Heroic Lifesaver

I believe the Fed chair had to be hawkish last week for credibility and to be fair he was doing the correct thing. The market as usual likes to over react and overthink.

I believe the upcoming job data will be crucial in market’s expectations going forward. A soft labour market is what the bulls want.

$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US)

$GLD

Context: My portfolio is heavily tilted toward high-growth technology and AI-related stocks, so I wanted an asset that could behave differently when macro uncertainty, geopolitical risk or market volatility rises. Gold fitted that role better for me than trying to time every market correction.

My trade: I built and continue to hold my GLD position primarily as a portfolio diversifier and hedge, rather than as a short-term momentum trade. The aim is to reduce overall portfolio fragility while allowing my higher-conviction growth positions room to work.

Takeaway: Not every position needs to outperform the market. Sometimes its job is simply to make the overall portfolio stronger and easier to hold through volatility.

@Captain's Treasure

$Broadcom(AVGO.US)

📍 My Call: US$389.50

💬 Why: Broadcom enters earnings with expectations reset after a substantial pullback while AI infrastructure demand remains strong.

I expect Q3 results to broadly meet or exceed guidance, with a constructive Q4 AI outlook restoring investor confidence.

However, elevated bond yields may cap multiple expansion, making a 3–8% post-earnings gain my base case.

p.s: I am unable to vote even though its not yet 3rd September which is when the vote closed so do consider this as my vote: +3 to +8% (up 3% to 8%) 🙏🏼

@Captain's Watch

@Captain Leo

IMHO, the oil chart looks like a bull trap. I have already sold off oil related names like Exxon Mobil and Chevron at these levels.

Everyone are still focused on the chips and the accelerators which to be fair are still relevant. However, I am more concerned with the beneficiaries such as energy, memory and networking etc. I want to see if they are truly benefiting. Companies like Nvidia and AVGO already have growth factored into their price.

Nothing surprising with Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. He has to state what is in line with the data and data does not point to inflation being tamed yet.

Well it is Walsh’s maiden Jackson Hole’s speech, the debut if I may say so. Looking at his style and demeanour as well as desire to stand aside and be different from his predecessors, he would probably not give too much away and say something like ‘We will continue to monitor inflation and are ready to act if we need to. I believe AI will have a deflationary effect on the economy and as such will not be too hasty in our decisions.’

$Sandisk(SNDK.US)

Sandisk will be the 5th chapter of this ongoing trade showcase episode. I thought it apt to close with one of the strong names in the sector named as the short term constraint for the AI buildout.

As we all know, during its earnings details, Nvidia mentioned memory as the short term constraint to scale AI. And in the memory sector, amongst the few behemoths, Sandisk stands out as a complementary provider and one of the very important producers of NAND.

Those who reads into the details will know that HBM is the other often quoted memory component. Both serve different functions and both are important.

So fundamental wise, Nvidia has confirmed the thesis but IMHO, the market is still pricing the memory names as a cyclical rather than embrace the fact that AI has changed this aspect.

Sandisk and Micron are both running PEGs of much less than 1 even at these prices.

Technically, I believe Sandisk is in an uber bullish 12 12 pattern with the market about to reprice and that is what that third wave will do.

NFA though but if supports hold and price is consolidating nicely, the bullish pattern looks pretty awesome.

@Captain's Treasure

It will be Fed chairman Warsh’s first speech at Jackson’s Hole and the market will be closely trying to figure out his stance. Hawkish or dovish? I don’t think he will say much but maintain that the Fed will do what is necessary yadah yadah. 🤓

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Usually I talk about Nvidia at the start of the week. But since Nvidia just posted results, I thought it relevant to do an update post on her as well as participate in the trade showcase event.

Earnings summary

Nvidia’s results beat across the board. Nothing surprising as she always does well. And hence the market always expects more. And the market did sell her off initially (on awesome results at that! What’s up with you Mr Market? 😂).

However, as guidance comes in,

1. It becomes clear that demand is far outpacing supply.

2. Estimates were pulled from 2028 to 2027.

3. Short term constraint is memory.

4. Mid term constraint is power, land and shell.

5. Gross margin drops from 75% to 72% due to memory costs.

Mr Market now seems to like that and is green pre market.

And so as the saying goes - The proof is in the pudding. AI is here to stay and that is confirmed with technicals and price action. The safest route is usually the obvious one.

@Captain's Treasure

Nvidia outperformed as expected and as expected as well, the market demands more (sounds much like Singaporean parents 🤭). I will elaborate more in my trade showcase highlight on Nvidia. 😊

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

This is an update of my earlier post and am readjusting my target estimate closing based on the latest information.

My latest closing price estimate for August 27th close is 225.5.

I arrived at $225.50 by updating the forecast around the new post-earnings information rather than relying on the original pre-earnings estimate. The most important input is that NVDA is now trading around $226 pre-market, which tells us the market is assigning a much more bullish value to the earnings report and forward guidance than it was before the release.

I then adjust for the fact that Nvidia’s results and guidance were stronger than consensus, which supports a higher valuation range, while also accounting for the tendency of large pre-market gaps to experience some intraday profit-taking. The next meaningful resistance area appears to be around $229–230, so I do not assume the entire pre-market momentum will continue uninterrupted.

Putting those factors together, my highest-probability scenario is that NVDA opens strong, holds most of the earnings gap, but gives back a small portion of the move during regular trading. That creates a likely closing zone of roughly $224–229, with the centre of that distribution around $225–226. Therefore, my updated single-number estimate is $225.50.

@Captain's Watch

Nvidia looks pretty interesting just before its earning’s announcement. Technically in no man’s land really and she could go either way. But what she says is so important it might determine tech’s general direction in the short term.

$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US)

Gold has been on a streak lately after what seems like a local bottom on 17th July. To be fair, the technicals were there and I have mentioned that the waves were in place for a bottom at around those dates.

(Kindly refer to my earlier posts if you need verification so you can see that I am sincere and transparent in my sharing)

Now have we bottomed? If you look at social media, you will see many opinions. Some think we are going straight to new highs from here. Some thinks this is just a bounce and gold has yet to bottom. Again to be fair, both have their own valid thesis.

As for me, I am leaning cautiously bullish. At the moment, gold has broken out of its wedge on 5th Aug and rallied on increased (but not markedly so) volume in what looks like a 5 wave pattern. Price reached the 200% extension on 12th Aug and consolidated till 18th Aug before extending to the 300% extension on 24th August on increasing volume. However momentum diverged. If you ask me, its a toss between this still being a third wave to this being the end of the fifth wave. A big block trade was done early yesterday at about the high before price retreated and then recovered into market close.

So institutions are active at these levels. Are they buying or selling? The tell will be price action.

@Captain's Treasure