YOURAN DAIRY

Recent guidance for interim profits of RMB 739-903 million has supported recent gains. Today saw intraday volatility with morning strength at HK$4.44 before afternoon weakness to HK$4.23, ultimately closing at HK$4.30, up 1.4%. The stock trades 58% above its 52-week low yet remains down 14% year-to-date, currently trading above both 20-day and 60-day moving averages. Q4 revenue of HK$5.77 billion grew 7.95% year-over-year while operating income of HK$1.26 billion rose 9.87%, with net losses narrowing 60% compared to the prior year. Thin liquidity and continued unprofitability warrant caution.

China Youran Dairy declined nearly 3% despite market enthusiasm for mid-term profit guidance of RMB739–903 million, which initially drove the stock higher to 3.98 HKD in morning trading before profit-taking pressure pulled it down to 3.84 HKD at the afternoon close. Financially, both EPS and net profit remain negative in the latest two quarters, yet show year-over-year improvements exceeding 60%; operating revenue and profit grew 7.95% and 9.87% respectively, demonstrating early traction in cost reduction efforts, though net margin at -1.31% signals the path to profitability remains incomplete. Positioning-wise, the stock has fallen 23.2% from year-start at 5.0 HKD and sits 27% below its January peak of 5.29, but has bounced 41% from late-June lows of 2.72 and trades above both 20- and 60-day moving averages, indicating recent stabilization. A constraining factor is limited liquidity, with turnover at just 0.56%, which may amplify short-term swings.

China Youran Dairy rose about 7% today, extending gains following Yili's confirmation as the largest shareholder. The latest financial results show improving operations, with Q4 losses per share narrowing by over 60% year-over-year, operating revenue growing 7.95% to HK$57.66 billion, and operating profit rising to HK$12.62 billion. Core profitability and milk yield indicators have turned positive, underpinned by a recently completed private placement at HK$3.92 per share and China's anti-subsidy measures on EU dairy imports. From a valuation perspective, the stock is down 20.8% year-to-date and trades roughly 25% below its 52-week high of HK$5.29, leaving room for potential upside. Multiple brokers maintain buy ratings. The company remains unprofitable however, and investors are divided on the timing of a return to profitability.

The stock delivered a volatile close after an intraday rally: the morning session surged to 3.870 HKD by 11:38, an approximate 5% gain from yesterday's 3.690 close, but the afternoon brought profit-taking pressure that drove the stock to 3.700 HKD by session end—just 0.27% above the prior close. This double-top intraday pattern mirrors market hesitation between Yili Group's strategic support (having become the largest shareholder) and the company's persistent loss situation. The latest two quarters reveal improving operational metrics: Q4 2025 operating revenue reached HK$5.77 billion, +7.95% year-over-year, and operating profit grew 9.87%, though net loss stood at HK$75.5 million—a 60.57% improvement in losses year-over-year. On valuation and positioning, the stock is down 26% year-to-date, trades 30% below its 52-week high of 5.29 HKD, yet has recovered 36% from June's 2.72 HKD low, currently trading below the 3.92 HKD private placement price set in April. With turnover at just 0.6%, the stock's limited liquidity keeps it oscillating between strategic promise and the reality of ongoing losses.

China Youran Dairy closed at HK$3.69, down 0.27%, having swung between HK$3.65 and HK$3.80 intraday. Yili Group's strategic investment making it the largest shareholder (36.1%) via HK$3.92/share placement provides main support. Q4 operating revenue grew 7.95% and profit 9.87% year-over-year despite consecutive quarterly losses, showing operational improvement. The stock has declined 30.25% from 52-week high HK$5.29 and is down 26.2% year-to-date, trading above 60-day average HK$3.27. Continued losses and shareholder dilution require attention.