Lemonade

Oil surging past $100 was clearly the single biggest market driver this week, setting off a domino effect through long-dated yields, risk sentiment, and the STI slide. While headlines focused on product launches like Apple, macro realities dictated actual asset prices. High energy costs directly pressure corporate margins and delay rate-cut expectations globally. In volatile environments like this, macro drivers outweigh single-stock catalyst- keeping cash flexibility and downside risk management top of mind until yield pressures ease.

Nvidia’s 8.74% surge proved that technical setups and options positioning often outweigh consensus pre-earnings fear. While standard estimates missed the upside, focusing on implied volatility compression and multi-day oversold bounces paid off. Moving forward, I’m prioritising risk management over directional bias: relying on options structures to hedge downside while letting momentum ride beat-and-raise cycles. Market reactions care less about headline numbers and more about where positioning sits right before the print.

Oracle ($Oracle(ORCL.US)) proved that real AI revenue growth (+121% cloud infrastructure surge) can outweigh broader macro feats, even with high PPI print pushing yields up. While broader tech remains under pressure ahead of the upcoming FOMC rate decision, strong enterprise AI demand shows fundamental winners will still decouple and soar. Staying selective on valuations!

My Call: US$162.10

Oracle’s massive cloud infrastructure surge (+121%) and $664B backlog prove that enterprise AI demand is converting into real revenue. Despite macro headwinds and hot PPI pressure keeping bond yields elevated, the fundamental OCI momentum outweighs broad market caution. I expect the stock to capture a +6% gain from Thursday 152.94 close, settling right around 162.10 as bulls step in post-earnings.

While valuation metrics remain elevated, historical patterns show Apple stock rising an average of +4.89% in the 60 trading days following launch events. If the long-awaited foldable iPhone translates hype into real consumer upgrades, this major form factor refresh should drive a strong multi-month post-event rally.

Nvidia’s 7-session drop lowers expectations before Q2 earnings. Strong $92.18B revenue consensus and solid Blackwell demand position NVDA for a 2% to 7% post-print relief rebound.

The September 3 Cybercab event isn’t just about hardware- the hardware was already unveiled. What actually matters for $Tesla(TSLA.US) is the capabilities of FSD vs v15, its scaling timeline, and whether Tesla can transform its end-to-end autonomy stack into a commercial robotaxi network. While Waymo relies on LiDar and HD maps, Tesla is betting pure vision and massive parameters can solve complex edge cases. September 3 will reveal if scalable vision- only autonomy is finally ready.

Despite mounting macro volatility driven by tariff clashes and geopolitical risks, structural shifts present clear strategic opportunities across key assets:

• Crypto Resilience: Bitcoin’s institutional adoption and regulatory momentum prove it is driven by structural backing, not just speculation.

• Defensive Stability: High-dividend indices like the STI offer key downside protection amid market choppiness.

• Playbook: Keep cash ready to accumulate high-conviction assets during tech realignments.

Walmart’s 9% drop despite beating earnings is a glaring signal about the US consumer. Slowing comp sales growth shows inflation and tighter budgets are finally biting, making even strong earnings look vulnerable when inflated by one-off tariff refunds. Paired with surging treasury yields and tech volatility, markets are clearly pricing in macro headwinds ahead. Caution is definitely warranted in retail and broader equities right now.

The +177% rally in $Moderna is a massive clinical milestone for mRNA tech, but chasing a parabolic move at this level carries significant downside risk.

While long-term growth for oncology mRNA therapies with $Merck looks promising, short-term profit taking and insider selling are real risks after such a huge leap. I’d rather sit this initial surge out and wait for a healthy pullback to build a position safely.

My Call : USD$132.50

Alibaba’s robust AI cloud momentum, highlighted by high-profile enterprise partnerships like Apple and Tesla, provides strong upside potential. Despite near-term margin pressure from strategic reinvestment, positive options market sentiment and strong bullish positioning ahead of the Q1 print support a solid post-earnings rally within the options-implied 6% range.

Fantastic … Thank you.

While broader markets slipped under geo-tension, AI memory demand continues to prove it’s the ultimate bottleneck. SanDisk, WDC and Micron ripping higher shows where real pricing power sits. Meanwhile, Druckenmiller exiting Micron right before the surge is a stark reminder that even institutional giants can misjudge macro timing. On the home front, STI holding steady above 5,768 reflects Singapore’s resilient fundamentals. Sticking with quality tech infrastructure and steady local dividend plays for the long run.