TheCollector

The dot plots are kind of redundant. Things can change quickly week to week. But I am still surprised it's a pretty large majority thinking of another rate hike this year. The more effective way to curb inflation is to replace the current POTUS.

Fed had resisted hike long enough. market don't think they can resist longer. a 25bp hike in the near term may allow economists to assess it's effectiveness in the current environment. Separately, Walsh may be in a conundrum.. presumably he wouldn't want to upset Trump too much by being freely hawkish. at least that's what I hope.

Talks about slowing down AI is nothing new. It is indeed warranted that development has to be done in a responsible way. but this isn't something that will actually slow anyone down. a lot od noise, pullback is good for entry.

based on recent past, when the cme fedwatch tool indicates more than 60% rate hike probability into the FOMC meeting, a rate hike will happen. the probability is now close to 90%, so it's very likely. it will anger Trump, but a rate cut is not possible now. it will damage credibility and throw Walsh and the fed under the bus

anticipating an overwhelming reception of Apple's limited release of the foldable iPhone. die hard apple fans will be fighting over it. The majority of them are affluent. the premium pricing and controlled supply is why you can show off and feel good having one.

Today's biggest topic is the increase in income for ministers. I find it hard to reconcile that their salaries are tagged to top income earners especially when we know that income inequality is widening. apparently it's to compensate for the opportunity cost of other income streams such as participating in Longbridge activities where they can potentially earn much more, given their calibre

Obviously, there is still time until fed decision next week. The probability of a hike this meeting is still very much borderline. Inflationary pressure is real, but I'm still bullish. I think the rate hikes may not come until 2027. I'm optimistic we see some good news in the remaining of 2026 that could curb rate hikes possibilities. Just my opinion.

The week is concluding with a strong Aug job report and that's pulling back those rate hike expectations. The relief from yesterday may be short lived.

perhaps Walsh was spooking the market with hawkish talks, setting a rate hike expectations. if the results turn out to be staying put, it will feel like a rate cut for some.

Keppel DC reit is one that I'm still holding today. The dividends had been stable and the valuation seems to hold relatively fine. The current private placement is not given to retail investors, so that's kind of disappointing.

I'm still more concerned about us core PCE inflation at 3.3% yoy, way higher than fed 2% target. esp. when we're close to the next FOMC 16 sept; a rate hike is looking real. that said, there's still enough time for good news that can delay the hike.

With no dot plots and little guidance on rate hikes, traders place extra weight on Kevin Walsh speech. a hawkish hint can now cause a relatively huge wave in the market

Kevin Walsh created more uncertainty to the market. Expect more volatility. but it does seem that at least the second rate hike for the year is off the table.