melph

melph

AssetsTop 3%ReturnsTop 6%
9Following9Followers74Likes & Bookmarks
M
melph

I am watching $Amazon(AMZN.US) Amazon's results this week, mainly its cloud business AWS. It has grown faster for five quarters in a row so slower growth would be a warning sign. Sales may look weak because Prime Day moved earlier and with huge AI spending, investors want proof it pays off.

C
Captain's Watch
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Micron Rebounds as Huang Dismisses Glut Fears

Micron bounced Friday as Jensen Huang played down fears of a memory glut, with the Fed and Big Tech earnings ahead. At home, REITs held their gains. Let's dig in 👇💬 Memory makers report this week. Is ...

M
melph

Considering whether to buy $Tencent HK SDR 10to1(HTCD.SG). Tencent's slide to a 52 week low looks less like a broken business and more like the market repricing AI spending. At about 13 times earnings it's cheap, and some brokers still see upside, but others, like Morgan Stanley, have cut targets, so buying now means accepting that the downtrend may continue before it turns.

C
Captain's Watch
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Western Digital Beats, Chip Stocks Crumble

Western Digital grew revenue 55% and raised its dividend, then fell 6%. Lam Research beat and fell twice as hard. At home, banks slip while REITs bounce. Let's dig in 👇💬 Chip stocks are selling off on...

M
melph

The market rewarded $Meta Platforms(META.US) for spending more and punished $Tesla(TSLA.US) for spending less, and I think that comes down to proof. Meta's revenue grew 26% to a record 64.6 billion USD and its shares rose after hours even as it lifted its capex forecast to as much as 145 billion USD, so investors can see the ad business paying for the AI push. Tesla beat on earnings but its shares reversed after it cut its 2026 capex forecast to about 20 billion USD from over 25 billion, and they were down almost 5% before the open on Thursday. A spending cut at a company priced on robots and autonomy raises doubts about those ambitions, especially with the stock trading at roughly 195 times a simple earnings run rate. My takeaway is that heavy spending is forgiven when revenue backs it up, while a valuation built on future promises has little room for any sign of retreat.

C
Captain's Watch
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Tesla Cuts Capex, Meta Raises It

Tesla and Meta reported the same night and made opposite calls on AI spending. One cut its budget, the other raised it. At home, banks are easing back after Wednesday's gains. Let's dig in 👇💬 Tesla cu...

M
melph

The STI opened higher today helped by a Wall Street rally and easing oil prices. I see it as a small bounce and not a turning point. The index is still well below the level it held at the end of September and the recent weakness seems to come from worries about AI spending hitting tech stocks, high US bond yields and tensions in the Middle East, not from any problem with Singapore companies themselves. Since the index is heavily weighted towards the local banks, I think its direction in the coming weeks will depend a lot on interest rates and on how the upcoming earnings turn out, so I'm staying patient and not reading too much into one morning's move.

C
Captain's Watch
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — SpaceX Turns a Profit and Opens Tesla Merger Talks

SpaceX made money for the first time, and immediately put a Tesla merger on the table. At home, the STI is up and the banks are leading. Let's dig in 👇💬 Would a SpaceX-Tesla merger be a good deal for ...

M
melph

$iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX.US)

Context

The iShares Semiconductor ETF holds a basket of US listed chip companies, including designers and equipment makers, so it gives broad exposure to the semiconductor cycle. The price has swung a lot in recent months, which suits short term trading.

My trade

I bought a small amount, quickly sold it for a gain a couple of days later, and bought again after the price pulled back. This is more of a trade than a long term holding, since many of the companies in the ETF look overvalued to me.

Takeaway

Keeping the size small and taking profits on the swings makes more sense here than holding for the long run, given how stretched valuations look.

2026.08.03 ~ 2026.10.15 All orders
Cumulative P/L23.90 (USD)+5%
2026.08.032026.10.15
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!
M
melph

$Boustead(F9D.SG)

Context

Boustead Singapore is a Singapore listed company with businesses in energy engineering, real estate solutions, geospatial and healthcare. It has a strong balance sheet with cash well above its debt and pays dividends, though its earnings are lumpy because much of the work is project based. The price dropped sharply recently.

My trade

I started a small position after the drop. I first bought with dividends in mind, but the ordinary dividend turned out to be lower than I wanted. The price has fallen further since, so it's a small paper loss for now.

Takeaway

Starting small leaves room to add a little more if the price keeps falling, and special dividends are a bonus but not something to count on.

