UBS: Nvidia Vera Rubin BoM
Core Financial Breakdown (UBS BOM Analysis)> Total Superchip Cost: $38,902 for the Vera Rubin core unit (1 Vera CPU + 2 Rubin GPUs).> Total Memory Share: $24,297 (62%) goes entirely to memory semiconductors (HBM4 and SOCAMM2).> CPU vs. GPU Memory Split:SOCAMM2 (Vera CPU): $19,355 (49.8% of total cost) — a massive cost driver.HBM4 (Rubin GPUs): $4,943 (12.7% of total cost).> Memory Dominance in Costs: Memory semiconductors account for approximately 62% of the total cost of the Vera Rubin superchip. Out of a total cost of $38,902 per unit, memory components—specifically HBM4 and SOCAMM2—make up $24,297.> Comparison to Previous Generations: In the previous Blackwell Ultra-based GB300, memory accounted for 53% of the cost; this has jumped to 62% for Vera Rubin. While the total cost of the superchip increased roughly 2.1 times compared to its predecessor, the cost specifically attributed to memory rose 2.5 times.> Infrastructure Scale: The scale of the "Vera Rubin NVL72" system is immense. A single server rack contains 74.7 TB of DRAM. To put this in perspective, the LPDDR5X capacity in just one rack is roughly equivalent to the memory found in approximately 4,500 premium smartphones.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)
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Third Bridge experts on CPO:
> Despite the hype, mass commercial adoption is not expected before the second half of 2027. Traditional pluggable optical modules are expected to remain the industry standard throughout 2026.> CPO is likely to see early adoption in "scale-out" networking (connecting switches, GPUs, and CPUs) within distances under 500 meters. Deployment into GPUs themselves and "scale-up" chip-level systems is a harder engineering challenge, likely not seeing broad adoption until 2030–2032.> Experts note that training workloads (which require extreme bandwidth) are better suited for CPO, while inference workloads are deterministic and remain well-supported by traditional pluggable modules.> A primary hurdle for CPO is maintenance. With traditional pluggable modules, a failed component can be hot-swapped. With CPO, a failure in the optical subsystem might require replacing an entire board, leading to significantly higher costs and operational disruption.> Nvidia and Broadcom are expected to dominate the CPO market, potentially controlling 70% of it by 2028. Nvidia is expected to capture around 50% market share through its leadership in AI infrastructure, while Broadcom could secure roughly 20% through continued expansion of its deployment footprint. > Large cloud providers (like Google, Meta, AWS, Microsoft) are cautious about CPO because it risks "vendor lock-in." Pluggable modules allow these companies to mix and match components from various vendors, whereas CPO ecosystems are more restrictive.> Through substantial investments in optical component companies like Coherent and Lumentum, Nvidia is positioning itself to control the entire AI value chain—from GPUs and networking switches to the optical modules themselves.> Experts expect pluggable optical modules to remain the dominant solution for cloud giants such as Microsoft and Amazon throughout 2026. CPO adoption is expected to begin in earnest during 2027, reaching approximately 20% to 30% penetration by 2028.E![图片 1，共 1 张]()
Speedrun | Upcoming Events This Week - [August 10 - August 14, 2026]
Stay informed on events/news for the coming week.> Iran Conflict & Strait of Hormuz:President Trump has privately floated the idea of walking away from the Iran War without a nuclear deal if Iran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz.Negotiations have complicated as Iran is demanding billions in US payments and the removal of US troops.Trump is expected to remain patient as long as gas prices stay stable, noting that Iran is likely unable to revive its nuclear work during his presidency.> Memory vs. Optics Market Rotation:Driven by a viral tweet from Jukan on optics versus memory, short-term rotation is favoring optics over memory.Key catalysts include the death of Korean leveraged ETFs triggering LP redemptions, Nvidia shifting toward optics for Rubin Ultra clusters, and consensus forming that memory prices will peak within two quarters.Analysts are beginning to pull back on aggressive DRAM ASP forecasts, creating selling pressure in memory while other tech/semis climb.> Key Earnings & Economic CalendarsA heavy week for AI trade and tech earnings, featuring prominent names like Nebius, Super Micro Computer, Cisco, Coherent, Cerebras, Lumentum, CoreWeave, and Applied Materials.> Economic Data Releases:Wednesday: July CPI Inflation data.Thursday: July PPI Inflation data.Friday: July Retail Sales data and August Michigan Consumer Sentiment data.Link 👇E![图片 1，共 1 张]()
Earnings season is almost complete.
