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Brent Crude Settles Above $100 for Third Straight Session

TRUMP WARNs OF POSSIBLE MINES IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ

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Citi projects Brent crude oil prices to hit $120 per barrel soon, citing under-pricing of supply disruption risks. In a bullish scenario, prices could reach $150 if the Strait of Hormuz reopens gradually in Q3 2026. The bank warns of a significant inventory draw of 1 billion barrels in 2026, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance. For 2027, Citi anticipates prices settling between $80 and $90 per barrel, contingent on Iran restoring oil flows.

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Citi bull case Brent hitting $150 near term as oil markets under-price disruption risk

Global inflation is surging due to an energy shock from the Iran war, which has disrupted 20% of global oil and LNG flows. U.S. wages increased by 3.6%, but prices rose by 3.8%, ending real income gains. This rising inflation has shifted central bank expectations from rate cuts to potential hikes, complicating global monetary policy.

- The Iran war has disrupted 20% of global oil and LNG flows, resulting in an unprecedented energy supply shock.  
- In the U.S., wages increased by 3.6%, but prices rose by 3.8%, eliminating a three-year period of real income growth.  
- This scenario has caused a shift in central bank expectations from potential rate cuts to possible hikes, complicating global monetary policy.

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Global inflation surges as energy shock reshapes outlook

UK regular pay grew 3.4% year-on-year in early 2026, meeting expectations amid rising inflation risks from higher energy prices. The Federal Reserve raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7%, the largest increase in recent cycles, influenced by oil market disruptions. Additionally, U.S. crude releases have reduced the Strategic Petroleum Reserve below 300 million barrels as global inventories sharply declined.

- UK regular pay increased by 3.4% year-on-year in early 2026, meeting expectations as policymakers monitor inflation risks related to rising energy prices.  
- The Federal Reserve raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7%, marking the largest upward revision in recent cycles due to disruptions in the oil market.  
- U.S. crude releases have reduced the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to below 300 million barrels amid a significant decline in global inventories during March and April.

UK wage growth steady as oil shocks fuel inflation risks

Cleveland Fed projects May inflation at 4.18%, with Q2 CPI annualizing at 6.89%, the highest in three years. The Iran war's impact has led to soaring oil prices, causing U.S. gas prices to rise rapidly. As a result, hopes for rate cuts in 2026 have diminished, with potential hikes anticipated under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

- The Cleveland Fed projects May inflation at 4.18%, with the Q2 CPI annualizing at 6.89%, marking a three-year high.  
- The Iran war has closed the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to rise significantly and leading to the fastest increase in U.S. gas prices in 30 years.  
- This inflation surge diminishes hopes for rate cuts in 2026, with potential interest rate hikes anticipated under the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Fed's May inflation forecast spikes, rate cuts unlikely in 2026

Cotton futures experienced losses ranging from 69 to 136 points on Tuesday. The US dollar index rose to $99.215, while crude oil fell to $103.81. As of May 17, 41% of the US cotton crop was planted, slightly ahead of the 5-year average. The Cotlook A Index decreased by 325 points to 90.65 cents. ICE certified cotton stocks increased by 10,053 bales, totaling 203,491 bales. The Adjusted World Price rose to 71.87 cents/lb.

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RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter will address inflation and the Middle East conflict at the Bloomberg Forum in Sydney. Her speech will focus on energy-driven price pressures and the impact of elevated oil prices on the Australian economy. Markets are expected to scrutinize her remarks for indications of how geopolitical risks may influence inflation and interest rates, particularly following three consecutive rate hikes by the RBA. Hunter's address signals the Bank's concern over persistent inflation and its implications for future monetary policy.

- Reserve Bank of Australia’s Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter will address the impact of inflation and the Middle East conflict at a Bloomberg investment forum in Sydney.  
- The speech comes after three consecutive interest rate hikes of 25 basis points, reflecting the RBA's concerns over persistent inflation driven by geopolitical factors.  
- The market will closely watch for indications that the RBA views conflict-driven oil prices as a lasting inflation factor, impacting consumer prices and future rate decisions.

RBA to address inflation risk from Middle East conflict at Sydney forum. Hunter no dove.