2026.09.11 ~ 2026.10.14 All orders
Cumulative P/L-18.21 (SGD)-4%
2026.09.112026.10.14
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!
M
melph

$CapitaLandInvest(9CI.SG)

Context

CapitaLand Investment is a Singapore listed real estate investment manager that runs funds and REITs across several countries and pays dividends. It earns recurring fees from managing other people's property assets, which needs less capital than owning everything itself, though its earnings still depend on property markets and fundraising conditions. Its price slid steadily over the past month, which put it on my watchlist.

My trade

I started a small position after the pullback, both for the dividends and because I felt the price had dropped quite far. It's a fresh position so it's too early to say how it will turn out.

Takeaway

Starting with a small amount lets me add more if the price keeps falling and I will watch how the price and dividend develop from here.

2026.09.11 ~ 2026.10.13 All orders
Cumulative P/L0%
2026.09.112026.10.13
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!
M
melph

$OCBC Bank(O39.SG)

Context

OCBC is another of Singapore's three local banks and a reliable dividend payer. I started building a position in mid 2025 mainly for the dividends before the price climbed to its highs.

My trade

I bought in two lots over about ten days rather than trying to time the perfect entry. The position is still in the green even after the recent pullback from the peak.

Takeaway

I'm happy to keep collecting the dividends, and I may add more if the price continues to fall, though I think OCBC is much more overvalued than UOB even after the pullback, so I'll be more cautious about buying here.

2025.05.13 ~ 2026.10.12 All orders
Cumulative P/L2860.59 (SGD)+76%
2025.05.132026.10.12
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!
M
melph

$UOB(U11.SG)

Context

UOB is one of Singapore's three local banks and a steady dividend payer, which is why it sits on a lot of local investors' watchlists. I started building a position in late 2025 mainly for the dividends, before the price climbed to its recent highs.

My trade

I bought in two lots about a month apart rather than trying to time the perfect entry. The position is still in the green even after the recent pullback from the peak.

Takeaway

Spreading out my buys and holding for the dividends has worked well so far, and if the price continues to fall, I may add more UOB.

2025.08.20 ~ 2026.10.12 All orders
Cumulative P/L1397.84 (SGD)+19%
2025.08.202026.10.12
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!
M
melph

I think the controversy could keep pressure on AI stocks in the near term as investors question whether AI revenue can justify massive infrastructure spending.

For buyers, I see a potential opportunity but not a reason to rush in. I think we should watch valuations, earnings and evidence that AI spending is translating into sustainable cash flows. And favour companies with diversified revenue streams over those heavily dependent on OpenAI's ability to meet its growth targets.

C
Captain's Compass
Featured🎁[Reward] OpenAI ARR: $50B or $70B? The Gross-to-Net Question

On Oct 8, 2026 SGT, the Financial Times dropped a story that spooked the entire AI complex: $OpenAI(OpenAI.NA) told investors its annualized revenue run-rate (ARR) was “approaching $50B” as of end-Sep...

OpenAI ARR: ~$50B in September, up )~3.3x y/y TM Net annualized revenue run rate
Trump Says US Won't Attack Iran Before Midterm Elections 0% A [ DJIA 51,231.64 -
米 Anthropic l TickerTrends Anthropic Annualized Revenue Run-Rate TickerTrends tr
M
melph

Singapore bank stocks have pulled back sharply over the past few days amid concerns about interest rates, earnings growth and profit-taking after their strong run. I see this as a potential buying opportunity but would wait for valuations to become more attractive before adding, rather than rushing in after a few down days.

C
Captain's Watch
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — OpenAI's $20B Gap Hits AI Stocks

The FT reported OpenAI's annualized revenue is about $20B lower than thought, and the AI chain sold off: Oracle -5.5%, CoreWeave -7.8%, Nvidia -2.9%. At home, the STI closed -3.5% Thursday as all thre...

M
melph

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)

Context: MSFT is one of the companies I’m quite comfortable holding long term. I like the combination of its established software ecosystem, cloud business and growing AI opportunity. The main question for me is whether the huge AI investment will translate into sustainable earnings and cash flow growth.

My trade: I bought in two batches this year, including adding during the June weakness. I’m happy with the recovery since then but I’m not looking to chase the price higher.

Takeaway: This is the kind of position I’m comfortable giving time to compound. Short-term pullbacks don’t bother me as much when I continue to believe the underlying business is getting stronger. For me, the bigger thing to watch is whether AI monetisation eventually justifies the scale of spending.