With nearly 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported, this earnings season is shaping up to be remarkably robust. Second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) are projected to surge 30% year-over-year when excluding investment mark-ups from Alphabet and Amazon—well above the 22% consensus forecast from July 1st. Factoring in those one-time gains for Alphabet and Amazon, EPS growth jumps to nearly 50% year-over-year. Furthermore, 76% of companies have surpassed EPS expectations, matching last quarter's beat rate, which marked the highest level seen since 2021.$Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US)
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Tight MLCC supplies are driving a component scramble and price war, with Yageo reporting a surge in long-term customer supply contracts.
> Surging AI Demand & Tight Supply: Strong AI infrastructure requirements (servers, data centers) have driven delivery lead times out to 12 to 16 months, pushing major manufacturers like Yageo and Murata to near-full capacity.> Bidding Frenzy & Price Premiums: Small and medium-sized buyers face compressed allocations and are paying 2x to 3x normal prices on urgent orders to secure scarce inventory, while tier-one customers take priority.> Long-Term Contract Rush: AI clients are increasingly locking in multi-month or multi-year supply through binding long-term agreements with Yageo to mitigate future chain risks.> Capacity Expansion: Yageo is actively scaling production sequentially across its global footprint (Kaohsiung, Suzhou, Vietnam, and Mexico) as new equipment arrives.> Broad Industry Tailwinds: Leading Japanese producers are reporting similar momentum; Murata upgraded its annual profit forecast on data center demand, and Taiyo Yuden cited AI server growth accelerating the shift toward high-capacitance components.E![图片 1，共 1 张]()
Here is the Citi note on DRAM/NAND pricing.
Price Target & Valuation Adjustments> Micron Technology (MU) Target Price: Trimmed to $1,150 (down from $1,400) based on an 8x P/E multiple (previously 10x) and a revised C27 EPS to reflect lower market multiples from mixed memory peer results.> Rating: Maintained at Buy.DRAM & NAND Pricing Outlook> Deceleration: Both DRAM and NAND price increases are expected to decelerate quarter-over-quarter over the next four quarters, with prices projected to peak in 2Q of next year.> Revised Pricing Assumptions:DRAM Q/Q price adjustments shifted to 23%/9%/2%/0%, with 2H27 down 3% H/H.NAND price assumptions moved to 29%/7%/0%/-1%, with 2H27 down 5% H/H.FY27/28 EPS estimates lowered by 1%/2%.Margins & Contracts> Gross Margins: Expected to decline from current mid-80s levels and stabilize in the mid-70s next year as prices cool from a high base.> Long-Term Agreements (LTAs): Micron has approximately 40% of DRAM bits locked under LTA pricing contracts.Key Risks & Competition> China Capacity Additions: Competition from Chinese manufacturers poses the biggest risk to the thesis:YMTC: Plans to add 50k–60k wafer starts to its existing 200k operating capacity next year, boasts decent NAND tech, and aims to be the largest NAND player by 2030.CXMT: Plans to add 50k to 350k DRAM capacity next year, currently has low yields, and targets ~600k by 2030.While US restrictions limit direct sales into the US, European and other regional data center sales could indirectly impact Micron.Mixed Memory Peer Performance> Samsung: Reported memory sales and operating profit ahead of consensus driven by strong ASP growth in 2Q (mid-40% QoQ for DRAM, high-60% QoQ for NAND). Samsung is allocating 60–70% of planned capacity to LTAs, having signed 5 with major data center customers and finalizing 5 more.> SK Hynix: Sales and operating profit came in just below consensus due to higher HBM exposure and slight product push-outs. DRAM ASPs rose 30% QoQ and NAND ASPs rose mid-50% QoQ. Signed 10 LTAs (typically lasting 5 years), including a $500B contract with Nvidia.> Sandisk: Missed September-quarter revenue guidance due to more muted pricing, but secured 8 NBMs (diverse data centers and OEMs; weighted average duration of 4 years) covering 50%–66% of their bits in FY27/28 respectively.$Micron Tech(MU.US) $DRAM $EWY $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $SK Hynix(SKHY.US)
