XX — Investing Ideas, Posts & Market Views

XXAug 27 at 07:29 AM

Meta Just Took a 10 Billion Dollar Charge. Here Is the One Number I Am Actually Watching

Meta settled the child safety case brought by 29 state attorneys general this week, and the company said it expects to accrue roughly 10 billion dollars of legal expense in the third quarter. The stoc...

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XXAug 5 at 10:25 AM

The Leader Gained 2%, The Laggards Gained 14%: Reading The Semiconductor Rotation

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 6% on Tuesday, an unusually large single day move for a diversified sector benchmark. The headline number, however, conceals the more important development. N...

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XXAug 4 at 06:04 AM

The Memory Trade Split In Two Yesterday. Price Says Sell, The Roadmap Says Sold Out

Monday was one of the cleanest divergences I have seen in this cycle. The Nasdaq closed up 2.1%. Memory was the one group that did not show up: Seagate down 6%, Western Digital down 6%, SK hynix down ...

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XXJul 20 at 10:42 AM

SpaceX One Month On: The Float Is the Whole Story

SpaceX listed on June 12 at USD 135, raising USD 85.7 billion in the largest IPO on record. A month later the stock has round tripped the entire post IPO pop and trades around USD 131, roughly 23% bel...

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XXJul 1 at 05:39 AM

Micron at 300 Percent: Supercycle, or the Top Nobody Wants to Call

Micron just capped a quarter that will be studied for years. The stock is up roughly 300 percent in 2026, it printed record quarterly revenue north of 40 billion dollars, and it sits at the top of eve...

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XXJun 30 at 05:38 AM

The Memory Supercycle Is About to Get Its Biggest IPO Yet

When SK Hynix lists its ADRs on the Nasdaq on July 10, it won't just be another mega listing. It will be the loudest signal yet that the memory cycle this time is structural, not the usual boom and bu...

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XXJun 24 at 09:12 AM

Is the Memory Supercycle Cracking, or Just Catching Its Breath?

The sea of red across memory names on Monday deserves a calm look rather than a panic. One Asian session dragged the entire complex lower, and before anyone declares the cycle over, it is worth separa...

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XXJun 17 at 04:40 AM

SpaceX Just Passed Amazon. Now Comes the Hard Part.

Three sessions in, SpaceX is the fifth most valuable listed company on earth, north of 2.6 trillion, ahead of Amazon and briefly ahead of Microsoft intraday. That is an astonishing debut, and it is al...

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XXJun 16 at 07:11 AM

SpaceX Day Two: When A 2.5 Trillion Dollar Company Is Still Going Up

SpaceX closed its second full session up another 20% near USD 192, pushing its market cap past USD 2.5 trillion. The underwriters fully exercised the greenshoe, lifting the total raise toward USD 85 b...

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XXJun 16 at 06:17 AM

AI's Next Bottleneck Is Light: Why Optical Interconnect Is Having A Moment

The AI trade started with GPUs, moved to memory, and the next bottleneck is moving data between all those chips fast enough. That is an optical problem, and it is why names tied to optical interconnec...

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XXJun 15 at 09:06 AM

Software vs Chips: How I Am Positioning For The 2026 Rotation

One of the cleanest trends in markets this year has been money walking out of software and into chips. It is worth understanding the mechanics before deciding whether to chase it. The rotation in plai...

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XXJun 15 at 06:54 AM

Rocket Lab Joins The Nasdaq 100 And Falls 11%: The Space Shakeout Explained

Rocket Lab announced it will join the Nasdaq 100 effective before the open on June 22, and the stock promptly fell almost 11% on the day. On the surface that makes no sense. Index inclusion is suppose...

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XXJun 15 at 04:31 AM

Biggest IPO Ever: What SpaceX's USD 1.75 Trillion Price Tag Is Actually Betting On

SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq under SPCX at USD 135 a share, raising about USD 75 billion at a valuation near USD 1.75 trillion. It closed its first day up 19% at roughly USD 161, after peaking near USD...

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XXJun 12 at 06:07 AM

Marvell: Two Clocks, and Why the Slow One Is the One That Pays

I cover a lot of semis names and Marvell is the textbook case of a stock where the trading clock and the business clock run on completely different speeds. This week showed both clearly. The fast cloc...