2026.01.07 ~ 2026.10.02 All orders
Cumulative P/L861.47 (USD)+38%
2026.01.072026.10.02
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!
M
melph

MU’s AI-driven memory demand is impressive, especially with HBM but I don’t see the earnings profile as sustainable enough for me to own it long term. Memory remains highly cyclical and today’s strong pricing and margins could change quickly when supply catches up. Would rather own businesses with more predictable earnings and cash flow.

C
Captain's Watch
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Micron's 2027 Is 75% Sold

Micron says more than 75% of its 2027 output is already committed, and memory names followed through overnight. The 10-year touched its highest since 2002 before pulling back. At home, SGX is down abo...

M
melph

$IS ASIA HYG SD(QL3.SG)

Context: I wanted some exposure to Asian high-yield bonds as a way to diversify beyond equities and add an income component to my portfolio. The trade-off is that higher yields come with higher credit risk, so I see this as an income allocation rather than a growth investment.

My trade: I started building the position gradually, with two small purchases in September as the price softened.

Takeaway: I’m not expecting much capital appreciation here. For me, the attraction is the combination of regular income and diversification. I’m stillooking to add gradually, but I’ll keep an eye on credit quality, defaults and interest rates rather than simply chasing the yield.

2026.07.31 ~ 2026.10.01 All orders
Cumulative P/L-4.75 (SGD)0%
2026.07.312026.10.01
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!
M
melph

$Accenture(ACN.US)

Context: I bought ACN last year because I saw it as a long-term play on enterprise technology spending and digital transformation. The stock has had a difficult 2026 with concerns that AI could disrupt traditional consulting and pressure growth.

My trade: I only have a small position, so I’ve been comfortable holding through the volatility rather than averaging down aggressively.

The latest quarter gave me some encouragement. Revenue rose 7% in local currency to $18.7B, consulting also grew 7%, and new bookings reached $22.2B. FY27 guidance calls for 3–6% revenue growth.

Takeaway: The results don't remove my concerns about slower growth or AI changing the consulting model but they do show that client demand hasn't disappeared. For me, the next question is whether ACN can turn AI from a disruption risk into a new source of growth.

2025.07.03 ~ 2026.09.30 All orders
Cumulative P/L-113.73 (USD)-22%
2025.07.032026.09.30
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!
M
melph

$VanEck Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF(NLR.US)

Context: Have been interested in nuclear energy as a longer-term play on rising electricity demand, especially from data centres and AI. But this is a much more volatile theme than my core holdings and the recent pullback is a good reminder of that.

My trade: I started building NLR with two small purchases as the price came down. I’m keeping the position relatively small rather than chasing the nuclear theme after its earlier run.

Takeaway: I’m willing to sit through the volatility because I see the long-term energy demand story, but I don’t want to mistake a good theme for a low-risk investment. For me, position sizing matters here.

2026.04.20 ~ 2026.09.29 All orders
Cumulative P/L-184.48 (USD)-15%
2026.04.202026.09.29
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!
M
melph

$S&P Global(SPGI.US)

Context: SPGI sits behind many important parts of the financial system, from credit ratings and market intelligence to indices, data and analytics. Its diversified business model gives it exposure to several recurring sources of revenue, while the Ratings business can benefit when debt issuance picks up.

My trade: I’ve been building my position gradually during the pullback.

Takeaway: I’m comfortable adding in small amounts rather than trying to catch the bottom. I’m looking at SPGI as a long-term compounder, while keeping an eye on valuation and the more cyclical parts of the business.

2026.03.09 ~ 2026.09.28 All orders
Cumulative P/L-138.34 (USD)-3%
2026.03.092026.09.28
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!
M
melph

$Keppel DC Reit(AJBU.SG)

Context: AJBU is an income-focused REIT for me. Data centres provide essential infrastructure and recurring rental income, but REITs remain sensitive to interest rates because higher borrowing costs can pressure distributions and valuations.

My trade: I added more shares recently, building on my existing position. The lower price gave me an opportunity to increase my exposure to the dividend income.

Takeaway: I’m mainly looking for sustainable distributions over the long term. If interest rates ease, REITs could get some support from lower financing costs but I still want to see AJBU improve its underlying performance before adding even more.

2025.04.28 ~ 2026.09.18 All orders
Cumulative P/L24.51 (SGD)+2%
2025.04.282026.09.18
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!