AI Gossip

The AI wave continued to fuel Taiwan’s export orders in September, surging 62.4% year-on-year to a record high US$114.2 billion, media report. Orders from the United States rose 79.4% to $45.4B, topping all destinations. By product category, electronics orders rose 71% to $47.42B, and ICT/communications jumped 87.3% to $43.88B. Momentum is expected to remain hot in October, seen $112.5B - $115.9B, since Sept & Oct mark peak seasonality. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $SpaceX(SPCX.US) $Oracle(ORCL.US)

Source: Dan Nystedt

Substrate shortages will remain in 2027 due to shortages of materials and production machinery, said Unimicron Chairman Shan-Chieh Chien, media report. Equipment lead times have lengthened “significantly” and certain equipment now take 30 months for delivery. Lead times for over 80% of equipment have lengthened as everyone builds new plants. In materials, shortages have been ongoing for nearly 2-years, and the company continues to monitor them (ABF, T-glass, CCL). Substrates are a key component for advanced semiconductor packaging. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX.US) $Amkor Tech(AMKR.US) #semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt

The AI build-out will keep the boom in high-end CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) going to 2030 said Elite Material (EMC) Chairman Ding Yu Dong, media report, adding EMC is expanding capacity in Taiwan, Malaysia and China to meet demand. EMC may expand its US plant depending on demand and US policy. He also does not see PTFE as a threat to high-end CCL due to cost, legacy process issues, supply chain dynamics and more, and said only one player is pushing PTFE now while Elite and others are taking a wait-and-see approach. EMC’s M10 material (CCL) will launch at end 2026, and M11 in 2028.

Source: Dan Nystedt

China exported ~$48B worth of cars in 3Q26.

Source: Chips & Wafers

Intel CEO: It will take Intel a long time to establish a competitive foundry business, Nikkei Asia reports, citing CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who said it took TSMC 10 – 20 years to become the world’s biggest chip foundry.

Source: Dan Nystedt

Rumor: Google’s next-gen AI silicon, the TPU v9, may face delays due to low yields on glass substrates used in advanced packaging, DigiTimes reports. The Google–MediaTek project was originally slated for mass production in late 2027 and volume shipments in 2028. This rumor is the latest sign of trouble on the advanced packaging side, with the companies reportedly making design adjustments to resolve the issue. $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Intel(INTC.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) #mediatek #semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt

Powertech Technology (PTI), the Taiwanese OSAT, just disclosed a ~$23M packaging equipment order from Onto Innovation.

Source: Chips & Wafers

TSMC’s 2nd fab in Kumamoto will open in December, 2028 and use 3nm production technology instead of the 6/12nm nodes originally planned, media report, adding the new 3nm production plan calls for 6,000 wafer per month (wpm) for phase 1 capacity.

Source: Dan Nystedt

AUO Chairman Paul Peng defended the use of Micro LEDs for co-packaged optics (CPO), saying the technology works well for short distances (10cm) inside server chassis, while consuming only 5% to 10% of the power used by copper wires, media report, adding that a new optical cable revealed by Credo at the OCP Summit last week proves the technology is a viable alternative to high-cost traditional lasers. Credo debuted a 1.6T ZeroFlap Active Light Cable using a micro-emitter architecture (supporting distances up to 50 meters) at OCP. $Credo Tech(CRDO.US) #CPO #semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt

Samsung has accepted Nvidia’s request to have TSMC manufacture the base die for NVHBM (Nvidia’s custom HBM based on next-gen HBM4E), a concession to the world’s biggest HBM buyer, media report. Samsung joins SK Hynix and Micron in using TSMC’s 3nm base die to ensure consistent performance and reduce validation work across suppliers.

Source: Dan Nystedt

TSMC predicts A14 to be a bigger node than N2. Every new node is now breaking records. TSMC's N2 node grew 3x q/q to $3B+ in 3Q26. The node also happens to be the first billion dollar opener for TSMC nodes when it hit $1B+ in 2Q26. That $1.0B was just 3% of wafer revenue vs 11% for N7 at its debut as TSMC's quarterly wafer base grew >4x during this time. Every generation now starts smaller in share and larger in dollars. N2's 14% jump over N3 is the biggest generational step in a decade.