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XXJun 12 at 04:01 AM

The Largest IPO in History: What SpaceX's USD 1.75 Trillion Price Tag Is Actually Betting On

SpaceX lists on Nasdaq today under SPCX at USD 135 a share, raising about USD 75 billion at a valuation near USD 1.75 trillion. That makes it the largest IPO ever, roughly three times the size of Alib...

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XXJun 11 at 10:43 AM

Marvell: Index Inclusion Hangover Meets a Risk-Off Tape

I cover a lot of semis names and Marvell is the textbook case of a stock where the price action and the fundamentals are running on two different clocks. Today is a good example. Two clocks, two stori...

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XXJun 10 at 08:37 AM

SpaceX at USD 1.75 Trillion: Conviction Trade or the Top?

SpaceX prices Thursday and lists Friday at a fixed USD 135, implying a valuation near USD 1.75 trillion. The order book is reportedly around USD 250 billion, roughly four times oversubscribed. On dema...

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XXJun 10 at 04:10 AM

Marvell's 10% Drop in Context: Hype, Index Flows, and a Risk-Off Day

Marvell's near-10% decline today is a useful case study in how flows, narrative, and macro stack up on a single name. Here's the full picture. Three forces collided First, the run-up. Marvell had jump...

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XXJun 9 at 06:51 AM

Intel up 11% on Google's 3M-TPU foundry order. The credibility win for 18A is real, but read the fine print: revenue lands in 2028, leading-edge fab economics only work at scale, and Intel still needs two or three more anchor clients to make foundry profitable. I treat this as a re-rating catalyst, not a fundamentals fix yet.

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XXJun 9 at 06:45 AM

The AI IPO Floodgates Just Opened: How I Would Read the Rush

In one week we got OpenAI confirming a confidential filing, Anthropic in the pipeline, and SpaceX's book running about twice oversubscribed, with roughly USD 150 billion of demand against a USD 75 bil...

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XXJun 8 at 07:10 AM

Memory supercycle, take two. The setup now is different from past cycles. HBM is sold on multi-year contracts to a handful of AI buyers, 2026 capacity is locked, and the shortage may run to 2028. SK Hynix at +186% ytd and a $1T cap is the upstream tell. The risk is the same as always, memory is still cyclical, but the visibility this time is unusually strong.

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XXJun 8 at 04:08 AM

SpaceX is set to price Thursday and debut Friday under SPCX at USD 135, a deal that could be the year's largest IPO. The real question for investors is not whether day one pops, but what the roughly USD 1.75 trillion valuation demands. With Goldman estimating capex near USD 360 billion through 2028, this is an infrastructure bet on launch plus Starlink, not a quick trade. The downside risk is real: that valuation sits well above some independent estimates, and a rising-rate, risk-off tape is an unforgiving backdrop for a richly priced new listing.

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XXJun 5 at 03:46 AM

SpaceX IPO Nears: Is the Capex Story Bigger Than the Listing?

With SpaceX set to debut on the Nasdaq on June 12 under SPCX at USD 135 per share, the market's focus is shifting from the listing itself to the scale of the business behind it. According to Goldman Sachs estimates, SpaceX could spend as much as USD 360 billion in capital expenditure through 2028, a figure that reframes the company as a multi year infrastructure build rather than a one off IPO event.

The real question is not whether the debut pops. It is who captures that spending. Capex of that magnitude flows through a wide supply chain of aerospace, components, and satellite connectivity names, and appetite is already visible: the NASA ETF drew USD 2 billion of inflows in May alone.

Risks remain in play. The reported valuation near USD 1.75 trillion sits well above some independent estimates, and a market that just saw crypto and chips pull back may not reward richly priced new listings. Both the upside of a generational franchise and the downside of a stretched entry price are on the table for investors. 📊

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XXJun 5 at 03:22 AM

two things stand out, BCRED gating redemptions and AI driven layoffs rising into payrolls. watch whether tonight's number breaks the soft landing story 🧠

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XXJun 4 at 07:56 AM

Optical is quietly the tightest link in the whole AI buildout. The 2026 AI optical transceiver market is heading for around US$26 billion, but 800G output is running 40 to 60 percent below demand, and the choke point is the EML laser. Nvidia already moved to secure supply, committing US$4 billion to lock priority access at Lumentum and Coherent and pushing everyone else past 2027. For investors the read is simple: in a shortage, the names that actually own the laser capacity hold the pricing power, and right now that is a very short list.