SPCX.US Weekly Report · 2026-W29
SpaceX has experienced sharp volatility following its IPO. This week, amid the impact of a temporary Starship launch abort, the stock fell 14.68% intra-week, marking a new low since inception. The market has shifted from June’s IPO euphoria toward reassessing fundamentals, triggering net capital outflows, though institutional investors show divergent long-term valuations—both short sellers are capitalizing and investors like Ark continue to accumulate. Valuationally, even after the sharp decline, the stock’s price-to-book ratio remains at an extreme level.
Weekly Performance
SPCX.US declined from 139.14 on Monday to 123.99 by Friday, representing a weekly loss of -14.68% (base: 145.30 from the prior Friday). The intra-week range of 22.8 points reflected an amplitude of 15.76%, demonstrating significant market volatility.
Daily progression showed a consistent downtrend: a modest dip on Monday, deeper weakness on Tuesday, consolidation and a break below 135 on Wednesday, further deterioration to 131 on Thursday, and a breakdown below 130 on Friday—marking a new low since mid-June. Friday’s volume of 83.7 million shares sharply exceeded typical daily levels, signaling cumulative selling pressure and its eventual release.
Over the prior 60 days, this week’s combined volume of ~320 million shares (averaging 63.7 million daily) represents moderate elevation compared to typical daily volumes of 60-80 million shares. This suggests downward pressure without panic-driven capitulation.
Valuation and Profitability
The latest financial metrics show a P/E ratio of -173.29 and P/B ratio of 46.95. The negative P/E reflects recent quarter EPS of -0.3776 and trailing-twelve-month EPS of -0.7155, indicating the company is currently unprofitable.
The price-to-book multiple is extreme at 46.95x, meaning the stock is priced at 47 times book value. Despite this week’s >14% decline, this valuation still embodies market optimism regarding SpaceX’s long-term growth potential. However, current losses highlight the importance of monitoring when the company achieves profitability inflection.
Recent quarterly guidance and consensus forecasts are not provided for this period; therefore, a comparison to earnings expectations cannot be determined.
Capital Flows
Capital flows for the week show net outflows across all investor tiers. As of July 17, large-cap institutional net outflows totaled 26.74 million units, mid-sized capital flowed out 69.03 million units, and retail investors (small orders) net outflows of 7.09 million units. The aggregate net outflow is roughly 10.28 million units, representing approximately 7% of total outflows.
This pattern aligns with the stock’s sustained decline—both institutional and retail participants are reducing exposure or adopting a wait-and-see posture. Notably, the magnitude of institutional and retail outflows is comparable, suggesting this is not isolated institutional capitulation but rather broad-based market caution.
Institutional Views
Complete institutional ratings distribution is not available for this period, so current positioning among buy, hold, neutral, and reduce ratings cannot be specified, nor the timing of recent rating changes.
However, news reports indicate Ark Invest recently purchased 147,805 SpaceX shares—a contrarian move against prevailing selling pressure. This demonstrates long-term value investors’ continued conviction in the company’s prospects despite near-term headwinds.
This Week’s Developments
Core Event
The Starship launch abort stands as this week’s most material corporate event. SpaceX halted the launch at the eleventh hour due to engine anomalies, directly triggering investor concerns about execution risk and technical readiness, becoming the primary catalyst for the stock’s decline.
Market response was swift and negative. From the June peak (200+), the stock has shed roughly $1 trillion in market capitalization. From the IPO reference price (~158), it has now fallen nearly 22%, first closing below IPO levels.
Market Sentiment Shift
IPO euphoria has faded and short interest expanded. Data shows short sellers have accumulated $5 billion in profits, with speculative capital pivoting decisively toward bearish positioning. This reflects a clear transition from June’s optimism to mounting caution.
Institutional Divergence
Contrasting broad-based selling pressure, select institutional investors continue accumulating. Ark’s buyback activity and analyst discussions around “dip-buying opportunities” demonstrate that professional money managers view fundamentals differently than near-term market sentiment.
Related News Coverage
- Prediction: SpaceX stock could be worth $5 trillion or more if this 1 thing happens
- SpaceX stock vs. Micron stock: Buy one and sell the other, according to certain Wall Street analysts
- SpaceX IPO Makes History, But Breaks Below Offer Price a Month Later, What Should Investors Watch in the Coming Months?
- SpaceX stock: Buy the dip?
- Ark Invest Increases SpaceX Holdings by 147,805 Shares
- Elon Musk isn’t a trillionaire anymore, says Forbes — SpaceX stock dropped after aborted launch
- SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Stays Pricey On Book Value Even After A 35% Fall
- SpaceX postponed a crucial launch - and its stock went on to close below IPO price for a second day
- SpaceX sheds about $1T in market value from June peak
- As SpaceX’s stock notches first close below IPO price, the company is gearing up for a crucial launch
Contradictions and Consensus
The stock’s rapid descent clashes markedly with institutional accumulation. Technical indicators (breaking IPO price), capital flows (broad-based outflows), and sentiment (expanding short profits) align downward. Yet the persistently high valuation multiple (P/B of 46.95) combined with current losses creates inherent valuation ambiguity.
Ark’s and other institutions’ accumulation suggests they view current pricing as excessively pessimistic, presenting a buying inflection. The validity of this thesis hinges on the company’s path to profitability and Starship program execution. Until these pivotal uncertainties resolve, market divergence and contradiction are likely to persist.