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Meta/Facebook
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Dolphin ResearchJul 30 at 01:56 AM

META's Awkward Spot: Big Promises, Big Spend, No Payoff

Hi everyone, this is Dolphin Research. As the spark for the latest 'excess compute, supply chain peak' narrative, $Meta Platforms(META.US) posted results likely to disappoint all sides.

For Meta investors, Q2 revenue growth and the next-quarter guide both missed. Opex rose on litigation expenses, pressuring earnings and rapidly draining FCF and net cash.

For supply-chain investors, the full-year Capex guide only lifted the lower end of the range, well below aggressive expectations. Although Zuckerberg still says compute remains tight...

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Meta Platforms

Meta Platforms

USMETA

Meta/FacebookFinancial Analysis
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Dolphin ResearchJul 29 at 10:45 PM

META (Minutes: No 2027 Capex guidance; racing to build compute capacity in the next two years.

Meta 2Q26 Earnings call

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Meta Platforms

Meta Platforms

USMETA

Conference MinutesMeta/Facebook
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Dolphin ResearchJul 10 at 11:40 AM

Excess subleasing vs. aggressive buildouts: Is META's 'split personality' a blatant open play?

After $Meta Platforms(META.US) began weighing compute leasing, it stoked worries that the compute supply chain may be peaking. While the market debated whether this was a stopgap or a long-term strategy, Meta answered with three concrete moves: it is serious about the compute biz.

Expanding data centers is the most straightforward prep. Mass-producing in-house ASICs aims to cut cost and lift ROI.

The newly launched LLM, Muse Spark 1.1, is the true upside surprise in Dolphin Research's view. These three changes will likely push near-term Capex higher...

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Alphabet

Alphabet

USGOOGL

Meta/FacebookHot topic
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Dolphin ResearchJul 6 at 11:29 AM

AI compute too costly: Is META upending the game?

Last week, Bloomberg reported that $Meta Platforms(META.US) is building a cloud infra biz and plans to lease compute externally.

The single headline slammed Neocloud—an AI hardware vendor heavily exposed to Meta—and kicked off an 'excess compute' narrative. Bearish sentiment spread, and even storage names with the strongest recent fundamentals got hit by panic selling.

Bottom line, Dolphin Research thinks: (1) judging by the day’s drawdown, the selloff likely overshot; yesterday’s move looked like a chain reaction in a crowded long tape once signs emerged that a short thesis might be getting validated. (2) At the same time...

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Amazon

Amazon

USAMZN

Meta/FacebookHot topic
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Dolphin ResearchApr 30 at 11:26 AM

Meta (Trans): AI LT vision is not productivity tools, but broad empowerment of everyday users.

The following is a transcript of the FY26Q1 earnings call for $Meta Platforms(META.US), compiled by Dolphin Research.

For our earnings take, please see '《单腿走路...》'.

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Meta Platforms

Meta Platforms

USMETA

Meta/FacebookConference Minutes
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Dolphin ResearchApr 30 at 11:04 AM

Single-track strategy limits Meta AI's imagination

Hi everyone, this is Dolphin Research! $Meta Platforms(META.US) Q1 itself was not the problem; the issue is that the new guidance failed to ease fears of margin erosion. That diverged from pre-earnings chatter about tighter cost controls, which had led investors to expect spending cuts.

At bottom, investors are again losing patience because there is still no visible second growth curve to monetize the AI story. Specifically, we note:

1) No spending pullback; more investment ahead. META raised full-year Capex guidance by $10bn to $125–145bn, driven by higher prices for memory and other components...

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Meta Platforms

Meta Platforms

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Meta/FacebookFinancial Analysis
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Dolphin ResearchFeb 9 at 10:34 AM

AI Endgame: Power Calls the Shots?---

Is North America's power shortage a near- to mid-term supply-demand mismatch? Or a long-term structural issue?

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Bio-Techne

Bio-Techne

USTECH

NVIDIAGoogleMicrosoftAmazonMeta/Facebook
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Dolphin ResearchJan 30 at 04:27 AM

META (Follow-up call Trans): Most capex translates into post-2027 capacity

Below is Dolphin Research's summary of the analyst follow-up session with $Meta Platforms(META.US) after the earnings call. The meeting was conducted as a Q&A.

Q: The European Commission deems Meta's paid model non-compliant. Are there new EU compliance standards for product updates, launch timing, and pricing?

Also, how will you address revenue and cost impacts in 2026? For instance, could you reduce personalized ads? A: Dec 2025...

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Meta Platforms

Meta Platforms

USMETA

Meta/FacebookConference Minutes
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Dolphin ResearchJan 29 at 05:54 AM

META (Trans): AI Improving Recommendations; FB & IG Engagement to Keep Rising

Below is Dolphin Research's compilation of $Meta Platforms(META.US) FY25Q4 earnings call Trans. For our First Take on the print, see 'Meta: Pouring in hundreds of billions? Hypergrowth is what matters'.

I. Key financial metrics — 1) Guidance steps on the gas: As a top-tier ad company, Meta still guides to ~30% growth (~400bps FX tailwind). That pace lets investors set aside minor flaws for now.

Advertising remains a gold mine, and for well-capitalized, data-rich leaders, AI is a powerful share-gain lever. It should further lift monetization efficiency...

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Meta Platforms

Meta Platforms

USMETA

Meta/FacebookConference Minutes
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Dolphin ResearchJan 29 at 02:03 AM

Massive Capex? Hypergrowth Silences the Skeptics

Hi all, this is Dolphin Research! $Meta Platforms(META.US) released its Q4 2025 results after the close on Jan 28 ET.

On this year's guidance, META is not meaningfully dialing back its spending budget. But a blowout revenue growth outlook is a notable positive for a name that has been under pressure all quarter.

Specifically: 1) Guidance is pedal-to-the-metal. As a top-scale ad platform, it is still guiding to roughly 30% growth (incl. ~4pts FX tailwind).

At that pace, most minor blemishes can be set aside for now. Ads are a gold mine...

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Meta Platforms

Meta Platforms

USMETA

Meta/FacebookFinancial Analysis

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