKhynix N Nasdaq SKhynix SK hynix KRX 000660 Now Listed on Nasdaq 321,000 +1.000
X CSOP 2x Long SK Hynix 7709 : 60K 89.400 6.87%(-6.600) Start Trading Closed:Jul
SK Hynix Revenue Segment 100% 上 arch DRAM NAND ■ 1C Others A search 90% 21% 29%
Global DRAM Market Shares by Revenue esearch SKhynix Samsung Electronics Micron +7