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Fubon Securities: Nvidia
Chip Output Forecast & Adjustments> Rubin Ultra Adjustments: Following NVIDIA's cancellation or push-out of its Kyber rack and four-compute die Rubin Ultra GPU, the interposer size is now expected to see only a minor increase compared to Rubin.> Interposer Estimates: The model estimates 12 interposers per CoWoS wafer for Rubin and 10 for Rubin Ultra.> Total Chip Output: NVIDIA's total chip output is projected to increase to 12.4 million in 2027, up from 8.2 million in 2026.> Short-Term Volume Revisions: Rubin's volume forecast for the short-term has been revised down to around 1 million due to earlier thermal design changes and production push-outs.> Overall 2026 Output: Higher Blackwell volume in 3Q26 keeps the 2026 CoWoS chip output forecast largely unchanged.> Supply Chain Impact: Production delays in Rubin negatively impact suppliers with higher dollar content; for example, KYEC revised its 2026 full-year guidance down to the high 30s from 40%.BOM Cost & Pricing Estimates> HBM4 Cost Increases: NVIDIA's HBM 4 cost is projected to rise to $31–32 per GB (up from $17–18 per GB for HBM 3e in 2026).> GPU Pricing: NVIDIA's Rubin GPU price is expected to skyrocket to $78–80K, assuming NVIDIA maintains a gross margin (GM) of 75–80% on chips.> ASIC & Other Projects: HBM costs for other GPUs and custom-ASIC projects are expected to reach $35–36 per GB, effectively doubling HBM costs by 2027.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US)E![图片 1，共 1 张]()
GF Securities: Nvidia's NPO Forecast
Nvidia NPO OE (Operating Environment/Units)> Shipments: Projected to grow from 5.8 million units in 2027 to 8.1 million units in 2028.> Growth: Represents a year-over-year (YoY) shipment growth of 39%.Nvidia's TIA / Driver Financials> ASP (Average Selling Price): Remains constant at $65 per OE across both years.> Total Addressable Market (TAM): Expected to expand from $379 million in 2027 to $527 million in 2028.> TAM Growth: Achieves a 39% YoY expansion.Market Context & Breakdown (2028 Highlights)> NVL72 Adoption: Expected to grow from 20% adoption in 2027 to 30% in 2028 (with 162k NPO NVSwitch trays/blades).> NVL144 Adoption: Rises from 0% in 2027 to 15% in 2028 (contributing 63k NPO NVSwitch trays/blades).> CSP (Cloud Service Provider) Scale-Up NPO: Demonstrates massive acceleration, with total market TAM for TIA/Driver surging by 482% YoY to reach $2,560 million in 2028.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)E![图片 1，共 1 张]()
BofA: Nvidia
Q2 Earnings ExpectationsQ2 Sales Estimates: BofA expects a $3B–$4B beat, projecting $94B–$95B in sales (compared to the company's guidance of $91B).Guidance Raise: Anticipates a 3%–4% raise for Q3 guidance to $107B–$108B, driven by the rollout of next-generation Vera Rubin shipments, new Vera CPU ramps, and robust cloud capital expenditure trends.Memory Cost Inflation & MarginsGross Margin Resilience: Despite rising memory pressures, NVIDIA's gross margins (GM) are expected to hold steady at a healthy ~73–74% over time (compared to ~75% currently).Compute Racks Impact: The upcoming Vera Rubin generation will see a minimal ~60bps gross margin headwind on compute racks (total DRAM at ~12.7% of rack price) compared to Blackwell Ultra (~12.1%).Offsets: Potential cost inflation is expected to be offset by NVIDIA's preferential sourcing through long-term agreements (LTAs), strong ties with memory vendors like SK Hynix, dynamic pricing power, and near-record GPU rental prices.Ecosystem Partner Financing & Free Cash FlowManageable Commitments: Direct equity investments into ecosystem partners total roughly $70 billion to date (including $30 billion in OpenAI, up to $10 billion in Anthropic, and $5 billion in Safe Superintelligence).Free Cash Flow (FCF) Coverage: This $70 billion commitment represents only ~15% of NVIDIA's projected $470 billion in FCF generation over the next two years (CY26–27E), leaving ample room to maintain its 50% FCF