morning_wind

Undoubtedly, AI will affect and replace a large portion of current knowledge/information-based white-collar jobs (including mine). The speed of this process may mainly depend on how quickly the entire social organization can rebuild for AI. Fortunately, in some cases, behind such massive transformations, there are also opportunities for compensation, like a decent severance package for buying out seniority.$ Alphabet(GOOGL.US)$ Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)$ SMIC(00981.HK)

$ Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)$ Alphabet(GOOGL.US), thanks to the 13F, the quality of the two StockPro picks the OP is responsible for has been verified once again.

$ NVIDIA(NVDA.US) is catching up on gains, bullish on new highs.

$ Alphabet(GOOGL.US) Are you starting up too? Sold some 370 calls expiring on the 51st, welcome to the meltdown.

In the CPU sector, almost all institutions missed the market rally in April$ AMD(AMD.US)$ Intel(INTC.US)

$ Alphabet(GOOGL.US)$ NVIDIA(NVDA.US) The most important marginal change in this earnings report is: downstream customers are starting to concentrate, all of them are big clients, so the accounts receivable period is also started to (reasonably) lengthen.For Google, when the cycle comes, everything is a positive. Originally, the demand for computing power was concentrated among a few large customers. Now, big clients like Anthropic and Meta have officially announced their purchase of TPUs. Whether it's for balance considerations or genuine ROI considerations, it's a blatant hint to the market that Google's TPUs can compete with NVIDIA. Considering Google has many other advantages, it's only a matter of time before their market cap aligns with NVIDIA's, and this is just the beginning...

Weekly semiconductor highlights By $ Alphabet(GOOGL.US) Big Banana Model Pro.

$ AMD(AMD.US) The 410 call expiring mid-month also looks like it's about to be called away 😅, and as expected, $ XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK) is also scary today. It's time to start a phased reduction of positions.

The process of building the investment portfolio in 2026 is quite different from previous years, mainly because I found it difficult to identify new stocks that meet my satisfaction in terms of win rate and odds, and are worth a large position from my circle of competence. In terms of results, the opening portfolio of 2026 doesn't seem to have changed much from the closing positions at the end of 2025.Overall, as briefly mentioned earlier, considering the combined effects of the election year, the change of the Federal Reserve chairman, and the typical strong government cycle, I think the overall capital policy environment for U.S. stocks will be more optimistic than in 2025 (hopefully no misjudgment). On the Hong Kong stock side, new stocks keep draining liquidity. Overall, I allocate 7:3 to U.S. stocks and China concept stocks. From the trend of interest rate changes, it doesn't seem advisable, but in the medium to long term, I think the cost of interest rates is acceptable relative to absolute returns. Specifically for U.S. stocks, gold, Bitcoin, financial innovation, oil and gas, etc., are still not my strengths. I might occasionally speculate on the sidelines, but they won't be included in the portfolio. XBI and LABU have rebounded enough, so I won't allocate them in 2026. Instead, I'll focus on AI.1. $ Alphabet(GOOGL.US) , $ NVIDIA(NVDA.US)  , and $ Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)  are still the absolute main large positions. The market consensus is that Alphabet is leading overall but not cheap, NVIDIA is quite controversial, and TSMC's geopolitical risks are hard to handle. Personally, I think Google's recovery is complete, but there's still about 30% room for improvement. I think NVIDIA is at a low point. In fact, it's now a competition between two major alliances: Google vs. NVIDIA+OpenAI. My view is that they will repeatedly outperform each other and eventually both grow. TSMC is the most stable, with its newly expanded capacity and 2nm mass production ensuring enough growth. As for geopolitical risks, I don't consider them. If the risks materialize, I think other stocks within my circle of competence won't be safe either.2. This year, AI undoubtedly needs to focus on application ROI and Agents. Overall, I favor 2B scenarios > 2C scenarios and predict the most successful AI coding scenario, where Anthropic's lead will shrink. Apart from big players, the certainty of new players in this part is still unclear. The experience of independent applications like Cursor and Manus under the encroachment of LLM models is quite thought-provoking, and I have many ideas to expand on later. In terms of allocation, this is where 2026 differs most from 2025, but the overall position isn't high because it still doesn't feel very clear. Specific names include Apple, PATH, FIGMA, and ServiceNow.

$ Microsoft(MSFT.US), $ Alphabet(GOOGL.US), and $ Amazon(AMZN.US) — these three cloud giants' capex have all reached $200 billion. The primary market valuations of the two unlisted companies, OpenAI and Anthropic, are already very close to one trillion dollars. As long as AI continues to develop at a high speed, any pullback caused by concerns about demand, macro policies, or geopolitics is a good opportunity for rebalancing and enhancing returns.

Under the pressure of interest rate cuts, small-cap stocks like $ SPDR S&P Biotech(XBI.US) are rising much faster than large-cap stocks like $ Alphabet(GOOGL.US)😂