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Google

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Dolphin Research

GOOGL: The 'Money Machine' myth is back. Can the 'sell shovels' play hold up?

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US) released its Q3 2026 results after-hours on Oct 29 (Beijing time). Core metrics in search, cloud, and profit missed estimates, further souring an already unfavorable narrative for Google.

Specifically: 1) search decelerated as the AI cannibalization story began to play out. Q3 search ad growth was only 12%, with a notable QoQ slowdown.

In a period of heavy AI investment, with profit and cash flow expected to be under pressure, a slowdown in the core franchise is the most damaging to the thesis. This validates the AI cannibalization narrative...

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10 Source： Company data， Dolohin Research LONGPORT
88 R- 86 84 84.9% 82 2- 一swvcncc_nos-wao-ooc 84.3% 4 80 D- 78 clohinRese 76 6- S
Meta Ad Impressions & Price Alphabet Paid Clicks & CPC Y/Y change of Paid clicks+13
Meta Platforms

Meta Platforms

USMETA

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Dolphin Research

GOOGL (Trans): AI mode lowered the search monetization; TPU external sales to ramp next yr

Cloud revenue rose 103% YoY to $30.7bn, with backlog reaching $561bn.

However, from Q4, the ramp-up of third-party compute capacity will pressure cloud margins.

Search in Q4 will also lap a tough comp of several percentage points and face larger FX headwinds.

The company is positioning its TPU systems as an external platform, with sales expected to scale meaningfully by 2027.

Google
Alphabet - C

Alphabet - C

USGOOG

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Dolphin Research

Can GOOGL's 'Optical Net' take on NVDA's dominance?

In the previous piece by Dolphin Research, we compared two third-party GPU vendors (3P GPUs) — $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) and $AMD(AMD.US) — on data center networking. NVDA's GB300 was a clear overmatch.

AMD managed to scale up from 8 to 72 GPUs using Broadcom switches, delivering Helios. However, by the time it shipped, the competitor had already moved to Vera Rubin.

AMD achieved parity in GPU interconnect bandwidth, but the cost economics were unfavorable and the engineering design lagged. AMD only just cleared the passing line...

Google AI
Google's Network Evolution Summary Generation ICl domain-chips (Scale-Up) Cross-
海豚投研 DolphinResearch TPU v7 海豚投研 olphinPesearch Dolphin Ironwood semianay Tray y
L T 5 2 X 1 1 投研 Res Res or 1 1 se M A W Source： Google+27
AMD

AMD

USAMD

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Dolphin Research

GOOGL on Trial: market swings or an investment binge to blame?

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) delivered a solid Q2 print. Cloud revenue growth and a still-healthy expansion in backlog are key proof that AI spend is being put to work.

Yet despite a near-replay of Q1, the market reaction flipped, with shares down 7% after the print. This came on top of an earlier pullback as repeated delays to Gemini 3.5 Pro weighed on bullish sentiment. Rising uncertainty over AI ROI...

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0 Source：Company data， a， Dolohin Research
M/M CHANGE IN PIPELINE BY HYPERSCALER EXHIBIT 22： Hyperscalers Added 5 GW of Pip
Hyperscalers DC Capacity available (GW) 15 DolphinResearch 13.8 DolphinRese 2024+16
Alphabet - C

Alphabet - C

USGOOG

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Dolphin Research

GOOGL: AI Crash Imminent? The Savior Has Arrived

Amid recent shifts in the AI narrative and weakening conviction among industry investors, GOOGL—as the first major AI buyer to report earnings—has drawn intense scrutiny. Investors are particularly focused on Capex, Cloud backlog, and cash flow trends.

1. Capex for the period hit $13.2BN (approx. RMB 44.9BN), doubling YoY.

During the earnings call, management raised full-year guidance from $53BN-$56BN to $57BN-$60BN (approx. RMB 195BN-205BN), representing a net increase of nearly $3BN (RMB 10BN)...

