Komatsu

How $Ouster(OUST.US) actually competes in the market:

30,000 ft view + lidar adoption curve.

Four different pools:

1. Automotive OEM: fastest growing & mainly Chinese

2. Western Automotive/Robotaxi: their main auto opportunity

3. Automation, Robotics, Mapping: largest revenue pool

4. Smart Infra: software entry point

---

1. Automotive OEM:

Chinese car makers are standardizing 2-5 lidars per vehicle across their 2025-2027 models.

Companies like: BYD, Li Auto, Xiaomi, Great Wall Motor, Changan, Leapmotor.

This is the high-volume, low-ASP market.

Hesai's AT series sells at ~$150-400 per unit + Chinese OEMs are now the primary demand driver.

Hesai shipped 1.62M units in FY25 (+223% YoY) and is guiding toward ~3M units in FY26.

Rough estimate is that Chinese firms hold ~90% of the total automotive lidar market.

$Ouster(OUST.US) has no material share here + cannot compete on price at this ASP level.

This is a deliberate decision to not compete though + not to be conflated as an operational failure on their part.

Seen some misinformation here recently, so had to highlight upfront.

---

2. Western Automotive/Robotaxi:

This is $Ouster(OUST.US)'s main automotive opportunity.

Waymo, Motional, Zoox, May Mobility, and Baidu Apollo all need good + safe lidar.

ASPs are ~$1k-$5k per sensor depending on performance tier.

Volume is lower but design wins are multi-year.

$Ouster(OUST.US) has the Motional relationship (via Velodyne Alpha Prime inheritance)

And the Rev8/DRIVE Hyperion qualification, which directly addresses this pool.

---

3. Industrial Automation, Robotics, Mapping:

$Ouster(OUST.US)'s largest revenue generator currently.

Warehouse AGVs: Vecna Robotics, Cyngn, Balyo

Autonomous mining: Komatsu

Mobile robots

Professional mapping/survey

ASPs are ~$500-$3K per sensor.

Volume is growing at 30-50% annually.

This is less geopolitically sensitive than 1 & 2 above, but still subject to Chinese competition from the low end.

The Komatsu multi-yr deal (2025) is the example:

A multinational OEM paying a premium for a sensor qualified to its operations e.g. extreme dust/vibration/temps.

W/ a guaranteed 10-yr supply life.

And on robotics/physical AI: "The multibillion-dollar opportunity for functionally safe devices is a brand new area for us to expand in"

Pretty big TAM expansion coming like we all know.

---

4. Smart Infrastructure

- traffic management

- pedestrian safety

- crowd analytics

- intelligent transportation systems

All represent Ouster's BlueCity/Gemini market.

Global TAM for smart traffic sensors = ~$19B

This has the highest software attach rate + highest switching cost once deployed.

And U.S. federal funding tailwinds too.

---

Then for my view on where Lidar adoption is rn:

- Automotive OEM (China): Early majority -> Late majority. 3M+ units/year in 2026. Past the adoption knee.

- Western Automotive: Early adopter -> Early Majority. ~150,000-300,000 units globally in 2026. Waymo commercialization ramp + European regulatory approvals for L3 are probs the inflection triggers.

- Industrial Robotics: Early majority. AGV/AMR penetration is accelerating. Humanoid catalyst (Figure, Agility, Unitree) adds new demand beginning 2027.

- Smart Infra: Innovators -> Early adopter. Sub-5% of U.S. intersections deployed with lidar. TAM capture is still early.

---

As mentioned, just a *very* high level view.

There are ofc other nuances like their Fujifilm partnership which is v. bullish for colour lidar sensors for physical AI / robotics.