Alcoa

Alcoa surged 5.1% during regular trading, recovering from a pre-market low of 44.50 after the company trimmed its annual alumina production guidance. The stock rallied to an intraday high of 46.60, closing well above yesterday's 44.35. Q2 earnings show a PE of 9.67x and PB of 1.67x, suggesting reasonable valuation. However, technical weakness persists: the stock is down 17.58% YTD and remains below its 20-day MA (48.88) and 60-day MA (61.23), with a 44.77% decline from the 52-week high of 84.38. Meanwhile, ongoing production issues at the Pinjarra refinery due to Cyclone damage continue to weigh on the outlook.

Alcoa shares declined throughout the regular session, falling from a pre-market high of $46.95 to close at $43.98, a drop of approximately 4.7%, primarily due to the company lowering its annual alumina production outlook connected to issues at the Pinjarra facility. Despite posting a strong Q2 with revenue up 31.41% YoY to $3.966 billion and net profit surging 151.23% YoY to $407 million, the positive earnings momentum was overshadowed by the capacity reduction news. The stock now sits 47.88% below its 52-week high of $84.38, with a YTD decline of 22.22%, and trades well below its 20-day ($50.80) and 60-day ($62.32) moving averages, indicating persistent technical weakness. However, the stock stabilized around $43.98 in after-hours trading, suggesting the market may be gradually pricing in the updated guidance.

AA.US opened low and rallied during the regular session on July 2, climbing nearly 3% from $48.45 to $49.86, a 4.96% gain. The rebound came after the stock plunged over 10% following the company's $4.1 billion acquisition of South32's bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets. Morgan Stanley's reiterated 'Overweight' rating supported today's recovery. Q1 revenue fell 5.22% year-over-year to $3.193 billion, net profit dropped 21.15% to $425 million, while net profit margin improved to 13.31%. The stock at $49.84 remains 41% below its 52-week high of $84.38 and 18% below its 20-day moving average ($61.15). The forward P/E of 12.81 and P/B of 1.93 reflect valuation concerns. However, the stock is still down 11.85% year-to-date.