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Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL.O) F Financial Results (USD in 100 millions) 1Q25A 2Q25A 3Q
Business Subsidiary Business Segment Corresponding Products Category DolphinR Se
ALPHABET GOOGLE SERVICES GOOGLE ADVERTISING GOOGLE OTHER YOUTUBE YOUTUBE ADS SUB+11
Alphabet - C

Alphabet - C

USGOOG

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Dolphin Research

AI Compute: From Feast to Leftovers?

In Dolphin Research's earlier piece 'AMZN's AI Misfire: Can It Mount a Comeback?', we examined AWS's AI buildout from several angles.

From in-house chips and the Anthropic partnership to model performance, we saw a meaningful step-up in AMZN's end-to-end AI capabilities, with the gap vs. Alphabet clearly narrowing.

Two questions still stand out for us.

First, AI margins at cloud providers seem better than we had penciled in; second, they remain heavily dependent on their model partners...

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AI Industry Value Chain Profit Allocation (Waterfall Chart) Illustrative view ba
Anthropic Flagship Model Pricing Anthropic Smaller Model Pricing 80 Input ($mn/t
Index Comparison - US TPI vs CN TPI vs Coding TPI Absolute ($) Normalized(100) U+17
Alphabet - C

Alphabet - C

USGOOG

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Dolphin Research

GOOGL borrows another 80 bn: rally refill or bubble litmus test?

Full-stack AI bellwether $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) has seen some recent softness in its share price.

At this juncture, the company announced an additional 80bn of external capital to fund AI infrastructure.

Over the past year, Google raised over $85bn via bond offerings across six markets. This new raise is the largest single round to date.

As for use of proceeds, management outlined a broad plan. The 80bn will mainly go to scaling AI infrastructure, concurrently buying call options to partially hedge future dilution from convertible preferreds, and covering taxes due when employee options vest...

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Effective Interest As of As of Maturity Coupon Rate Rate December 31， 2025 March
50，000 30，000 10，000 23509 28666 30656 18915 28848 26640 30698 39113 36150 27747
Net Add (MW) by Hyperscaler & Neocloud Growth Annual Quarterly Absolute YoY% Net+2
Alphabet - C

Alphabet - C

USGOOG

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Dolphin Research

GOOGL (Trans): ROIC-Disciplined AI Investment to Stay Ahead

Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of the FY26 Q1 earnings call for $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US).

For our earnings analysis, please see 'AI Google: No ghost stories, only a bumper harvest'.

I. Core highlights recap.

1) Shareholder returns: the BOD announced a 5% increase to the quarterly dividend.

2) Outlook: at spot FX, Q2 consolidated revenue is expected to see an ~1 ppt FX tailwind (vs. 3 ppts in Q1); full-year CapEx guidance was raised to $180-190bn (prior $175-185bn)...

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Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL.O) ) Financial Results (USD in 100 millions) 1Q24A 2Q24A 3Q
Citigroup

Citigroup

USC

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Dolphin Research

'AI' GOOGL: No Scary Stories, Just a Windfall

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US) Q1 blew past expectations again. With 40% of incremental revenue already driven by AI‑related cloud, it may be time to shed the ad label and call it an AI company.

Key takeaways: 1) Cloud was explosive, underpinning the valuation. Revenue reached 20 bn (+63% YoY), a small upside even vs a more bullish +60% buy‑side view and well ahead of peers.

Crucially, backlog (RPO) stands at 462 bn, nearly doubling from 240 bn at end‑2023. The bulk is cloud contracts...

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Alphabet Inc.(GOOGL.O) Financial Results (USD in 100 millions) 1Q24A 2Q24A 3Q24A
ALPHABET GOOGLE SERVICES GOOGLE ADVERTISING GOOGLE OTHER YOUTUBE YOUTUBE ADS SUB
9Ncm— GPO snto sN'aun Exhibit 1： In March， global daily avg. web visits to ChatG+17
Alphabet

Alphabet

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