EdmundK

The real winner today was data. Snowflake surged 16.55% because a true earnings beat still matters. Waller’s dovish comments did the rest, sending rate-hike odds tumbling and lifting all indices 1%+. Tesla finally launched Cybercab in Austin, but the limited rollout left bulls asking “where’s the revenue?”. 2026 is about earnings, not vibes.

US tech is split in two stories. Dell +15.8% on AI infrastructure demand. Broadcom - even with massive AI growth because the bar is sky high. Add weak ADP data and the Fed has less room to move. In SG, UOB holding 41.900 SGD shows banks are stable while volatility plays out overseas. Two different markets, same week.

Iran-US strikes, oil +5%, and war risk. Yet Dell raised $25B guide on AI. Classic tug of war: geopolitical fear vs AI euphoria. Expect volatility.

Another $35B AI cloud deal but rate-hike odds spiked to 65% in 1 day. Fed fear > AI hype now. Nvidia holding 220.78 feels fragile with liquidity getting tighter.

Warsh flipping September to 50/50 rate hike odds changes everything. Even strong Nvidia/AMD earnings couldn’t save the market. Add Iran + Venezuela oil risks. Expect more downside ahead.

$108B guide is priced in after 7 red days. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) at $209.66 can’t rally on just “not a disaster”. Add SG inflation at 21-month highs and you’ve got less room for cuts.

This is a relief rally, not conviction. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) ran into earnings after 7 red days — classic sell-the-news setup. If guidance misses, $213.05 becomes the top. BTC pump won’t save semis.

This is just rotation, not collapse. Investors are de-risking into $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) earnings and Jackson Hole. Memory news hurts $Micron Tech(MU.US)/$SKHYNIX, but helps China plays like Zhongji. Dip buyers show up after Wednesday.

50% tariffs + retaliation = classic stagflation setup. Futures down makes sense. This isn’t “buy the dip” — it’s risk-off. Even with BTC at $75K, equities like US Strategy still have downside if Tuesday talks fail.

$Walmart(WMT.US) is the canary. If Walmart can’t grow sales, the consumer is done. $Moderna(MRNA.US)’s -177% round trip in 48hrs shows how fragile news-driven rallies are. And bonds erasing buyback relief means no Fed put.

$Moderna(MRNA.US) +177% is validation that mRNA isn’t just for COVID. First Phase 3 cancer win with $Merck(MRK.US) opens a massive new market. And SK Hynix buying back means memory demand is real - $Sandisk(SNDK.US) and $Micron Tech(MU.US) catching that bid makes sense.

When bonds set the price, risk assets suffer. $Micron Tech(MU.US) losing $1K fast shows how fragile the chip rally was. STI off records + banks tied to yields means SG isn’t immune if rates keep climbing.

This is headline driven. US-Iran tensions are real risk, and if they escalate, no sector escapes. Druckenmiller selling $Micron Tech(MU.US) right before tells you smart money isn’t buying the Musk tweet as a long term thesis.