PumpLord_69
PumpLord_69
My portfolio is bleeding red on $Unitedhealth(UNH.US) but I'm actually adding more today. Here's my thinking: the cyberattack happened, Medicare Advantage rates got clipped, and the stock already dropped 40% from highs. That's three bad things priced in. Meanwhile they just raised the dividend to $2.21, which tells me the board sees cash flow normalizing. Contrarian? Yes. Stupid? Hope not. 🤞
$Tesla(TSLA.US) chart: trading $416, up 1.96% . 52-week range $214-$498. Cybercab news priced in? Next catalyst FSD approval in China or Europe. RSI around 55. 📈
UBS just added 128% more $Strategy(MSTR.US) in Q4 . $7T asset manager now sitting on 576k IBIT shares too. Robeco also disclosed 112k shares . Institutions are not waiting for mNAV >1. They‘re accumulating while retail is terrified. 123.00 close, PB 0.75. This is the quiet before the storm. 🐋
$Circle(CRCL.US) closed $56.63 yesterday, -2.13% . 50MA $77.25, 200MA $109.84 . Death cross already weeks ago. Volume 8.5M vs 10-day avg 12M . Put/call 0.65 still bullish . Wolfe $40 is the floor? Or the ceiling? 📉
$Intel(INTC.US) AI strategy seems more system-focused than purely GPU-centric, perhaps avoiding a direct confrontation with Nvidia 🤔 Intel's shift towards system-wide solutions rather than simply competing on GPUs represents a more conservative approach.
$Circle(CRCL.US) recent price action closely resembles that of crypto proxy stocks, being deeply tied to expectations of stablecoins and digital payments.
$Meta Platforms(META.US) feels like new Nvidia-style narrative stock but cash flow backed by ads. AI bet worth it or bubble vibes? 🤔
This Lunar New Year, China’s tech giants kicked off a new round of AI wars.
Alibaba launched a ¥3B “Spring Festival Treat” campaign, driving 10 million free milk tea orders in 9 hours across its platforms. Tencent invested ¥1B into WeChat’s “Yuanbao” AI red packets to deepen engagement.
ByteDance took another path — its Dream platform released Seedance 2.0, a video AI model that boosts usable output for short clips to over 90%, far above the ~20% industry average.
Beyond subsidies, this battle is about who can truly integrate AI into daily life. The holiday rush helps shape habits, gather data, and train models — all aiming to become the go-to “AI ask” gateway.
The winner won’t just get traffic, but could define the super-app of the AI era.
So — who’s your pick? Alibaba’s commerce, Tencent’s social grip, or ByteDance’s tech edge?
$Alibaba(BABA.US)$BABA-W(09988.HK)$BABA-WR(89988.HK)$Tencent(TCEHY.US)$TENCENT(00700.HK)
AWS cloud grew 23%, a bit above expectations. We also talked yesterday that once its capital spending surpasses Google's, it’s expected to fall more than Google did. But oops, didn’t expect it to drop this much.$Amazon.US
$Coreweave(CRWV.US) There's absolutely no support, I'm speechless.
Alright, $Amazon(AMZN.US) reports after the bell tonight. This one's a big deal—it was the laggard in the "Mag 7" last year, so everyone's watching to see if it can turn the narrative around.
Here's the real question: can AWS keep firing on all cylinders? Growth hit 20% last quarter, which was a great sign. If it slows down at all, even if they beat on earnings, the stock's gonna feel it.
Then there's the capex worry. Google's huge $180B+ spending plan just freaked the market out. Now Amazon's up next, and if they guide to a massive number without showing killer AWS growth to justify it, investors are going to bolt.
The bright spot is the AI story, mainly through Anthropic. The talk is that partnership could be worth $10B+ to AWS by 2026. We need to hear that's actually happening.
Long story short, it all comes down to the balance between AWS growth and spending. Strong growth makes big capex okay. Weak growth makes it a disaster. That's what'll move the needle tonight.
What's everyone's take? Buying any post-report dip, or staying clear?
Watching CRWV closely into earnings 👀 execution will matter more than hype at this valuation.
🎯 Post-Earnings Trading Checklist for $Alphabet(GOOGL.US)
Scenario 1: Earnings Beat (Trigger Conditions)
- Key Metrics: Total revenue > $95.9B, Adj. EPS > $2.65, Cloud revenue > $16.2B, and clear revenue guidance mentioned for AI partnerships (e.g., Apple Siri).
- Short-term Strategy (1-3 days):
1. If the stock gaps up at open (price > $350), do not chase. Wait to scale in on a pullback to the $335-$340 support zone.
2. If it pulls back directly to the support zone, enter a first position (≤20% of total capital) between $335-$340.
- Mid-term Strategy (1-2 weeks):
1. If the price breaks the previous high of $350.93, add to the position (bringing total allocation to 30%-40%), targeting the $360-$370 resistance zone.
2. If it subsequently pulls back to the 20-day MA (~$326), consider averaging down.
- Risk Note: If the price gaps up then quickly falls below $335, pause new entries and monitor support strength.
Scenario 2: Earnings Meet Expectations (Trigger Conditions)
- Key Metrics: Total revenue $95.0B-$95.9B, EPS $2.58-$2.65, Cloud revenue $16.0B-$16.2B, with no major surprises in guidance.
- Short-term Strategy:
1. Adopt a wait-and-see approach. Do not rush to enter; wait for a clear directional break (above $350 or below $335).
2. If it consolidates within $335-$350, consider a small test position (≤15% allocation) near $335.
- Medium-term Strategy:
1. If support at $335 holds subsequently, gradually increase allocation to 25%-30%.
2. If support at $335 fails, exit and wait for the next support zone around $325-$330.
Scenario 3: Earnings Miss (Trigger Conditions)
- Key Metrics: Total revenue < $95.0B, EPS < $2.58, Cloud revenue < $16.0B, or vague guidance on AI partnerships.
‼️ NOT AN FINANCIAL ADVICE ‼️
I sold some of $Netflix(NFLX.US). It always rallies and then plunges...
It's getting closer and closer to $140, is there any hope for it?
With AMZN focusing heavily on AI infra, they must be a huge buyer of AMD Instinct chips too, right?
$ASML(ASML.US) Advanced EUV sales plus High-NA system deliveries are showing real demand.
Nvidia remains core AI holding imo.
$Oracle(ORCL.US) The core database business is stable, but the stock is being valued on the risky AI infrastructure bet, which has hit a financing snag
NVIDIA announced a $150M investment in AI inference startup Baseten. Strategic move to nurture the ecosystem, but immaterial to earnings near-term
$Unitedhealth(UNH.US) A defensive, low-beta stock. Typically doesn't participate in speculative tech rallies, providing portfolio balance and stability.
$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) Q4 net profit TWD 505.7 billion, market estimate TWD 467 billion;
Q4 gross margin 62.3%, market estimate 60.6%
This gross margin beats all expectations!
$Micron Tech(MU.US) MU quietly strong. HBM for AI is a forever story.