Source: Sravan Kundojjala

TSMC 3Q26: Revenue and OPM above high-end guidance while GM above mid-point.

Source: Sravan Kundojjala

AMAT Investor Event

Source: Sravan Kundojjala

AI server giant Wistron’s board approved 2 new capital spending projects and a plan to buy a factory from Coretronic Corp. for no more than NT$1 billion to convert for AI server production, media report.

Source: Dan Nystedt

Nanya 3Q26

Source: Sravan Kundojjala

Prices for advanced semiconductor testing are set to rise 10% - 30% as supply falls far short of demand, media report, calling upcoming price increases ‘the strongest in history.’ Chip testing times continue to lengthen as chips become more complex and demand booms as Cloud giants launch their own AI chips. Testing prices for rush orders for smaller clients have doubled, the report says, adding that ASE, KYEC, PTI and Ardentec are all benefitting from stronger pricing. $Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX.US) $Amkor Tech(AMKR.US) $Teradyne(TER.US) $Formfactor(FORM.US) $Cohu(COHU.US) #BESI #Advantest #TokyoElectron #ChromaATE

Source: Dan Nystedt

Formosa Plastics is eyeing Texas for a major expansion in US semiconductor-related chemical production to supply TSMC and other US-based clients, media report, citing company Chairman WB Kuo. The company already operates a petrochemical mega-site in Texas. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) #semiconductors #FormosaPlastics #supplychain

Source: Dan Nystedt

ASML, AMAT, Lam and KLA are all engaged in Terafab project. SpaceX will spend $3B+ on pilot line and $16.8B on 1st Phase high volume fab. KLA could play a critical role in Terafab's early ramp (inspection and metrology tools) to tackle process defects and accelerate yield learning.

Source: Sravan Kundojjala

Taiwan AI power supply giant Lite-On Technology has inked a US$350 million (NT$11.06B) contract for construction of its plant in McKinney, Texas, aimed at high-voltage DC power racks and AI infrastructure production, media report, adding the contract is part of a US$919 million plan approved by Lite-On’s board in April. Lite-On’s 2026 capex plan is now NT$18 billion, versus NT$7 billion last year. #Texas #AI #liteon

Source: Dan Nystedt

The start of Nvidia Vera Rubin server production, mass Blackwell GB300 and B300 server production are fueling record high revenue at AI server giant Wistron, and AMD CEO Lisa Su’s recent visit to a new Wistron plant (Zhubei A1) point to continued strength with Helios server orders as well, media report.

Source: Dan Nystedt

Fragmented customer landscape is good for semicaps. Two years ago, TSMC dependency emerged as a concern for suppliers (Intel/memory weakness). But things took a different turn with fragmented leading-edge foundry landscape (five leading-edge players outside China now) and growing influence of memory and packaging houses. A larger customer base means better profit margins, as no single customer has outsized bargaining power.

Source: Sravan Kundojjala

MediaTek's 3rd quarter revenue hit a record high NT$168.06 billion, up 18.2% year-on-year and up 10.2% over the 2nd quarter, media report, also exceeding the top end of guidance (NT$159.8B).

Source: Dan Nystedt

TSMC supplier Gudeng Precision will begin operations at its first USA plant in Glendale, Arizona in the 4th quarter to supply semiconductor equipment to TSMC and other clients, as well as produce aerospace-related products, media report, adding Gudeng executives said Arizona has complete industrial clusters in both sectors. Gudeng’s top chip-related products include wafer carriers, advanced packaging carriers. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) #semiconductors #Arizona

Source: Dan Nystedt

Taiwan's semiconductor exports in September rose 46.1% year-on-year to US$29.74 billion, raising January thru September to $220.0B, up 47.3%, and leading Taiwan exports to an all-time high for a single month in September.

Source: Dan Nystedt