shareholder return pledge.OpenAI/SB Energy Backstop: A potential $250 billion backstop for OpenAI's Ohio campus lease is a back-end-loaded (2028–30+) contingent guarantee, triggered only in the event of an OpenAI default.GPU Rental PricesNear-Peak Valuations: Rental prices for flagship NVIDIA GPUs (A100, H100, and B200) are holding firm near their historical highs as of August 2026.Blackwell (B200) Leadership: The B200 commands the highest hourly rate in the index, trading steadily at $5.66/hr following a sharp upward re-rating earlier in the spring.Hopper (H100) Stability: The H100 index sits at $2.80/hr, demonstrating steady upward momentum and persistent demand for mainstream AI training infrastructure.Ampere (A100) Resilience: The legacy A100 remains locked near its multi-month peak at $1.64/hr, underscoring sustained utilization even for older-generation compute tiers.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)E![图片 1，共 4 张]()
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SemiAnalysis: SpaceX 10GW
SpaceX's Gigawatt Ambitions & 2027 ProjectionsMassive Expansion: SpaceX aims to conservatively build and deliver an incremental 6–8 GW in 2027 alone, with potential to exceed 10 GW.CapEx Requirements: At an estimated $50B per GW, this translates to $300B–$500B in CapEx for 2027, putting SpaceX on par with AWS and Google.Path to $300B ARR: Driven by high-value, value-based pricing and rapid deployment timelines (3–5 months lead time), SpaceX is projected to reach $300B in ARR by the end of 2027.Financing & Strategy: Funding is expected to be managed via Nvidia vendor financing (explaining Elon Musk’s focus on being Nvidia-exclusive) and industry-high pricing that pays back capital in under a year.The Profitability of AI InferenceHigh Margins at Scale: Frontier model companies (OpenAI and Anthropic) can generate over $100B/GW/year in revenue when selling API inference on a GB300 cluster, significantly outstripping rental costs.Revenue Climbs Up the AI Stack: On a GB300 cluster, annualized revenue per gigawatt scales dramatically from basic neocloud rental ($12B) up to $100B+ at the model-layer token API level.Microsoft’s "2026 Awakening" & Largest Offtaker RoleSurge in Contracting: Microsoft has rebounded from a leasing pause to contract over 10 GW year-to-date across binding PPAs, ESAs, neocloud offtakes, and self-build construction starts, representing ~$300B in new commitments.The Revenue Opportunity: Having reworked its OpenAI deal in April 2026 to remove the old 20% revenue share, Microsoft has a massive incentive to procure power rapidly to capture a $100M/MW/year revenue opportunity.Azure Growth Impact: Contracted compute from partners like SpaceX could accelerate Microsoft Azure's revenue growth from ~42% to over 100% (peaking at 179% in 4Q27).SpaceX’s Execution SpeedProven Track Record: SpaceX and xAI have demonstrated unprecedented deployment speeds, such as building Colossus 1 (300MW) in 122 days and scaling the Southaven power plant from 27 turbines (~495MW) in Feb 2026 to 69 turbines (>1.2GW) by July 2026.Onsite Power Generation: Hitting the 10 GW target heavily relies on scouting suitable land with easy permitting, leveraging fast greenfield/retrofitting methods, and utilizing massive onsite gas generation.E![图片 1，共 1 张]()
Nomura: DRAM/NAND Wafer Capacity
Samsung Electronics> DRAM Capacity Growth: SEC’s DRAM capacity is projected to expand significantly from 655k wafers/month at the end of 2024 to 1,264k wafers/month by the end of 2030, driven by heavy capacity additions in phases like P4, P5, and P6. Year-over-year (y-y) growth peaks notably in 2030 at 22%.> NAND Capacity Trends: NAND capacity fluctuates in the near term (with dips in 2025 and 2027), but ramps up significantly toward the end of the decade, reaching 533k wafers/month by the end of 2030 with a 29% y-y growth.SK Hynix> DRAM Expansion: SK Hynix ramps up total DRAM capacity from 474k in 2024 to 1,183k wafers/month by end-2030. Major growth spurts are expected in 2028 (25% y-y growth) and 2030 (26% y-y growth), largely supported by new expansions in the Y1, Y2, and Y3 phases.> NAND Trajectory: After experiencing capacity contractions between 2025 and 2027, SK Hynix's NAND production surges sharply starting in 2028 (up 58% y-y) to hit 580k wafers/month by end-2030.Micron> DRAM Growth & Regional Split: Micron’s DRAM capacity grows steadily from 310k in 2024 to 690k wafers/month by end-2030. Expansion is anchored by both its Taiwan facilities (scaling from 195k to 430k) and its US/Japan operations.> NAND Stability: Micron’s NAND capacity remains stable at 130k wafers/month through 2026 before expanding via new fab lines (such as Fab 10 B and Fab 11) to reach 280k wafers/month by 2029–2030.$Micron Tech(MU.US) $DRAM $EWYE
