$FRESHPET(FRPT.US) -6% today after delivering FY’26 guidance largely in line with consensus after adjusting for the 1Q rev beat. Specifically, FRPT sees deceleration in FY 2026 rev growth of +8%-11% vs +7-10% prior guidance and vs +9% consensus, and no change in its FY’26 EBITDA forecast of $205M-$215M vs $211M est, despite +13% rev growth in 1Q (vs +11% exp), and a modest beat in 1Q EBITDA ($37.9M vs $36.9M consensus). 2Q consumption trends continue to decelerate from 1Q (see below), and with a likely tough 3Q compare (2025 3Q rev +14%) due to last year’s 3Q Sam’s Club buy-in, may explain mgmt’s relatively weak FY’26 rev guide (+8-11%) vs +13% in 1Q.
At a 2026 P/E of 42x and 2026 EV/EBITDA of 14x vs 5-year proj. rev growth of +9% and 5-year proj. EBITDA growth of +18%, FRPT is neither super-expensive nor super-cheap. With 13.1% short interest, the stock is becoming a crowded short.
The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.
