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Cleveland Fed projects May inflation at 4.18%, with Q2 CPI annualizing at 6.89%, the highest in three years. The Iran war's impact has led to soaring oil prices, causing U.S. gas prices to rise rapidly. As a result, hopes for rate cuts in 2026 have diminished, with potential hikes anticipated under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

- The Cleveland Fed projects May inflation at 4.18%, with the Q2 CPI annualizing at 6.89%, marking a three-year high.  
- The Iran war has closed the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to rise significantly and leading to the fastest increase in U.S. gas prices in 30 years.  
- This inflation surge diminishes hopes for rate cuts in 2026, with potential interest rate hikes anticipated under the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

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Fed's May inflation forecast spikes, rate cuts unlikely in 2026

RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter will address inflation and the Middle East conflict at the Bloomberg Forum in Sydney. Her speech will focus on energy-driven price pressures and the impact of elevated oil prices on the Australian economy. Markets are expected to scrutinize her remarks for indications of how geopolitical risks may influence inflation and interest rates, particularly following three consecutive rate hikes by the RBA. Hunter's address signals the Bank's concern over persistent inflation and its implications for future monetary policy.

- Reserve Bank of Australia’s Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter will address the impact of inflation and the Middle East conflict at a Bloomberg investment forum in Sydney.  
- The speech comes after three consecutive interest rate hikes of 25 basis points, reflecting the RBA's concerns over persistent inflation driven by geopolitical factors.  
- The market will closely watch for indications that the RBA views conflict-driven oil prices as a lasting inflation factor, impacting consumer prices and future rate decisions.

Investinglive

RBA to address inflation risk from Middle East conflict at Sydney forum. Hunter no dove.

Japan's GDP grew 2.1% annualized in Q1, exceeding the 1.7% forecast, driven by consumption, investment, and exports. However, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted 20% of global oil supply, leading to rising fuel prices and inflation risks. The Bank of Japan may consider a rate hike in June due to increasing import costs affecting inflation and corporate profits.

- Japan's GDP grew 2.1% annualized in Q1, exceeding the 1.7% forecast, driven by increased consumption, investment, and exports.  
- The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has impacted 20% of global oil supply, causing fuel prices to rise and heightening inflation risks.  
- In response to escalating import costs affecting inflation and corporate profits, the Bank of Japan is considering a rate hike in June.

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Japan’s Q1 growth beats forecasts but energy shock looms

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U.S. Futures Index indicates a lower opening for Wall Street on Monday, with Dow futures down 157 points. President Trump's threats against Iran continue to impact investor sentiment, contributing to a spike in oil prices above $110 per barrel. Asian markets closed broadly lower, while European shares are mostly higher. The Housing Market Index for May will be released at 10:00 am ET, with expectations set at 34.

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The Indian rupee is expected to dip at Monday's open due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and high oil prices, settling in the 96.08 to 96.12 range after hitting an all-time low of 96.1350. The Reserve Bank of India intervened to support the rupee, which is under pressure from inflation concerns and a strong dollar. Brent crude prices rose nearly 2% amid geopolitical tensions, contributing to a risk-off sentiment in the market.

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Brent crude oil has surged above $110, while the dollar has also gained, challenging the typical inverse relationship. Japan is considering increased yen support after previous interventions were ineffective, amid concerns over U.S. Treasury sales. Additionally, strong labor data and ongoing inflation are leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve may shift away from its easing stance in the upcoming June meeting.

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UBS has reactivated its Global Supply Chain Stress Index due to alarming signals in global logistics, with stress rising at the fastest pace since the early pandemic. The index jumped significantly in March and April, prompting concerns over disruptions from the Middle East conflict. Analysts warn that continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to severe global trade impacts and a potential oil shortage, while rising yields may negatively affect equities.

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Oil prices keep swinging, and so do stocks worldwide

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Oil prices keep swinging, and so do stocks worldwide

Household energy bills are set to increase by £209 annually from July due to rising oil and gas prices linked to the Iran war. Cornwall Insight predicts the Ofgem price cap will rise by 13% to £1,850. The increase is attributed to escalating wholesale prices and geopolitical tensions affecting energy infrastructure. Analysts warn of potential further increases in October as demand rises. Government support for households may be necessary if prices remain high, with energy providers advising families to fix their bills to mitigate costs.

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California Governor Gavin Newsom criticized former President Trump as gas prices in the state exceed $6 per gallon, with predictions indicating a 74% chance prices could rise to $7.40. Newsom's office attributed high costs to inadequate planning during the Trump administration. Current gas prices average $6.146, with diesel over $7.145. Prediction markets show a significant likelihood of further increases in fuel costs, while analysts note global oil inventory challenges.

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Gavin Newsom Urges Trump To Lower Gas Prices As They Top $6— Traders Sees Over 70% Chance Fuel Costs Touch $7.40 In California

Money markets now assuming a Fed funds rate HIKE of +25bp by March 2027, which seems absurd given that the U.S.-Iran war will likely be long over by then and if history repeats, brent crude falls back to the $70/bbl range as it did in 2022 within 9-12 months after Russia invaded Ukraine. Too many investors are blindly extrapolating out the current environment rather than thinking logically through what happens next with midterm elections in November.

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On May 10, Trump tweeted angrily declaring Iran's latest response "completely unacceptable." Iran, through Pakistan, proposed an immediate ceasefire and the lifting of the naval blockade, while the US insists that Iran suspend uranium enrichment and restore passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The two sides remain fundamentally opposed. Do you think there's any possibility of breaking this deadlock?

On May 10, Trump tweeted angrily declaring Iran's latest response "completely unacceptable." Iran, through Pakistan, proposed an immediate ceasefire and the lifting of the naval blockade, while the US insists that Iran suspend uranium enrichment and restore passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The two sides remain fundamentally opposed. Do you think there's any possibility of breaking this deadlock?

US-Iran deadlock returns — is a ceasefire still possible?

- Wall Street’s main indexes opened higher following a two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran.  
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 393.7 points, the S&P 500 increased by 137.5 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 803.4 points at the open.  
- These gains were driven by expectations that energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz could resume, leading to lower crude prices.

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US STOCKS SNAPSHOT-Wall Street opens higher after US-Iran ceasefire

These 2x leveraged oil and gas ETFs have been really volatile lately. On one hand, UCO fell nearly 2%, while the short ETF SCO went in the opposite direction and rose over 2%. Over in natural gas, BOIL is up again. Combined, it's like riding a rollercoaster.Recently, the news flow for crude oil and natural gas has been too chaotic, swinging back and forth, chasing price levels. For those of you playing with leverage, always remember your survival line. Don't get knocked out by a big green or red candle overnight 🙏

Pro Ultr Bloomberg Crude Oil(UCO.US)

Fed's May inflation forecast spikes, rate cuts unlikely in 2026

RBA to address inflation risk from Middle East conflict at Sydney forum. Hunter no dove.

Japan’s Q1 growth beats forecasts but energy shock looms

Futures Point To Lower Open For Wall Street

Rupee caught in cross-currents of US yield surge, oil-led risk aversion