korbs23

SpaceX Q3 takeaways:

First GAAP profit since IPO, net around 4.4bn.

Superintelligence revenue up massively, now bigger than Starlink connectivity.

Capex still running ahead of cash flow, FCF negative.

Musk floated a Tesla merger via special committees.

Roughly 1.3bn shares unlock Thursday.

Lot to digest. The unlock is the near term overhang.

Netflix down about 40 percent from the highs into Wednesday feels overdone, but the setup is binary. If subscribers and the ad tier keep compounding, the derating reverses fast. If guidance disappoints again, the next leg down is ugly. I am not catching it before the print, I would rather pay up after confirmation.

Bought a bit at 329 yesterday. Everyone remembers the five trillion headline from two weeks ago and nobody wants it meaningfully lower, which is usually when I do. New CEO, leaner plan, no AI spending announced yet. If it breaks 315 I am wrong about the floor and I will say so.

Third year running that a big AI launch is supposed to kill creative software. Adobe closed 231 yesterday, down 1.9 percent, and that was the smallest drop of the five names people keep calling roadkill. Still here. I have been adding small since 240 and will keep doing that on any keynote dump. If it takes out 220 I am wrong and I stop.

Intel quietly raised 2026 capex from 18 billion to more than 20 billion and said 2027 will be significantly above that. strongest revenue growth in 15 years and the stock still cannot get out of its own way because free cash flow goes negative to pay for it. foundry is either the thesis or the anchor, no middle version.

first ever public quarter tuesday after the close, then up to 911.5 million shares unlock on thursday. street is somewhere near 6.9b of revenue. i want to own this eventually but buying two days ahead of that much supply getting freed is not investing, that is paying money to find out 🎲

been adding $Micron Tech(MU.US) the whole way down and today it finally pays off, +12% and back over a trillion. the memory selloff was forced liquidation not weak demand, ubs saying the same thing now. still my biggest position and im not trimming into strength

MU sitting at 872 after that 18% pullback this month and i've been adding the whole way down. HBM demand isnt slowing and the supercycle thesis is still intact for me. the kind of dip you look back on and wish you bought more

$Intel(INTC.US) near 94 and reports next week on the 23rd. the interesting bit this time: foundry yield reportedly hit 85% and Nvidia plus OpenAI showed up on the customer list. that's the first real evidence the turnaround might have legs. but i've been burned believing Intel turnarounds before, so i'm keeping a starter and waiting for the print, not front-running it. earnings on a beaten-down name is a coin flip. show me first.

$Intel(INTC.US) near 103 with a wild 10% intraday range, and our community is trading it heavily into the July 23 earnings. that's a gamble, not an investment, 18A yields are still the whole story and they keep slipping. i trimmed long ago and i'm not touching it before the print. earnings on a broken turnaround chart is a coin flip. sitting it out until the numbers show a real base.

$Intel(INTC.US) bounced with the chip complex on the CPI relief but it's still the laggard while SK Hynix does +27% and Nvidia hits new highs. our community keeps posting it, hope springs eternal, but 18A yields are the only thing that matters and they keep slipping. i trimmed long ago and i'm renting bounces at best, not owning the turnaround until it shows in numbers.

just flagging that Tuesday is a landmine: five big banks report the same morning June CPI drops, with oil ripping and Waller floating a hike. even great bank numbers can get steamrolled by a hot inflation print in the same fifteen minutes. i'm flat into it, not because banks are bad but because two binary events at once isn't a trade, it's a coin flip. read the reaction, don't predict it.

$Intel(INTC.US) down another 2.4% to 110 while SK Hynix debuts +14% and NVDA hits new highs. that contrast is the whole story: the memory and AI leaders are eating, Intel is still the one getting left behind. 18A is the only thing that matters and it keeps slipping. i trimmed weeks ago and i'm not touching it until the turnaround shows up in actual numbers. dead money at best.

STI ripped above 5,400 with UOB leading and $Realty Income MD(O.US)39.SG$ right there with it, all three local banks at record territory. and Temasek just posted a record S$518B portfolio. the SG story needs zero chip drama, just banks compounding and paying dividends. i hold OCBC for the ~5% yield and the fortress balance sheet. not adding at the highs, just collecting and holding.

$Intel(INTC.US) finally caught a bid, up 6 percent on Korea's massive chip and AI spending plan, and Cantor bumped the target to 150. still a show me story on the foundry but at least it stopped being the sector punching bag for a day

$Intel(INTC.US) down again while every other chip name rips. half year rebalancing dumping the laggards and the 18A yield still not there. value trap until they prove the foundry actually works, I'm staying out for now

Nvidia just quietly drifting with the chip selloff, nothing dramatic. $192 holding for now. not a buyer or seller here, just watching whether the whole AI complex wants to cool off more after that memory run.

every time Nvidia dips on some supply chain headline it's been a buy. loaded a bit more under $196, risk reward still skewed to the upside imo 💪

ok the bond sale thing actually spooked me. raising ~$20B in debt right after going public is not the flex people thought it was. third red day in a row and now we're back below the june 12 debut close. i went in small at IPO thinking it only goes up lol. it's joever for the easy money phase

the inclusion pop is mostly front run already, that is normal. the real question is whether the custom chip revenue with amazon and friends keeps compounding. index flow is a one day thing, the AI ramp is the actual thesis

HOOD up 12% after firing 10% of staff. the stock market really said less workers more line go up. peak 2026 energy