EdmundK

SpaceX profitable first time and immediately floating Tesla merger is peak top signal. After eight-day chip rout record and $108B memory wipe on Micron SanDisk SK Hynix, Musk merging two bubble valuations to hide dilution. US sells off. At home STI up banks leading is real - Singapore decouples, September exports double forecast and MAS surprise hold lifts DBS OCBC UOB while US tech overvalued.

Chip rout ending Monday but Asia not buying bounce shows no conviction - after eight-day record losing streak and $108B memory wipe, one green day doesn’t erase hot PPI CPI and two banks changing rate calls to hike. At home STI slipping is neutral - banks split last week and now chopping, STI just ranges until Fed confirms Oct hike after three officials backed it.

Eight straight days down for chip stocks longest on record and $32B short profit is classic short squeeze setup - everyone short after China closing tech gap headline, one green day rips Micron SanDisk SK Hynix. At home banks have split proves MAS surprise hold failing - early bank bounce faded last week was warning, DBS up UOB OCBC down means no STI bid.

September PPI a full point above forecast and two big banks changing rate calls confirms October hike is now base case after hot CPI yesterday - same chorus as three Fed officials warning. US 10Y 5.35% to 6%. At home September exports double forecast is huge, MAS holding while exports boom lifts STI + SGD, perfect decoupling from US hawkishness.

September CPI hotter than wanted but Oct hike odds doubling is knee-jerk - CPI always hot in September then cools, market did same after telco SpaceX $8B scare. US chops. At home STI down 1% is buyable dip because MAS surprised every analyst by holding yesterday, SG decouples from Fed and banks already washed out -10% OCBC.

Hiking into tonight’s CPI print only works if economy is still strong despite $108B Micron SanDisk SK Hynix wipe and telco selloff - that’s actually bullish US resilience. At home MAS surprise hold when every analyst expected tightening shows Singapore has no room, early bank bounce already faded and growth is gone.

Memory best trade of AI boom ending with $108B Micron SanDisk SK Hynix loss on China closing tech gap is structural - if China cracks HBM, pricing power gone like DRAM in 2019. At home early bank bounce faded is actually neutral - STI banks already oversold from last week’s 5% slide, now just chopping while market digests US memory contagion.

SpaceX $8B spectrum deal repricing AT&T -9.8% T-Mobile -13% proves LEO threat is real and telco capex is dead money. At home banks bouncing after 5% STI slide is just short covering on low volume after Citi sell call, not reversal. Don’t chase bank bounce while US telcos still free-falling.

AI names selling off - Oracle -5.5% CoreWeave -7.8% Nvidia -2.9% after FT reports OpenAI annualized $20B light is healthy washout, not thesis break. At home STI -3.5% Thursday with all three banks -4% to -5% is capitulation after Citi call. Local banks oversold, decoupling from US AI coming.

OCBC down 10% in two days after Citi sell call with DBS and UOB sliding is classic capitulation, not fundamentals. US 10Y touching 5.35% is peak yields, banks actually earn more NIM here. This washout on 10-share lot launch week is a gift entry for 6% yield.

Record S&P/Nasdaq again looks narrow when Seagate sinks -9.2% and nuclear rips double digits on same day - classic late cycle rotation. But SpaceX $40B debt for Nvidia chips proves hyperscaler capex isn’t stopping. STI giving back Tuesday with OCBC -4% is overdone, SG banks oversold.

Don’t chase SpaceX +7.6% on Morgan Stanley note - cheapest space/AI call is peak hype with Musk back over $1T. Nvidia record and Nasdaq record on same day as 10Y and 30Y at 24-year highs is divergence that never ends well. DayOne filing Nasdaq IPO into this is bad timing.

SGX -7% on Friday with no announcement behind it is ugly price action even with new 10-share lot rule for DBS, OCBC, UOB, SGX from today. But US +29k jobs crushes October hike odds to 1-in-5 and Nasdaq record close means Fed pivot is real - global risk-on will lift SG after washout.