$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US): "Revenue for 1.6T transceiver Q1 next year will be double Q4 or more than double."
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$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US): "we've talked to several of the major CPO customers, they love our laser. We just can't make enough of them to be to be involved in their current first generation deployments because there's just not enough capacity."
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$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US): "laser is the biggest bottleneck for the transceiver business."
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$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) on potential Chinese transceiver ban:
"We believe that we are and expect to remain the largest manufacturer domestically of optical transceivers for AI. So certainly anything that you know, would heighten interest in that is good for us."E
$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US): "Looking ahead, we continue to expect by the end of this year that we will be capable of producing over 650,000 pieces of 800G and 1.6T products per month. By the end of next year, 2027, we continue to expect to grow our production capacity to be able to produce over 930,000 pieces of 800G and 1.6T products per month, with over half of that output coming from Texas."
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$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US):
“Q2 was a pivotal quarter for AOI. We delivered record revenue for our fifth consecutive quarter and achieved an important milestone as we returned to non-GAAP profitability in the quarter. Further, we saw a strong volume ramp of our 800G products, which more than doubled sequentially,” said Dr. Thompson Lin, AOI’s Founder, President and Chief Executive Officer. “Strong demand for high-speed optics alongside high-volume adoption of our 1.8 GHz CATV products generated powerful results during the quarter. We continue to see robust customer engagement around our 800G transceivers and 1.6 Tb products, and we forecast that demand will continue to outpace our production capacity through mid-2027. We continue to believe the fundamental drivers of long-term demand for our business remain robust and we are uniquely positioned as a key supplier to the AI, cloud infrastructure, and CATV markets.”“We’re pleased to deliver second quarter results that were in line with or better than our expectations,” said Dr. Stefan Murry, AOI’s Chief Financial Officer and Chief Strategy Officer. “During Q2, we continued to make solid progress on our production capacity ramp, particularly for our 800G and 1.6Tb products. We have a total manufacturing capacity approaching 200,000 units per month and continue to expect by the end of this year that we will be capable of producing around 650,000 pieces of 800G and 1.6 Tb products per month. We’re working hard to expand our capacity, and we continue to anticipate steady sequential revenue growth this year.”E
$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) earnings should be very interesting...I will be covering it for everyone. The 3 main things to focus on, in my opinion:
1. Capacity ramp2. Supply/demand dynamics3. China transceiver banShould be nice to see color on all 3 in the conference call 👍E![图片 1，共 2 张]()
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UBS: Fiber
