GALAXY ENT

Galaxy Entertainment edged higher today, supported by the Macau women's volleyball event catalyst and improving gaming sector recovery outlook. According to recent reports, the volleyball event brings increased foot traffic, while Citi research notes the group's leading share in the Premium Mass market; HSBC data shows Macau gaming GGR rose 9% week-over-week. Q4 earnings demonstrate strong momentum with operating revenue of HKD 13.02 billion (up 18.31% YoY), net profit of HKD 2.72 billion (up 24.28% YoY), and operating income up 30.22% YoY with net margin at 20.86%. The stock fell to HKD 33.80 during the morning session before rebounding to HKD 34.38 at the afternoon close, essentially flat versus yesterday's HKD 34.34 close. On valuation, the stock is down 11.02% year-to-date and 22.25% from its 52-week high of HKD 44.22, though it trades above both its 20-day moving average of 31.86 and 60-day moving average of 31.62. Multiple institutions including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and CLSA maintain positive ratings and see undervaluation opportunity, though sector recovery sustainability remains to be validated by ongoing consumption data.

Galaxy Entertainment closed nearly flat at HK$33.660, but beneath was an intraday rollercoaster: morning session surged to a daily high of HK$33.780 at 09:46 Beijing time, then plummeted to HK$33.260 by 11:05, before an afternoon rebound from 33.420 to close. Recent Macau women's volleyball event has emerged as a key catalyst—Citi research highlights Galaxy's benefit from the event with the highest premium mass market share; multiple institutions forecast improving Macau gaming revenue trends. Fundamentals remain solid: Q4 revenue of HK$13.024 billion grew 18.31% YoY, net profit surged 24.28%, and EPS climbed 24.23%; with a healthy 20.86% net margin. At PE 13.81, the stock trades well above its 20-day moving average of 31.37 and 60-day average of 31.56. However, year-to-date decline of 12.89% and 23.88% discount to the 52-week high of HK$44.22 suggest market confidence in Macau recovery remains tentative.

Galaxy Entertainment surged 6.3% to HKD 33.60, driven primarily by the recent women's volleyball event boosting foot traffic and consumer spending in Macau. Citi's latest report highlights the company ranking first in premium mass market share surveys, benefiting from additional consumer opportunities tied to the event. Financially, Q4 2025 net profit grew 24.3% year-over-year with operating profit jumping 30.2%, indicating margin improvement. Against a backdrop of gradually recovering Macau GGR expectations, multiple brokers including HSBC and Citi maintain or upgrade ratings, making Galaxy their top pick in the sector. From a price perspective, the stock has rebounded 17% from its 52-week low and trades above its 20-day moving average, though it remains 13% below year-to-date entry points. Current valuation at 13.8x PE appears reasonable. However, some brokers like Jefferies remain cautious on Macau's July GGR growth trajectory, and upcoming data releases could drive volatility.

Galaxy Entertainment closed down 0.94% at HKD31.62, after surging to a session high of HKD31.92 at 09:47 before profit-taking pressure emerged in afternoon trading, reflecting market caution amid mixed signals on Macau casino recovery. On the earnings front, Q4 2025 results showed operating revenue of HKD13.02 billion (+18.31% YoY) and net profit of HKD2.72 billion (+24.28% YoY), yet the stock remains down 18.17% year-to-date and 28.5% below its 52-week high of HKD44.22, trading at relatively depressed levels. The industry outlook remains divided: HSBC noted last week's Macau casino revenue rose 9% and maintained bullish stance, while Jefferies forecasts July GGR could decline up to 9% YoY, yet JPMorgan and CLSA still rank Galaxy Entertainment as the sector's top pick, suggesting underlying fundamentals remain supported by near-term recovery expectations.

Galaxy Entertainment advanced 1.2% to HK$31.92 today, primarily supported by strengthening fundamentals in Macau's gaming sector. HSBC's latest data indicated that Macau gaming revenue rose 9% in the most recent week, with management expectations for progressive month-over-month improvement, providing strong fundamental tailwinds for the stock's near-term performance. The latest quarterly earnings reveal Q4 EPS of HK$0.6205, representing 24.23% year-over-year growth, with total revenue reaching HK$13.024 billion, up 18.31% annually, while maintaining robust net profit margins at 20.86%. On the institutional front, JPM continues to position Galaxy Entertainment as the sector's top pick, while CLSA maintains its buy rating, reflecting emerging consensus among major institutions regarding progressive sector recovery prospects. That said, Jefferies issued a cautionary assessment that Macau's July gaming revenue could face headwinds, potentially declining up to 9% year-over-year. From a valuation perspective, the current P/E multiple of 13.1x remains attractive relative to growth, and with year-to-date declines of 17.39%, the stock retains 27.82% upside potential back toward the 52-week high of HK$44.22.