Japan's GDP grew 2.1% annualized in Q1, exceeding the 1.7% forecast, driven by consumption, investment, and exports. However, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted 20% of global oil supply, leading to rising fuel prices and inflation risks. The Bank of Japan may consider a rate hike in June due to increasing import costs affecting inflation and corporate profits.

- Japan's GDP grew 2.1% annualized in Q1, exceeding the 1.7% forecast, driven by increased consumption, investment, and exports.  
- The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has impacted 20% of global oil supply, causing fuel prices to rise and heightening inflation risks.  
- In response to escalating import costs affecting inflation and corporate profits, the Bank of Japan is considering a rate hike in June.

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Japan’s Q1 growth beats forecasts but energy shock looms

The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to impact the international crude oil market, with Brent crude prices hovering around $111 per barrel. OPEC production has fallen to a 20-year low, with severe supply disruptions in the Gulf region and rapid depletion of inventories, leading to a global oil inventory reduction of approximately 250 million barrels. Despite the pressure from the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, the tight spot market supports high oil prices, leaving investors in a complex situation. The oil ETF Huaxia (159189) covers the entire supply chain with low management fees

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The geopolitical deadlock is difficult to resolve, and the oil market is caught in a tug-of-war

ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher warns that a rate hike in June is unavoidable if the Hormuz Strait remains closed due to ongoing Middle East conflict, which could push eurozone inflation higher. He emphasized that the ECB's goal is medium-term price stability and that the duration of the conflict will significantly impact inflation predictions. Despite weak data, Kocher noted the Austrian economy's resilience and potential growth of 0.5% this year, contingent on the conflict's duration.

- ECB Governing Council member Martin Koch indicated that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and Middle Eastern conflicts persist, a rate hike on June 11 is unavoidable.  
- Koch emphasized the central bank's focus on mid-term price stability, warning that prolonged conflict could lead to higher inflation rates.  
- He noted that Austria's economy showed resilience in Q1, and growth could still reach 0.5% this year if tensions ease; however, external supply shocks limit government options.

ECB's Kocher warns June rate hike unavoidable if Hormuz stays shut

Jim Cramer warns that oil prices could exceed $119 if tensions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, stating that Trump's comments no longer positively influence prices. He noted that oil prices tend to rise with rumors of war and fall less with hints of peace. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil declined to $107.8/barrel, while Brent crude fell to $110.9/barrel. Analysts express concerns over inflation due to the ongoing Iran war.

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Jim Cramer Warns Oil Could Break $119 High If There Is 'No Peace,' Says Trump's Comments No Longer Impact Prices Amid Iran War

Money markets now assuming a Fed funds rate HIKE of +25bp by March 2027, which seems absurd given that the U.S.-Iran war will likely be long over by then and if history repeats, brent crude falls back to the $70/bbl range as it did in 2022 within 9-12 months after Russia invaded Ukraine. Too many investors are blindly extrapolating out the current environment rather than thinking logically through what happens next with midterm elections in November.

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On May 10, Trump tweeted angrily declaring Iran's latest response "completely unacceptable." Iran, through Pakistan, proposed an immediate ceasefire and the lifting of the naval blockade, while the US insists that Iran suspend uranium enrichment and restore passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The two sides remain fundamentally opposed. Do you think there's any possibility of breaking this deadlock?

On May 10, Trump tweeted angrily declaring Iran's latest response "completely unacceptable." Iran, through Pakistan, proposed an immediate ceasefire and the lifting of the naval blockade, while the US insists that Iran suspend uranium enrichment and restore passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The two sides remain fundamentally opposed. Do you think there's any possibility of breaking this deadlock?

US-Iran deadlock returns — is a ceasefire still possible?

- Wall Street’s main indexes opened higher following a two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran.  
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 393.7 points, the S&P 500 increased by 137.5 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 803.4 points at the open.  
- These gains were driven by expectations that energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz could resume, leading to lower crude prices.

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US STOCKS SNAPSHOT-Wall Street opens higher after US-Iran ceasefire

Pro Ultr Bloomberg Crude Oil(UCO.US)

Citi bull case Brent hitting $150 near term as oil markets under-price disruption risk

Global inflation surges as energy shock reshapes outlook

UK wage growth steady as oil shocks fuel inflation risks

Fed's May inflation forecast spikes, rate cuts unlikely in 2026

Cotton Fading Lower on Tuesday