Fiber Connections by GPU Generation> Hopper & Blackwell: Both utilize a 100 Gb/s SerDes Bandwidth and require 2 fibers per lane. However, Blackwell doubles the GPU bandwidth (0.8 Tb/s) and lane count (8 lanes), resulting in 16 fibers per GPU compared to Hopper's 8 fibers.> Rubin & Feynman (2028): Both advance to a 200 Gb/s SerDes Bandwidth. Rubin maintains 8 lanes (16 fibers/GPU), while Feynman scales up to 16 lanes and 32 fibers per GPU with a 3.2 Tb/s GPU bandwidth.Scale-Out Fiber Demand Outlook> Growth Trajectory: Total scale-out fiber demand is projected to grow at a ~41% CAGR through 2028.> Driver Breakdown:Near-term growth (up to Rubin) is primarily driven by increased overall GPU production volumes while fiber content per GPU remains stable.A major step change occurs in 2028 with the rollout of Feynman, driving a significant surge in fiber-per-chip demand and scale-out growth as its production mix scales up.Scale-Up vs. Scale-Out Networks> Current Deployment Limits: In current AI architectures, fiber is restricted to scale-out networks (connecting racks across a cluster).> Copper Transition: Connections within a rack (GPU-to-GPU) currently rely on copper. However, as nodes expand beyond single racks, growing bandwidth and distance requirements will eventually drive the conversion of these copper links over to optical fiber.$Corning(GLW.US)
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Citi: Optical
Core Market Growth > Market Opportunity: The global optical interconnects market is expected to hit USD 92 billion by 2028 (with a 65% 3-year CAGR), accompanied by an Average Selling Price (ASP) growth of an 18% CAGR.Optical Chip > Optical Chip Demand: Total demand is estimated at 1.714 billion units by 2028 (~62% to 63% CAGR from 2025). > CW Laser Chips: Projected to see explosive growth to 987 million units by 2028 (~114% CAGR). > EML Chips: Projected to reach 718 million units by 2028 (~34% CAGR).$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) $Macom Tech(MTSI.US) $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US) $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US)
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Goldman Sachs: Memory
> General Market Trend (2027 vs. 2026): While the DRAM and HBM markets are expected to see slightly tighter supply-demand conditions compared to NAND—especially in 2027—the NAND market itself is also projected to experience a larger supply tightness in 2027 relative to 2026.> Peak Tightness in 2027: Supply tightness across all three segments generally peaks in 2027E, showing the most negative S/D percentages:DRAM: Reaches its peak tightness at -5.9% in 2027E (up from -5.0% in 2026E).HBM: Reaches its peak tightness at -6.0% in 2027E (up from -5.4% in 2026E).NAND: Reaches its peak tightness at -4.6% in 2027E (up from -4.4% in 2026E).> 2025 Starting Baseline: In 2025, market tightness was relatively lower across the board, with HBM at -3.4%, DRAM at -1.4%, and NAND seeing the least tightness at -0.6%.> Projected Moderation by 2028: By 2028E, supply conditions are expected to ease slightly across all categories compared to the 2027 peak:DRAM: -3.9%HBM: -4.3%NAND: -3.0%$Sandisk(SNDK.US) $DRAM $Micron Tech(MU.US) $EWY
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$Sandisk(SNDK.US): "We have over four years of visibility now, at economics, which are extremely attractive."
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$Viavi Solutions(VIAV.US): "In terms of share volume 800 is still the biggest driver, but 1.6 is ramping very quickly."
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$Viavi Solutions(VIAV.US): "We're still seeing a lot of 400G. It's going to be multiple nodes in parallel running. And the mix gradually shifting to 1.6T, taking the lead, followed by 800G. And I mean 400G is going to be around for quite a while as well."
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$Sandisk(SNDK.US): "In total, we now have NBMs with eight diverse data center and edge customers and reflect the conviction of customers have in their long term demand and the value they place on Sandisk. The length of our NBMs varies, extending up to five years with a weighted average duration of over four years."